Premier League football predictor and correct score tips: No stopping City and Arsenal, Liverpool and United to win again

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Correct Score: Leicester 1-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

• BT Sport: Thursday, 20:00

Leicester were better in attack last weekend at Chelsea, but were aided by the fact they were playing against 10-men and were chasing the game.

The Foxes still look more like a relegation contender than a European football contender, struggling greatly at both ends of the pitch.

Since the start of the 21/22 season (total of 42 games), Brendan Rodgers' side have won the xG battle in just 31% of their matches, averaging 1.29 xGF and 1.88 xGA per game, so are definitely a team on the decline.

Their opening two home games of the new season are a major cause for concern, with the Foxes generating totals of just 0.58 and 0.32 xGF against two teams fancied by many to be in the relegation mix this season.

Manchester United have won back-to-back games for the first time since January after beating Southampton 1-0, and while it wasn't a convincing performance, it was yet another step in the right direction, and a first clean sheet of the campaign.

At least now United have an identity, and we know what to expect from them, and while the signs are that they are beginning to click in attack, defensively their remain question marks.

Erik ten Hag's side have allowed 1.70 xGA per game through their opening four matches, so still have some tightening up to do, and even a struggling Leicester attack should be able to score against the Red Devils.

An away win is still fancied though given the extreme defensive issues at Leicester, and if they are not careful they could be a surprise relegation candidate.

Correct Score: Crystal Palace 3-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

• BT Sport: Tuesday, 19:30

Crystal Palace were deservedly beaten by Manchester City at the weekend, conceding a bucket-load of chances after racing to a two-goal lead.

The Eagles return home in midweek though where they have been sensational under Patrick Vieira, averaging 1.67 xGF and 0.99 xGA per home game across his 21 home league home matches.

Hit those levels, and a home win looks incredibly likely given Brentford's away struggles since returning to the top flight, averaging 1.26 xGF and 1.79 xGA per away game in those road matches.

The Bees have conceded five in two road trips already this term, against Leicester and Fulham, and Palace are rated much higher than those sides in my book, so a home win looks good here.

Correct Score: Fulham 0-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

• BT Sport: Tuesday, 19:30

Fulham's 2-1 defeat at the Emirates was one of the 'fairer' results of the season based on xG (ARS 2.21-1.04 FUL), and was their first defeat of a so far steady campaign.

The Cottagers have impressed, with their sole win coming at home, but Brighton are purring right now, and the Seagulls are one of the league's better travellers.

Graham Potter's side made it three wins from an unbeaten four games to start the new season when deservedly beating Leeds, a victory that also brought about a third straight clean sheet.

Brighton have ranked as the fifth best away team in the league over the past 21 road games, losing just four of those contests while winning nine. They have started the season performing like a top four team (1.82 xGF, 1.07 xGA per game) and should have too much for their hosts.

Correct Score: Southampton 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

• BT Sport: Tuesday, 19:45

Southampton weren't bad in their defeat to Manchester United last weekend, winning the xG battle (SOU 1.61-1.35 MUN), showing yet more signs of improvement.

It was always going to be a long season for the Saints with mainly young, unproven players brought into the club, but so far those young players have slotted in nicely.

They face another stiff test on Tuesday when welcoming a Chelsea team who demolished them 6-0 in this fixture at the back end of last season (SOU 0.63-4.66 CHE).

Thomas Tuchel's side played with 10-men for most of their win over Leicester, and that was likely the only reason that an out-of-sorts Leicester team made it a close game.

Aside from a 3-0 thrashing away to Leeds last time out, Chelsea have been very good away from home, winning 13 of their 21 stretching back to the start of the 21/22 season.

In that time they have averaged 1.70 xGF and 1.01 xGA per away game, and should be too strong for the Saints on Tuesday.

Correct Score: Leeds 2-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

• BT Sports: Tuesday, 20:00

Leeds suffered their first defeat of the season at Brighton last weekend, a deserved loss based on the chances created in the game, though a return to Elland Road could see the Whites bounce back quickly.

Jesse Marsch's side have won both home games this term against Wolves and Chelsea, with their performance against the Blues emphatic (xG: LEE 2.13-0.72 CHE), and a similar level here would see them blow a poor travelling team away.

Everton were very fortunate to get a point at Brentford last time out, conceding a load of chances yet again on the road (xG: BRE 2.57-1.72 EVE). They have played two away games to date this season and allowed a combined 4.94 xGA.

The Toffees have played 10 away games under Frank Lampard and won just once while losing seven. In that period they have averaged 1.17 xGF and 2.28 xGA per away game, a shocking process, meaning a third home win for Leeds is on the cards.

Correct Score: Arsenal 2-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

• BT Sport: Wednesday, 19:30

Arsenal are flying. They have won their opening four league games, and there is a great chance they make it five from five here.

The Gunners are excellent at home, averaging 2.26 xGF and 1.02 xGA per game at the Emirates since the start of the 21/22 season, winning 15 of those 21 games.

Aston Villa are the visitors on Wednesday and they are bang out of form. They look lost in attack this season, racking up more than 1.0 xGF in just one of their four games (EVE home), losing both of their away matches.

In fact, across the 15 away league games overseen by Steven Gerrard, Villa have generated an average of 1.04 xGF per game. They only faced two of the 'big six' in that stretch too, so they were struggling to create chances against 'the rest' which is an even bigger concern.

A comfortable home win looks highly likely here.

Correct Score: Bournemouth 0-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

• BT Sport: Wednesday, 19:30

In a game between arguably the Premier League's weakest attacking teams, the goalless draw has to be seen as a runner - especially as Bournemouth aim to tighten up defensively after getting hit for nine by Liverpool - though they will be doing so without a manager after the club sacked Scott Parker on Tuesday.

The Cherries have had a tough schedule to open up this season, playing Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool in back-to-back games and losing by an aggregate scoreline of 16-0, but they have looked woefully toothless, failing to lay a glove on any of those teams.

In fact, even if we include their 2-0 opening day win over Aston Villa, Bournemouth have still only generated a total of 1.30 xGF - that's 0.33 per game.

Wolves remain winless after conceding a late equaliser to Newcastle, but Bruno Lage's side didn't deserve to win the game, again struggling in attack (xG: WOL 1.13 - 2.10 NEW).

The Old Gold have averaged 1.06 xGF per game through their opening four, allowing 1.61 xGA per game, so even against a torrid Bournemouth team, it is difficult to fancy Wolves.

Bournemouth are yet to create a non-penalty big chance this season, while Wolves have managed only three, so a goalless draw seems a sensible play.

Correct Score: Manchester City 4-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

• BT Sport: Wednesday, 19:30

Manchester City's win over Crystal Palace was thoroughly deserved, even if they had to work hard for it, with Pep Guardiola's side coming back from a 2-0 half-time deficit to win 4-2 (xG: MCI 2.54-0.62 CRY).

The Citizens look ominous in attack, averaging 2.56 xGF per game so far this term, meaning if they maintain the same level they will rack up around 97.3 xG this term. Erling Haaland has averaged an obscene 1.36 xG/95 through four games, meaning he is (on average) on the end of 53% of City's game-to-game xG.

So if both City as a team and Haaland continue at the same rate, the Norwegian would be on the end of around 51.6 xG this season!

The chances of both things continuing at the same rate are slim, but you never know. What we do know is that Nottingham Forest will have major issues containing him and City on Wednesday.

Steve Cooper's side have looked defensively vulnerable at the start of this season, allowing an average of 2.11 xGA per game - with the Tricky Trees in fact having allowed more xGA than Bournemouth...

It could be a long night for Forest.

Correct Score: West Ham 0-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

• BT Sport: Wednesday, 19:45

West Ham got their first goal and first win at the weekend at Aston Villa, but it came in a dogged game of few chances at either end (xG: AVL 0.41 - 0.45 WHU).

Apart from away at Forest, David Moyes' side have had major struggles creating chances this season, racking up totals of 0.58, 0.95 and 0.45 xGF, while the win at Villa was the first time they had looked resolute defensively (allowed totals of 2.23, 2.19, 1.79 xGA prior).

Tottenham are in town and they are rolling. Antonio Conte's side haven't yet hit top gear, but are still grinding out deserved wins to start the campaign.

They have looked excellent at both ends based on xG, averaging 1.83 xGF and 0.99 xGA per game through four outings, and are making a habit of winning matches away from home under their Italian coach.

In their 16 away league games since his appointment, Spurs have won eight and lost just three, averaging 1.82 xGF and 1.31 xGA per game.

More of the same here will lead to another victory.

Correct Score: Liverpool 3-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

• BT Sport: Wednesday, 20:00

Well, as bounce-backs go, it doesn't get much more emphatic than Liverpool's 9-0 trouncing of Bournemouth, a game which they dominated from start to finish, looking much more like their old selves (xG: LIV 4.08 - 0.28 BOU).

The Reds face a tougher test here, but if they play with the same energy and directness as they did when battering the Cherries, then there are few teams in the league who can live with them.

Anfield is a fortress. Over their last 74 home league games - stretching back to the start of the 18/19 season - the Reds have won 61 and lost just six. They have won the xG battle in 63 of those home games.

In that time they have averaged 2.47 xGF and 0.98 xGA per game, and have out-created their opponents in all of their last 25 league games at Anfield.

Newcastle face a daunting task then, and while they were unfortunate not beat Wolves last weekend (xG: WOL 1.13 - 2.10 NEW), they have in general been a poor travelling team under Eddie Howe from an underlying numbers perspective.

In their 15 away matches under the Englishman, the Magpies have averaged 1.07 xGF and 1.89 xGA per game, not a great process to possess heading to Anfield.

They are constantly improving though, and as displayed against Manchester City, Newcastle are capable of bloodying the nose of the big boys, but this is a big ask, and while I think they will score, this should be a home win.

This week's Premier League kick-off times (BST) and TV schedule

Wednesday 31st August (all games on BT Sport)

• Arsenal v Aston Villa - 19:30
• Bournemouth v Wolves - 19:30
• Manchester City v Nottingham Forest - 19:30
• West Ham v Tottenham - 19:45
• Liverpool v Newcastle - 20:00

Thursday 1st September

• Leicester v Manchester United - 20:00 on BT Sport

Tuesday 30th August (all games on BT Sport)

• Crystal Palace v Brentford - 19:30
• Fulham v Brighton - 19:30
• Southampton v Chelsea - 19:45
• Leeds v Everton - 20:00

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