Premier League: Punting Pointers, stats and bet trends from the first four weeks of the season
The Sporting Life team look at the big trends and Punting Pointers from the first four weeks of the Premier League season.
After the shortest mid-season break in living memory, just a month into the 2020/21 campaign we have a chance to draw breath.
It certainly feels like there have been far more than four rounds of fixtures, a feeling brought on by the relentless nature of spread out kick-off times and constant midweek action in domestic and continental cups.
But while only a tenth of the Premier League's 380 matches have been played, we feel there has been enough evidence already to firmly place a handful of punts in our staking plan for the remaining 342; until something changes.
No-one can defend
Joe Townsend
In the opening Punting Pointers column of the season, Leeds, West Brom and Fulham were singled out for their appalling defending. This was then reinforced a week later when they all conceded at least three goals for a second game in a row.
What first appeared to be, in the main, an issue for the teams recently elevated from the Sky Bet Championship has quickly shown itself to be one afflicting all 20 Premier League clubs. Five teams having double-figure goals against columns can perhaps be explained, to some extent, by the odd freak result. But 15 teams conceding at least 1.5 goals per game, cannot.
Defences just haven’t been at it. I don't think we've been witnessing the best quality football of recent years, it's just been easier to score. Now that squads have been broken up for international duty it's difficult to see how that will change in the short-term - which is great for the neutral.
Last season 2.7 goals were scored per match and so far this term it's 3.8. Looking at the under/over breakdown, a staggering 26 of 38 fixtures have involved over 2.5 goals, and 18 of those have also hit the over 3.5 mark.
I'm as guilty as anyone of this, but for as long as this continues we should swap unders for overs, unless there is a phenomenal bit of value based on numerous factors. Right now the reliability simply isn’t there for small margin under goals bets, and the value probably isn't there for over 2.5 either.
Over 3.5 goals is usually somewhere around 6/4 for a regular match-up, but sometimes go higher than 3/1 when less ambitious teams face off. This is the smarter bet to look towards if you’re playing in this market right now.
While it may have sounded like I was letting the newly-promoted trio off the hook at the top of the piece, it’s only Leeds who get away scot-free. West Brom and Fulham have to be your bankers for over 3.5 goals, despite improved defensive showings last time out - both were playing against two of the lower scoring sides in the top flight.
And Chelsea, of course, rarely fail to be involved in a goalfest.
All or Nothing: Not just Tottenham Hotspur
Joe Townsend
I make no apologies for the copy and paste of that sub-heading from week two's column, because very little has changed. A little, but not much.
There was no draw in the first 20 Premier League fixtures of the season, which is pretty unbelievable. When Chelsea came from 3-0 down to grab a point at West Brom, it broke the duck and there have been only two more in the subsequent 17 matches, with one of those courtesy of Newcastle's 96th-minute VAR penalty at Spurs, which I won't get into...
Fewer than 8% of matches have ended in draws - last term it was 24%. There is also yet to be a 0-0, but of all the weird and wonderful anomalies being thrown up by this season's top flight that is the least bizarre. There were 21 goalless draws in 2019/20, so in theory we're only two games short of par.
I do believe this lack of draws is something that will last. There have been 12 matches settled by a one-goal margin, and a handful of two-goal wins that were extremely tight games.
Every fixture on matchday five has odds of comfortably greater than 2/1 on the draw, with several pushing towards double that. Teams want to win of course, but more than anything they hate to lose, so this trend is one that simply won't be allowed to continue.
Those odds are superb - take the value when the game feels like it's tough to call.
Get behind the defenders
Joe Townsend
Having opened up by giving defenders a real kicking, here's the bit where I really make up for it.
Maybe it was all that time in lockdown playing Fifa, doing keepy-uppies, scoring great goals on their own in the back garden and then suddenly thinking about what might have been if their mate's dad had played them up front instead when they were a kid, but the defenders have started the season on fire at the other end of the pitch.
Last season, defenders netted 121 times in the Premier League. So far this term they're on to a collective 17, which at the current rate would see them reach a total of 170 - a 40% increase.
You might be reading this thinking I am pointing out very little that you don't already know, because more goals are being scored generally, and you'd be fair enough to think that because that percentage increase is EXACTLY the same as the overall increase in goals per game.
But the anytime goalscorer prices on defenders do not reflect that 40% increased likelihood to score. For attacking players they do, with anyone you'd consider an obvious attacking threat for a team now more unappealing than ever in that market.
Both Michael Keane and Kurt Zouma had already found the net this season (Keane in the Carabao Cup) and yet were still priced at 12/1 to score anytime when they most recently did.
Some landed Ezri Konsa at 20/1 against Sheffield United, while in fairness Tyrone Mings' 16/1 price to find the net against Fulham made sense given his long goal drought.
And these are just a few that I've picked out. While the Premier League is still behaving in the mad way it currently is, defenders are superb anytime goalscorer punts for small stakes.
The same goes for a large number of them in the shots market, with attacking full-backs consistently given huge prices of around 3/1 to land a solitary shot on target.
Mark your card
Tom Carnduff
Goals have been the main talking point during the first four weeks of the Premier League season but there is value in the cards markets - with a total of 115 shown across the 38 games so far.
Of course, it depends on the referee in charge with some more strict than others. Stuart Attwell has shown 13 yellow cards in two games while Michael Oliver has only dished out eight in four. However, despite the official, some players can consider themselves lucky they haven't been carded more.
The one who stands out is Brighton midfielder Steven Alzate, he picked up a card in the recent defeat at Everton. He sits second in the Premier League for average fouls per game with 3.5 but that average has been dragged down by the fact he didn't commit one in the opening day defeat to Chelsea.
Since then, there have been four fouls against both Newcastle and Everton with a huge total of six in the loss at home to Manchester United. The fact that Alzate completed four successful tackles in that game highlights his involvement on the defensive side of things.
It's remarkable that he avoided a card against United considering the referee and the six yellow cards shown in the contest. Judging by his start of the season, he's going to be a player to watch out for in the cards markets.
Elsewhere, West Ham's Tomas Soucek is due a card based on his record so far. He's yet to be cautioned by the referee but averages 3.3 fouls per game; they have been spread more evenly across the four games in comparison with Alzate.
He had a season high of five against Arsenal while there were three in each contest against Newcastle and Wolves. The recent victory over Leicester, where the Foxes failed to create any real attack of note, saw Soucek still commit two fouls.
The midfielder is a great player to watch in the stats markets due to the fact he contributes in the shots department; there were a total of five against Wolves and every game has seen at least two. It's worth keeping an eye on the referee appointment for the Hammers' games after the international break because he is a player who has done well to avoid a card so far.
Leeds love a tackle
Joe Townsend
This theory has really come through in Leeds United's opening month back in the Premier League – their 96 tackles is 16 more than nearest challengers Everton and we’re only four matches in.
What’s vital is that we continue to finesse our betting on this market. Ahead of their meeting with Sheffield United on September 27 we suggested avoiding a total tackles bet because of the likelihood the Blades would employ a rope-a-dope tactic – and that proved to be the correct call, with the numbers even lower because of the Whites’ dominance for the majority of the game.
Here is Leeds’ tackle count by fixture: Liverpool (34), Fulham (22), Sheffield United (13), Manchester City (27).
We are beginning to get a fairly clear picture, and what it shows is that 20+ tackles is a smart play – it’s been odds-against in every Leeds game. As long as we sit out the odd week when opponents are likely to stand off, we’re on top while the price is in our favour. Against similarly aggressive opponents we should be bold – that most recent 27+ tackles v Man City delivered at 6/1.
Looking towards individual players, the Leeds full-backs are superb value.
Luke Ayling has made at least four tackles in every game, and 19 in total, with Sporting Life followers rewarded by Tom Carnduff’s 11/4 tip on 4+ tackles against Man City. Stuart Dallas was moved into midfield against Sheff United, but in his games at left-back he’s made seven, five and four tackles.
Marcelo Bielsa’s unrelenting commitment to high-pressing gives us the consistency we yearn for when predicting a tackle count. Let’s take advantage for as long as we can.
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