Using expected goals (xG) data, Infogol’s Jake Osgathorpe picks out the best value bets in the overs/unders markets from across the opening weekend’s Premier League action.
Infogol is a revolutionary football product, which harnesses Opta data to power an expected goals model. Expected Goals quantifies the quality of a scoring opportunity, allocating each chance a probability of it finding the back of the net.
The xG metric can be used to assess teams and their performances, and it also helps to give an insight into future prospects, which in turn helps with betting.
Sunday
West Brom vs Leicester
West Brom were among three teams who were streets clear of the rest in the Championship based on expected goals, and their attack dragged them to promotion (1.6 xGF per game).
They will have to be smarter and pragmatic this season against better opposition, so expect a more negative approach, especially early on in the campaign as they find their feet.
Leicester finished last season in terrible form. They were excellent over the first half of the season, but performed like a mid-table team in the second half, struggling in attack away from home (10 goals in final 10 away matches.
It will be interesting to see what Brendan Rodgers can do to freshen this Leicester team up and make them more difficult to play against.
The Foxes may struggle to find the groove early on this season, so the under 2.5 looks a good bet.
Tottenham vs Everton
Spurs picked up points towards the end of last season, but they were really poor on the whole, even after Jose Mourinho took over, posting a negative expected goal difference (1.4 xGF and 1.5 xGA per game) under the manager.
That shows you Tottenham were giving up plenty of good chances per game, while also creating plenty, and the reason they collected more points than could have been expected was due to the clinical finishing of the team – something that isn’t sustainable.
Everton were a strange team last season. They weren’t as bad under Marco Silva as the poor results would suggest, but Carlo Ancelotti really did improve their performances up until the break. Post-break they were appalling.
In that spell between Ancelotti taking over and the enforced hiatus, the Toffees were averaging over 2.0 xGF per game, showing that they are more than capable of creating plenty.
Their signings are exciting, and fix a problem area. We saw this match only a few months ago and it was a dull affair, but I see this one being much more entertaining, with over 2.5 goals a strong fancy.
Monday
Brighton vs Chelsea
In my opinion, Graham Potter hasn’t got enough credit for the job he has done at Brighton. He took over a team that ranked as the third worst team in 18/19 based on expected goals, and turned them into a side who deserved to finish in mid-division, while also transforming the way they play.
Last season they were a fun watch, averaging 1.4 xGF and 1.7 xGA per game, and that entertaining approach is likely to continue.
Chelsea have brought in some really impressive players in the window, mainly in attack. Those attacking players should look forward to playing in Frank Lampard’s system that generated an average of 2.1 xGF per game, so the likes of Timo Werner and Kai Havertz should get plenty of scoring opportunities.
However, issues remain defensively, particularly in goal. Kepa and Willy Caballero were both extremely poor based on our metrics last season, so the rumours of the Blues closing in on a keeper are promising.
Nonetheless, Chelsea will still allow chances, especially against an exciting Brighton team, so the over 2.5 looks a solid play.
Saturday's picks
Fulham v Arsenal
Fulham were far from impressive in the Championship last season, finishing the campaign seventh in Infogol’s xG table, but they did sure up defensively post-January.
The results Arsenal have achieved under Mikel Arteta have been flattering based on the performances they have produced.
Since Arteta’s arrival in the league, the Gunners racked up only the 13th most expected points (xPoints) and posted underwhelming figures on expected goal metrics (1.3 expected goals for, 1.7 expected goals against per game).
They had joy in cup competitions, where you can get a lot of luck in single matches, and their successes against Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool all came when they were able to sit back and counter attack.
Arsenal won’t be able to do that this weekend, with Fulham expected to line-up with a low-block, and I feel the Gunners may struggle to create chances. The unders makes appeal.
Liverpool vs Leeds
Liverpool were emphatic winners of the Premier League last season and were able to take their foot off the gas post-break, cruising to the finish of the campaign.
They were excellent in both attack and defence, especially at home, and that should continue this season, though this will be a good test given the intensity Leeds play at.
Leeds were an exciting team to watch last season, and deservedly won the league to earn promotion, ranking comfortably as the best team in the Championship according to expected goals.
Their underlying numbers last season were actually better than those Wolves posted in 17/18, and Nuno’s side have gone on make a big impact in the Premier League, which bodes well for Leeds.
Leeds were excellent defensively last term, conceding only 35 goals in 46 games, allowing an average of 0.83 xGA per game. While this is a huge step up, they can frustrate Liverpool and keep the score line down at Anfield.
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