Premier League analysis: Arsenal in sudden turnaround and latest betting odds for top four and Premier League relegation
Paul Higham analyses the weekend's Premier League action and picks out what to watch for heading into another busy midweek.
The Premier League football just keeps on coming, and I for one don't even notice the lack of crowds that much anymore, there's just too much happening on the pitch.
After Man City's 4-0 win over the hungover champions had us all scratching our heads as to why they're 23 points behind, the weekend highlighted that very reason as Liverpool ground out a win - as they have all season - while Pep Guardiola's side came unstuck in a shock loss at Southampton.
Consistency and character has been Jurgn Klopp's motto all season long while Man City have now lost nine times - the most since Manuel Pellegrini's final season in charge (10).
The form table looks like we've gone back in time to the Ferguson v Wenger days with Man Utd and Arsenal flying high in the standings, and while Jamie Vardy joined the 100 club Leicester are by no means home and hosed with Champions League rivals breathing down their necks.
Norwich and Bournemouth look doomed, while Aston Villa and Watford are jostling to avoid joining them as West Ham clawed ever-so-slightly clear in the relegation race.
Here's our Premier League notebook with five games to go..
Gunners still have Euro visions
We've only got five games to go, and yet Arsenal are still in the Champions League conversation - yes that's a shock to all of us, and they're big outsiders, but they're still there. That can only be good for Mikel Arteta's side.
Arsenal are 20/1 to finish in the top five, which as it stands will bag them the final Champions League spot with Man City banned. And you know what, they're technically still in the hunt for fourth (although at 80/1) as they're now in seventh place in the table, eight points behind Chelsea in fourth and just six points off Manchester United.
It's fanciful thinking, as they'll most likely need to win every game against Leicester (Tuesday) Tottenham, Liverpool, Villa and Watford. Unlikely, yes, but the fact they're in this position after an impressive 2-0 away win at Wolves is huge for this team's development.
The stats from our friends at Opta back up the theory that the Arteta revolution could finally be getting into gear - they've won three straight league games without conceding for the first time since November 2017, and have won successive away games to nil for the first time since October 2015.
Even more impressive was the fact the win came at Wolves - who lost for the first time in nine and had looked very strong top four shouts (they're now 10/1) - and the manner of it, Arsenal's defensive solidity impressing as Adama Traore's shot on target inside the first minute was the only one Wolves ended up having.
All that with David Luiz in the team! The 3-4-3 system Arteta uses looks by far their best option going forward.
Teenager Bakayo Saka looks superb but that was just one of a number of individual performances of note - Alexandre Lacazette scored his first away league goal in over a year, sub Joe Willock created two chances and one assist and stand-in keeper Emiliano Martinez kept his sixth clean sheet in eight league starts.
Perhaps the best thing for me though, was the fact that this usually soft-centred Gunners outfit actually stood up to be counted against a strong side who are, in all honesty, better than them. A backbone has been missing at the Emirates for years.
Their win at Molineux was in fact Arsenal’s first league victory away at a team above them in the table since September 2015 - which just so happened to be a 5-2 success at Leicester.
Arsenal are 5/4 favourites to win on Tuesday - and the Foxes need to watch out.
Top four race - Spurs are done
So what about this top four race in earnest then? Arsenal will have their say, although fifth is as high as they could possibly wish to finish, and even that's unlikely. There's a north London derby on the horizon so let's start with Tottenham, who you can probably put a line through now as contenders.
That defeat at Sheffield United sums up this talented but frustrating bunch under Jose Mourinho - who have now taken just 15 points from 16 Premier League away games. They at least beat Everton at home to move back up to eighth but they're still a shorter price to finish in the bottom half than in the top five (50/1).
They're just four points off Wolves in sixth but are so unpredictable that it's hard to see them putting a run together - they're also so bad away that it's hard to back them for any away game with any degree of certainty - although even Spurs will fancy a crack at Bournemouth, who they play on Thursday.
It was a welcome win for Sheffield United, but they're "in the race" in name only and with a tough run-in featuring games against Wolves (H), Chelsea (H), Leicester (A), Everton (H) and Southampton (A), I can't see them coming anywhere above eighth.
I couldn't be tempted by the 22/1 on a top six finish, and if anything I'd sway towards the 5/2 on a bottom half finish with that fixture list. They have to earn three points fewer than Burnley and five fewer than Everton to drop to 11th by the end of the campaign.
Wolves losing to Arsenal shocked me, and them too probably, and it put a dagger in their top four (10/1) and top five (100/30) chances as Man Utd are three clear and have a decent fixture list while Chelsea are five above them. Wolves do play Chelsea in the last game of the season.
Nuno's problem is clearly goals - they've had just five shots on target in their last three games and although they won two of those, Raul Jimenez was feeding on scraps. They keep it tight at the back and hope to pinch something, grind out a win; they're a bit like a diet Liverpool in that respect - similar recipe but not quite the quality.
Just 13 of their 33 games have featured over 2.5 goals and the last six have had no more than two goals in - basically, score once against Wolves and you have a great chance of getting something.
Finish-wise they're a tricky one to place - they have that joker up their sleeve of facing Chelsea last game but they have to be in touch. Fifth is probably the best they can do but they have to start scoring.
Get on the unders for Wednesday's game with goal-shy Sheffield United.
Man Utd are still only fifth somehow, but all the money is on them powering their way to fourth (2/5) with a helpful fixture list and final game shootout with Leicester, while Chelsea remain in the driving seat in fourth, 4/11 to stay in the top four and fancied to finish above Leicester, who they trail by just a point.
Have floundering Foxes turned a corner?
When it comes to the top half of the table e've saved the most interesting to last and that's Leicester, sitting pretty for so long but now in real trouble of tumbling out of the top four. They're 4/5 to retain their position in the top four but Man Utd and Chelsea are fancied ahead of them.
The problem here is that Saturday's welcome win over Palace was their first of the restart - in what is the easier half of their fixtures, and now they get a red-hot Arsenal side full of confidence as they begin a tough run-in.
To sum up Brendan Rodgers' side, they put the 'lesser' teams to the sword but struggle against the big boys - they have the wrong attitude, show too much respect and go into their shell. Not uncommon for a young team but something that needs addressing.
They're the third-top scorers in the division and have the second best defence so nothing much is wrong there is it? Well, their stats are padded slightly by the way they have taken teams apart when in front - they've put eight past Newcastle and Villa in two games against them both, and nine famously in one match against Southampton.
Those 25 goals only got them 15 points - plus almost everything they were hitting was going in - they had the second-best shot conversion rate before the break but since the restart they've slipped from 14% to just 4.9% having notched just twice in 41 shots.
It's no coincidence that Jamie Vardy was going through a dry spell at the same time - but now he's back in the goals and in the 100 club then they'll be looking to kick on. They need a fit and firing James Maddison though, as Rodgers has struggled to find the right formation without him.
Tinkering at this stage of the season isn't a good sign and he's gone from his 4-2-3-1 with Maddison as a No.10 to playing a 4-1-4-1 for a couple of games and even a 3-4-1-2 against Palace, struggling to find the best place for Ayoze Perez.
Rodgers will need to rectify that as they really need to get something from the Emirates on Tuesday.
Relegation - Hammers have enough
Norwich are pretty much down - they're eight points off safety effectively given their goal difference and are showing no signs of life. Aston Villa have life and energy but no end product and I've been backing Bournemouth to go down for months.
The Cherries at least threw a few punches before being floored by Man Utd and that was a welcome sight, but Eddie Howe looks like a beaten man already and for all his good points, likeability and easy-on-the-eye football - he's suffering from the same old problem in his defence.
You can usually tell the relegation candidates from the goals against column and Bournemouth are serial offenders in this category - they've conceded 21 in their last eight games (losing five in a row) to take their tally to 59.
They're about to become the first Premier League side to concede 60 or more goals in five straight seasons. Just let that marinate for a while. It's a miracle Howe has kept them up for so long with that defensive record but it looks like they could have been found out.
A major reason why they're 1/8 to go down is the remaining fixtures they have to play: Tottenham (H)
Leicester (H), Manchester City (A), Southampton (H), Everton (A). Say no more.
It's a coin toss between Aston Villa and Watford for that third relegation spot for me and the form and fixtures hold the key here. A quick look at games since the restart shows that West Ham have four points while Watford, Villa, Bournemouth and Norwich put together have just three.
Since the restart
West Ham record: P4 W1 D1 L2 F5 A8 Pts 4
Bottom four combined record: P17 W0 D3 L14 F7 A35 Pts 3
For all their faults, and there are numerous, the Hammers can win games, and they hold the key to everything at the bottom with their fixture list including games against Norwich, Watford and Aston Villa - with this being the final game of the season.
Throw in a four-point gap to the drop zone and David Moyes' men should be fine. Other points in their favour are the five sub rule, as their squad has much more quality in it than the rest, and the lack of crowds in the stadium. The Hammers faithful could be on their back with them being in this situation but in the nuetral atmosphere of behind closed doors games then can play relatively pressure-free. And it's telling.
It's 2/7 Villa and 7/4 Watford so that tells you where the money is going and I probably agree, but I'd have it a lot tighter. Watford have Nigel Pearson and Troy Deeney as two figures who could have a major impact and when one win may be enough they could make all the difference.
Relegation fixtures
West Ham - 31pts
- Burnley (H)
- Norwich (A)
- Watford (H)
- Manchester United (A)
- Aston Villa (H)
Watford - 28pts
- Norwich (H)
- Newcastle (A)
- West Ham (A)
- Manchester City (H)
- Arsenal (A)
Villa - 27pts
- Manchester United (H)
- Crystal Palace (H)
- Everton (A)
- Arsenal (H)
- West Ham (A)
Stats-wise they're both pretty bad teams, the Hornets seem to have a much better reputation than Villa but they deserve to be just a point better than them at this stage having failed to score in more league games than any team not named Norwich (15).
Watford have lost their last three games, scoring just once, and taking their chances has been a problem - they've scored just 29 goals this season but have an xG of 39 and that ten-goal difference is the worst in the league.
Villa, though, have conceded two or more goals 20 times this season - that's just not good enough and their porous defence will ultimately cost them.
One final factor is the fixtures, Watford have Norwich on Tuesday, where they are priced at 8/13 for victory, while Villa face Man Utd, and you can make a case for the Hornets winning two of their remaining games - I'm struggling to get one for Villa unless Palace and/or Everton have already given up on their seasons.
We'll know a lot more by the weekend but what could be a huge swing in Watford's favour will be tought to claw back for Villa given how games come thick and fast.
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