Premier League odds 22/23: Outright winner, top 4 and relegation
Yes, I know the 21/22 Premier League season has just finished, but the early prices for the 22/23 campaign have been released and some make for interesting reading.
Let's take a look at those markets.
Will Manchester City defend their title?
We were treated to a thrilling title race this past season between Manchester City and Liverpool, with Pep Guardiola's side prevailing, meaning City have won four of the last five league titles.
Sky Bet make them 4/7 to make that five of six, and it's not difficult to see why.
Premier League winner 22/23 (via Sky Bet)
- 4/7 - Manchester City
- 2/1 - Liverpool
- 16/1 - Chelsea
- 25/1 - Manchester United
- 28/1 - Tottenham
- 40/1 - Arsenal
- 50/1 - Newcastle
Odds correct at 1245 (24/05/22)
Not only were they the best team in the league based on expected goals (xG) process last season, posting an xGD per game of +1.75, but they have already strengthened with the signing of Erling Haaland from Dortmund.
The lack of a striker was seen by many as City's major weakness, so the fact that they have acquired the best young number nine in Europe is a major statement.
However, while an improvement in firepower is eye-catching, it is worth noting that the best defensive team according to xG has won the Premier League in four of the last five seasons, and the best defensive team in all of those seasons has been Manchester City.
Liverpool are second favourites at 2/1 after finishing just a point behind City having amassed 92 points, and they will be City's closest challengers again next term having pulled streets clear of the rest in terms of points and xG process.
After the Reds we have a jump to 16/1 for Chelsea winning the title, 25/1 for Manchester United and 28/1 for Tottenham, all of which have to make huge ground on City. It looks unlikely they will challenge and all are best avoided even at the bigger prices.
Newcastle (50/1) are a couple of years away from potentially challenging, while Arsenal (40/1) will be fighting to get in the top four again - some way off the standard required to win the title.
Will United finish in the top four?
Last season saw Manchester United finish outside of the top four and post some horrific underlying numbers, particularly in defence, but the appointment of Erik ten Hag has given new hope that they could get back into the Champions League, according to the bookies anyway.
Sky Bet have United at 11/10 along with Tottenham to finish in the top four, but major improvements are required from a team who ranked only 10th last term based on xG.
Premier League Top 4 finish 22/23 (via Sky Bet)
- 1/50 - Manchester City
- 1/10 - Liverpool
- 4/5 - Chelsea
- 11/10 - Manchester United, Tottenham
- 7/4 - Arsenal
- 6/1 - Newcastle
- 12/1 - Leicester, West Ham
Odds correct at 1245 (24/05/22)
Tottenham look the bet at the same price, with the fact that their process ranked third best since Antonio Conte took charge and their squad is likely to only get better standing them in good stead for another top-four finish.
Chelsea (4/5) have personnel question marks in defence and off-field issues so could be vulnerable in this market, while Arsenal are potentially a tad big at 7/4 given their continued improvement under Mikel Arteta.
Newcastle (6/1) showed plenty of improvement after the January transfer window but will have to improve a lot more if they are to challenge for top four, though the top six could be a realistic aim, and the same can be said for Leicester and West Ham (12/1), with the latter having to again balance Thursday night European football with league commitments.
Who will finish in the top half?
Unsurprisingly, Manchester City (1/750), Liverpool (1/500), Chelsea (1/16), Tottenham (1/12), Manchester United (1/10) and Arsenal (1/9) are all heavy odds-on to finish in the top half next season, meaning the bookies think are four places up for grabs.
Sky Bet go eye-wateringly short for Newcastle to be one of those four teams, pricing them at 1/5, with West Ham (4/6) and Leicester (4/5) the other odds-on teams.
Of those, the Foxes are the team that appeal at the prices, as although they were shocking on the underlying numbers last season, their performances when restored to a full complement at the end of the season were much more like it.
Premier League Top Half finish 22/23 (via Sky Bet)
- 1/5 - Newcastle
- 4/6 - West Ham
- 4/5 - Leicester
- 7/4 - Aston Villa, Brighton
- 5/2 - Everton, Wolves
- 11/4 - Crystal Palace, Leeds
- 3/1 - Southampton
- 9/2 - Brentford
Odds correct at 1245 (24/05/22)
Sky Bet are suggesting that the final place in the top half is likely to be fought out between Aston Villa and Brighton (both 7/4), with the consistency of the Seagulls giving them the nod in my book.
They have been performing like a top half team on underlying metrics for a few years now, and secured a ninth-place finish last term.
Everton and Wolves (5/2) are best swerved, but the 11/4 about Crystal Palace piques the interest given the strides they made under Patrick Vieira last season. With another successful summer window like last year, they could be a real threat for a European place, never mind a top-half finish.
Leeds (11/4) need major reinvestment, Southampton seem to run out of steam after 25 games every season under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but Brentford look a big price at 9/2 in this market.
They are smartly run football club, and ranked as the eighth best team in the league last season based on xG, so it wouldn't take much for them to finish a few places higher next time around.
Who will be relegated from the Premier League?
At the time of writing, we don't know who will make up the 20 teams in next season's Premier League, with either Nottingham Forest or Huddersfield set to be promoted from the Championship.
Bournemouth are currently the only team odds-on for the drop with Sky Bet, but that price does appear a little short given the history the Cherries have of spending plenty of money. They could easily improve an already good squad.
The same goes for Fulham (6/4), who romped to the Championship title and have spending power to maximise on the positivity around the club.
Premier League Relegation finish 22/23 (via Sky Bet)
- 8/11 - Bournemouth
- 6/4 - Fulham
- 5/2 - Brentford
- 3/1 - Leeds
- 7/2 - Southampton
- 5/1 - Crystal Palace, Everton, Wolves
- 13/2 - Aston Villa
Odds correct at 1245 (24/05/22)
Brentford being the current third favourites (5/2) for the drop is plain wrong. They performed like a top-half team last season, and the shrewdly run club will only strengthen again with some under the radar signings.
Leeds (3/1) need investment if they are to have a more comfortable season in 22/23, though the process under Jesse Marsch was at a mid-table level towards the end of the season.
Southampton (7/2) look an early value play given the way in which they ended the campaign.
Hasenhuttl's side performed like a relegation team over the last 15 games, and given the lack of resources and spending at the club, they may find themselves finishing closer to the drop zone next season.
Palace (5/1) and Everton (5/1) don't appeal, but Wolves look a tad big after finishing the campaign in a horrendous fashion based on the underlying numbers, and the fact that they could be losing key players like Ruben Neves in the summer.
They could find themselves under pressure next term after taking a backwards step in Bruno Lage's first campaign.
- Be sure to stick with Sporting Life Infogol for the best coverage and betting tips for the 22/23 season, as after all, our tipsters finished the campaign +91.5pts in profit across the 21/22 Premier League campaign.