Premier League Outright betting tips: Preview and best bets for 2023/24 season
Football betting tips: Premier League outright
3pts e.w. Arsenal to win the title at 5/1 (General - 1/2 odds 1,2)
2pts e.w. Liverpool to win the title at 8/1 (General - 1/2 odds 1,2)
5pts Newcastle to finish in the top four at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
5pts Brighton to win the league without the 'big seven' at 13/8 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
An apex predator. That was Manchester City last season.
They suckered everyone into thinking they were the vulnerable, wounded animal through the first half of the season, sitting seven points off leaders Arsenal at the turn of the year, closer to fifth than they were to the summit.
Then the hunt began. Pep Guardiola turned up his trailblazing pace and introduced a new system that solved all of City’s problems, and with it, they reached a gallop.
With 10 games remaining, the eventual treble winners were eight points behind, but the momentum was with them, and it felt as if it was a matter of time before they caught their prey.
Their relentless pace saw them draw within striking distance, and the breathing down the hind of Arsenal eventually told as the young Gunners succumbed to the king of the jungle.
It was a third straight Premier League title for the all-conquering City, and a fifth in the last six seasons, so they are rightly installed as short-priced favourites to make it four in a row and extend what has now become a dynasty.
Will City be reeled in this season?
But, they are making a potentially bad habit of giving their prey a head start before devouring them just in the knick of time. Maybe it’s just the thrill of the chase. Maybe things are too easy for City.
Two of their four title wins across the last five seasons have seen them overturn a near double-digit points deficit. The season they didn't reign supreme saw them similarly give Liverpool a decent head start, but on that occasion they couldn't overcome it.
The way things are shaping up heading into 23/24, Pep’s side may want to avoid taking that risk, and while initially I had City down as the bet in the winner market, even at a general price of 8/11, there is an awful lot of change afoot for Guardiola, meaning I'm happy to oppose them.
Premier League winner 23/24 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 4/6 - Manchester City
- 9/2 - Arsenal
- 7/1 - Liverpool
- 10/1 - Manchester United
- 16/1 - Chelsea
- 25/1 - Newcastle
- 50/1 - Tottenham
- 100/1 bar
Odds correct at 1600 (06/08/23)
Firstly, in his own ranks, with Ilkay Gundogan - the man who lifted all three trophies last season – having left the club for Barcelona and Riyad Mahrez making a move to Saudi Arabia. Reports suggest Kyle Walker (Bayern Munich) could also potentially depart.
Secondly, after the Community Shield, City will participate in six competitions. The European Super Cup is next up, then the Club World Cup mid-season, as well as the usual FA Cup, Carabao Cup, Premier League and Champions League. All those games could take a toll on what is a thinner squad than years gone by.
Thirdly, while they were the best team according to the data last season, they were below the standard set across Pep’s tenure. Over the last seven seasons, City have averaged +1.56 xGD per game – last season it was +1.32.
Now that’s not to say they won’t improve, but even after the tactical changes post-World Cup they averaged +1.36 xGD per game. It’s still an exceptional level, and enough to win titles most seasons, but I feel as though a couple of challengers can close the gap enough to give themselves a great chance of dethroning the king.
Overall, while I am in agreement with the market in thinking they are the most likely winners of the title, I do think there is value in opposing them with an improving chasing pack.
Gunners to fire back at City
Last season's runners-up ARSENAL look to be well-placed to take another step forward under Mikel Arteta and prove serious contenders once again.
They have improved every season the Spaniard has been at the helm, and this summer have spent big to improve not only their squad, but their starting XI.
The signing of Declan Rice was a statement of intent, not only for the quality of player it brought in, but also the fee they paid - it really highlighted that the Gunners are in 'win-now' mode. They are serious.
Their xGD per game of +0.82 was well behind champions Manchester City (1.32), but they were a lot closer than that throughout the course of the campaign, keeping pace with Pep's side's underlying numbers through the first half of the season, with the gulf appearing from gameweek 29 onwards.
Injuries to key players played a part in Arsenal tailing off, as well as the pressure put on them by the serial winners who were hunting them, but the fact they hung with Pep's side for such a long time should be seen as a positive.
Maintaining that elite level throughout the full campaign is the next challenge, but the acquisitions that provide Arteta with a stronger starting line-up and more tactical versatility should give them a great chance of doing so.
As such, and given the fact they may only need to find a bit more than last season, ARSENAL TO WIN THE PREMIER LEAGUE appeals at 5/1.
I do think Manchester City could be vulnerable favourites this season, and Arsenal are well positioned to capitalise.
Reds can roar back to form
I also really like the look of LIVERPOOL.
Jurgen Klopp’s men finished outside of the top four last season but only because of a shocking defensive effort, not helped by their sluggish midfield – most of which have now been moved on.
Liverpool averaged a huge 2.12 xGF per game last term, bettered only by the eventual champions (2.22), so the title-winning attack was there, meaning if they could just sort things out at the other end, they could make a real run.
Let’s not forget this is a team who have blown hot and cold over the last few seasons, and this could be a hot one.
After winning the title in 19/20, posting an xGD per game figure of +0.94, they scraped into the top four the following campaign (+0.66), struggling due to a host of in-season injuries.
Interestingly, they ended that season with a flourish to secure Champions League football, winning eight of an unbeaten 10 to close the campaign and carry serious momentum into the following season.
In 21/22 they amassed a whopping 92 points on their way to finishing second and they were two games away from a quadruple. That campaign they averaged +1.59 xGD per game taking a huge leap forward.
Last term they fell flat to finish fifth posting +0.65 xGD per game, with burnout a key issue following such a heavy season the year before, as well as new players adapting. But, as in 20/21, the Reds finished the campaign in impressive fashion.
They won seven of an unbeaten 10 to close out, with only Manchester City picking up more points than Klopp’s charges, though a huge point of note is that no team collected more expected points (xP) or had a better underlying process (2.51 xGF, 1.01 xGA per game) than Liverpool in that stretch.
The positive run coincided with a switch in formation when in possession, as Trent Alexander-Arnold – their most creative player – was moved more centrally to get more touches on the ball. It worked.
All the pieces look to be in place for a strong season from Liverpool, and while they will lose Mohamed Salah to AFCON, possibly for a month, they have depth in the front line to be able to cope. At 8/1, I'm happy to back LIVERPOOL TO WIN THE PREMIER LEAGUE.
Manchester United need to bring in a few more players for me to think they are in the conversation and, as things stand, I'd put Newcastle ahead of both them and Chelsea in the betting to win the title, something they currently aren't with most firms.
Magpies to repeat top four success
And that thought brings me nicely onto a TOP FOUR bet, with NEWCASTLE looking underestimated at 13/8 to make it into the Champions League for a second successive season.
The Magpies were incredible from an underlying numbers perspective last season, posting the third most xP while boasting the second best underlying process (+0.92 xGD per game), so a continuance of that level will make them a shoo-in this term.
The only difference between this season and last is the midweek European matches they will have on their schedule, but their squad is deep, and Eddie Howe has welcomed a few new faces to bolster their starting XI in Sandro Tonali and Harvey Barnes.
Premier League top four finish 23/24 (via Sky Bet)
- 1/16 - Manchester City
- 1/3 - Arsenal
- 2/5 - Liverpool
- 4/6 - Manchester United
- 13/8 - Newcastle
- 13/8 - Chelsea
- 4/1 - Tottenham
- 15/2 - Brighton
- 8/1 bar
Odds correct at 1600 (06/08/23)
Newcastle are a team to be feared, and they are much more consistent than the likes of Manchester United - who will be their closest challengers to finish in the top four in my mind - and while Chelsea have a lot of potential upside this season with Mauricio Pochettino and a talented squad, 'potential' is all it is at this stage, while the Magpies have proven their capabilities.
Defensively they are brilliant, allowing just 1.10 xGA per game, with only City (0.90) posting a better process at that end of the pitch last season, meaning Howe's side have a fantastic foundation to build upon, which is majorly important over a 38-game season and stands them in good stead for a repeat.
Brighton best of the rest
Given Newcastle's gatecrash into the top four last season, the WITHOUT market has moved from a big six to a BIG SEVEN, and it's BRIGHTON that look in a great position to continue their development under Roberto De Zerbi.
The Seagulls are arguably the most well-run club in the country, so the loss of Alexis Mac Allister to Liverpool and the likely departure of Moises Caicedo don't worry me, as the brain trust on the south coast will likely already have either got their replacements in their ranks - players we are yet to hear of - or they are already pursuing them.
Not only were they brilliant to watch last term, passing the eye test, but their underlying data was sensational, especially after De Zerbi took charge.
A sixth-place finish was a remarkable achievement last term, meaning they do have European commitments to deal with, but so do the second (Aston Villa) and third (West Ham) favourites in this market.
And, to make the bet even more appealing, we don't even need them to finish in the top six or seven, all they need to do is finish above everyone bar the 'big seven' of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool the two Manchester clubs, Newcastle and Tottenham.
Eighth place would do so long as those seven all finished ahead of them.
I effectively make this a head-to-head with Aston Villa, and while Unai Emery's side have recruited impressively, they have a lot of ground to make up on Brighton on the underlying data front.
After the Spaniard was appointed, Villa averaged an xGD per game of +0.01. Over the same timeframe Brighton posted +0.76 which was bested only by City, Newcastle and Liverpool.
Effectively, we don't even need Brighton to hit the same levels as they did last season, a slight drop would be fine and would still likely be enough for them to see off the rest of the competition in this market.
Who will be relegated from the Premier League?
That's all the fun stuff sorted then, onto the troubled end - relegation.
In my mind, Luton will fight admirably but will fall short, while the off-field issues at Sheffield United meaning a lack of spending could hurt them badly. I'd be surprised if either stayed up this season.
So where does the value lie? Interestingly, nowhere.
The issue with betting on relegation markets is that you could have an edge and look brilliant, only for a new manager or a splurge of signings - or both - to scupper your bet.
Take last season. Backers of both Everton and Wolves to be relegated will have been grinning from ear-to-ear heading into the World Cup break given the former had looked awful under Frank Lampard's tutelage and the latter propped up the table having won just twice in 15 games.
Fast forward a few months and new managers steered them to safety, emphatically in Wolves' case. These things happen all the time at the bottom end of the table as teams simply cannot afford to go down, so make drastic changes that can come off.
Premier League Relegation 23/24 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 4/11 - Luton
- 4/6 - Sheffield United
- 9/4 - Nottingham Forest
- 5/2 - Bournemouth
- 11/4 - Everton, Wolves
- 10/3 - Burnley, Fulham
- 6/1 bar
Odds correct at 1600 (06/08/23)
All of this means I'm happy to have NO BET in the relegation market ahead of the start of the campaign, and may well in-season as things develop.
You could make a case for any of the other six teams that feature at the head of the betting to either stay up or go down, and none of them are at an enticing enough price to get involved with at this stage.
RAB's and #oddsonthat
Something a little different this season, as as well as highlighting my staked fancies, I've scoured the various RAB and #Oddsonthat markets to bring to attention a couple of big priced runners that may be of interest, though won't be included in the staking plan.
The 22/1 available with Sky Bet for Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle to finish in the top four and Luton and Sheffield United to be relegated should give you a run for your money.
At a shorter price, Arsenal and Liverpool to finish top four, Aston Villa and Brighton to finish top half, Bournemouth and Wolves to finish bottom half and Luton and Sheffield United to be relegated should go close at 17/2.
For more fun, some of the corner lines on Sky Bet are worth taking a look at too.
4+ corners in every Premier League match is priced at 18/1 and only failed to land in five of 380 games last season, while only 10 failed to see 5+ corners and only 19 didn't have 6+ corners. It's 175/1 for 5+ and a whopping 750/1 for 6+.
Premier League 23/24 Outright best bets
- 3pts e.w. Arsenal to win the title at 5/1 (General - 1/2 odds 1,2)
- 2pts e.w. Liverpool to win the title at 8/1 (General - 1/2 odds 1,2)
- 5pts Newcastle to finish in the top four at 15/8 (Betway)
- 5pts Brighton to win the league without the 'big seven' at 13/8 (BetVictor)
Odds correct at 1600 (06/08/22)
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