Premier League football predictor and correct score tips: Wins for Liverpool and City, Chelsea to be held
The Premier League is onto gameweek six this weekend, and Jake Osgathorpe uses Infogol's expected goals (xG) model to help predict the correct scores.
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Scroll to bottom for this week's Premier League TV schedule in full
Correct Score: Brighton 1-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00
Brighton were beaten for the first time in the league this season in midweek, losing to Fulham, though Graham Potter's side were unfortunate to come away empty handed (xG: FUL 1.05 - 2.03 BHA).
That was the fourth game in five this season in which the Seagulls had won the xG battle, with their xGD per game of +0.79 highlighting how dominant they have been on average through the opening stretches.
They got a win at the Amex in their last home game, and both performances against Newcastle and Leeds were excellent, and the Foxes should be especially wary.
Brendan Rodgers's side are bottom of the Premier League after four straight defeats, with their performances alarming.
Granted, they have played Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United in their opening five games, but their underlying process is relegation worthy.
They have averaged 0.83 xGF and 1.66 xGA per game, with that attacking figure in particular concerning, especially as they visit a strong defensive side this weekend.
Correct Score: Manchester United 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30
Manchester United have recovered very well from a poor start to the season, winning a three in a row to move onto nine points.
Their performance at Leicester was uninspiring in attack, but very controlled in defence, limiting the Foxes to just 0.66 xG. That bodes well for this game.
Erik ten Hag's side will return to Old Trafford for the first time since their 2-1 win over Liverpool, and the new coach has shown he is tactically one of the better coaches in the division - better than Mikel Arteta perhaps.
Arsenal have been flawless so far, winning five straight to top the table, but this is undoubtedly their toughest game of the season so far.
The Gunners have pounded an easy schedule to get up and running, but a trip to an improving Manchester United side will be the perfect litmus test as to where they actually are as a team.
I still have my concerns about them when travelling, with Arteta's side posting the ninth best xG process away from home last season (1.22 xGF, 1.65 xGA per game), and missing key players in Thomas Partey and Aleksandr Zinchenko could well be a problem here.
Their record last season away at the 'big six' was P5 W1 L4, with their defeats heavy ones at City (5-0), Liverpool (4-0) and Spurs (3-0), while Arteta was beaten by a Michael Carrick-led United side 3-2.
I think Arsenal's winning run comes to an end here, but I don't fully trust United to the point I'm happy to back them to win. So it's a draw for me.
Correct Score: Everton 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
- BT Sport: Saturday, 12:30
Everton remain winless through five matches of the new season, but have drawn their last three despite leading in all of them.
Though they continue to look a mess defensively, allowing an average of 1.85 xGA per game, Frank Lampard's side have at least started to look more threatening in attack.
So far this season, the Toffees have generated an average of 1.44 xGF per game which is up a considerable amount on last season's performances under Lampard (1.08).
Liverpool left it late in midweek to beat Newcastle, but in the end the win was deserved based on expected goals (xG: LIV 1.57 - 0.62 NEW).
That was, however, their worst attacking display of the season so far according to xG, though given they get a few players back for this Merseyside derby, I don't think they will have many issues at all on Saturday.
Darwin Nunez is one of those returning, and in his 106 minutes in the Premier League this season he has racked up 2.30 xGF. The guy is an expert at getting on the end of good scoring chances, and should he start (and keep his head), the Uruguayan could have a say in proceedings.
Correct Score: Brentford 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
- Saturday, 15:00
Brentford were very impressive at Crystal Palace in midweek, being unfortunate to only come away with a point (xG: CRY 0.72 - 2.14 BRE).
The Bees have started the season well despite winning just one of five, with Thomas Frank's side winning the xG battle in four of those contests, averaging 1.82 xGF and 1.40 xGA per game.
They are an excellent home team in general, ranking seventh best in the league last season in terms of home xG process, and they will be a tough opponent for visiting Leeds.
Jesse Marsch's side have fond memories of playing at the Gtech Community Stadium, with their win on the final day of last season on this ground seeing them stay in the Premier League.
In general this term, they have got results their performances have deserved, being winless away from home therefore no coincidence.
It will be another tough game for the Whites, though their defensive process this term (1.26 xGA per game) stands them in good stead to get something from their trip down south.
Correct Score: Chelsea 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
- Saturday, 15:00
Chelsea don't look right. They have collected seven points from their opening five league games, looking abject in their last three contests.
Granted, they played with 10-men against Leicester for 60+ minutes in their last home game, but prior to the red card they had mustered just one total shot, struggling to carve out opportunities.
Overall, their attacking process is a major concern even at this early stage of the season, with Thomas Tuchel's side averaging just 1.40 non-penalty xGF per game through five matchdays - which is down 16% on last season's attacking output (1.66). They haven't had the toughest of schedule's either.
After looking all over the shop through their opening three league games, allowing 2.07 xGA per game, West Ham have tightened things up a bit, shipping just 0.41 xGA against Aston Villa and 1.30 at home to Tottenham in midweek.
That performance was much improved, and David Moyes's side won the xG battle against one of the league's better sides which should give them plenty of confidence.
It is likely that the Hammers will continue to be more cautious in their approach, which should lead to them keeping a fairly blunt Chelsea attack at arms length, though the visitors themselves have also struggled going forward (1.06 non-pen xGF per game).
Correct Score: Newcastle 2-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
- Saturday, 15:00
Newcastle suffered a heart-breaking defeat at Anfield in midweek, conceding in the 97th minute of the game to lose 2-1, though the result was deserved (xG: LIV 1.57 - 0.62 NEW).
They could be mentally and physically drained after such a slog, chasing Liverpool for much of the match and concentrating intently, but being back at St. James' Park should give them a much needed lift.
Eddie Howe's side have been sensational at home since his appointment, losing just two of 16 while winning nine, averaging 1.57 xGF and 1.39 xGA per game. St James' is a tough place to visit.
Crystal Palace were fortunate to earn a point at home to Brentford in midweek (xG: CRY 0.72 - 2.14 BRE), following up a poor display at Manchester City with a surprisingly poor one at Selhurst Park.
Patrick Vieira's side have generally been excellent at home, but very beatable on the road, losing nine of their 21 away matches under Vieira, winning just four.
That isn't a surprise when their process when travelling reads 1.08 xGF and 1.50 xGA per game, and this is set to be a very tough game for the Eagles against a strong home side.
Correct Score: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
- Saturday, 15:00
Both Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have been slapped by the two best teams in the league over the past few gameweeks.
Forest were hit for six at the Etihad in midweek, while the Cherries were thumped 9-0 at Anfield, but a goalless draw in midweek for Bournemouth has them on the same number of points as Saturday's opponents.
Incidentally, and perhaps unsurprisingly, these two sides rank as the worst teams in the league based on xGA, Forest taking the honours at this stage having allowed 2.40 xGA per game to Bournemouth's 2.00.
But, the pair have both faced really tough schedules, and this is the first real game both will be looking at with a 'must-win' mindset.
I would think that favours the hosts as they have the better quality and better coach, with the Cherries still yet to appoint Scott Parker's replacement, though it won't be a cosy victory.
Correct Score: Tottenham 3-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
- Saturday, 15:00
Tottenham were held by West Ham in midweek in what was a really disappointing performance that saw them generate just 1.30 xGF.
Back at home, they should get back to winning ways. Spurs have been sensational at home under Antonio Conte, winning 12 of 16, averaging 2.21 xGF and 0.91 xGA per game.
That is an extremely impressive underlying process, and should they get near that same level here, Spurs can expect another win.
What a start to the season it has been for Fulham. Marco Silva's side have collected eight points from five games following a home win over Brighton - though the Cottagers were fortunate to win that one (xG: FUL 1.05 - 2.03 BHA).
Their process of 1.26 non-pen xGF and 1.73 non-pen xGA per game would, if sustained, likely be good enough to see them survive this season, though that defensive figure is a concern here.
As is the fact that both Liverpool and Arsenal, two of the big six, both managed to rack up over 2.0 xGF against Fulham, suggesting Spurs may well have little issue creating on Saturday.
Correct Score: Wolves 1-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
- Saturday, 15:00
Wolves drew another blank in midweek when failing to beat lowly Bournemouth, though they were the better side who created the better chances (xG: BOU 0.38 - 1.88 WOL).
That was the first game this season in which they won the xG battle, albeit against the worst team they have faced thus far.
At Molineux, the Old Gold have looked strangely vulnerable in their two games this term, struggling in attack (racking up 1.14 and 1.13 xGF) which shipping decent chances (1.70 and 2.10 xGA), so despite this being a very winnable game, they have shown little to suggest they will get their first victory here.
I'm really enjoying Southampton at the minute, with their youthful exuberance making them a likeable team, while the young players who have been introduced look excellent.
They competed brilliantly in back to back home games against Manchester United and Chelsea, generating a combined 3.02 xGF while allowing 2.95 xGA against two of the 'big six' - that is impressive.
Ralph Hasenhuttl's side have in general been poor travellers, though a deserved win at Leicester (xG: LEI 0.32 - 1.54 SOU) in their last road game bodes well ahead of a trip to one of the leagues worst attacking sides.
Correct Score: Aston Villa 0-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
- Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30
Aston Villa are in big trouble. Steven Gerrard's side have been shocking to start the new season, picking up just three points from five games.
Performances have been really poor, particularly defensively. Villa have shipped an average of 1.78 xGA per game across a fairly kind opening schedule.
Combine that with the fact that they are having major issues in attack - averaging 0.96 xGF per game and breaching 1.0+ xG only once (EVE home) - and it's hard to see them causing any issues for the champions.
Manchester City have started the season in juggernaut mode, winning four of five and scoring 19 in the process. They have averaged 2.75 xGF per game.
Pep's side have a striker in Erling Haaland who is perfect for their chance creation machine, with the Norwegian constantly getting into excellent scoring positions.
He has nine goals from 6.66 xG, averaging 1.52 xG/95 which is a frightening record. Given the state of Villa's defence, he will likely notch at least one this weekend in another City hammering.
This week's Premier League kick-off times (BST) and TV schedule
Saturday 3rd September
- Everton v Liverpool - 12:30 on BT Sport
- Brentford v Leeds - 15:00
- Chelsea v West Ham - 15:00
- Newcastle v Crystal Palace - 15:00
- Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth - 15:00
- Tottenham v Fulham - 15:00
- Wolves v Southampton - 15:00
- Aston Villa v Manchester City - 17:30 on Sky Sports
Sunday 4th September
- Brighton v Leicester - 14:00 on Sky Sports
- Manchester United v Arsenal - 16:30 on Sky Sports
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