Premier League final day: Who should have been relegated, won the title and made the top four?
The 'league table never lies'. An old, generally accepted, football adage.
As analytics has taken on more of a prominent role, there has been a softening of that once dogmatic stance - at least to some degree.
Where once 'the only thing that matters is the result', it is now more generally accepted that while that may be true in the short-term, especially where title wins and relegation are concerned, over the longer term it is unsustainable.
It's no kind of new-age, clever mumbo jumbo, just pure common sense that every football fan knows deep down. Results are great, but there has to be a sufficient level of performance to justify them should a team want them to become sustainably successful.
After 38 Premier League games it is beyond dispute that the single most important thing is where you finished in the table. But data does not simply begin at the start of a season and cease to be relevant at the end of it, giving us plenty of clues to what could happen in the subsequent campaign if performances levels continue on a similar trajectory.
According to expected goals (xG) what would the table have looked like if points had matched performances in absolute terms?
No arguments with top five
- Man City: Infogol position: 1st | Actual position: 1st
- Liverpool: Infogol position: 2nd | Actual position: 2nd
- Chelsea: Infogol position: 3rd | Actual position: 3rd
- Tottenham: Infogol position: 4th | Actual position: 4th
- Arsenal: Infogol position: 5th | Actual position: 5th
The Premier League's top five finished exactly where they ought to have according to Infogol's performance-based xG table.
Manchester City and Liverpool were a cut above the rest, ultimately separated by a single point. The only disparity here is our model believes that gap ought to have been closer to five points.
Like City and Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal all overperformed their expected points (xPoints) totals, though not significantly enough that their performance-based position and actual league finish didn't still marry up.
Data darlings on the rise
- Crystal Palace: Infogol position: 6th | Actual position: 12th
- Brighton: Infogol position: 7th | Actual position: 9th
- Brentford: Infogol position: 8th | Actual position: 13th
A simple glance at the Premier League table belies what a phenomenal first season it has been for Patrick Vieira at Crystal Palace.
The former Arsenal captain transformed a team with a -28.4 expected goal difference (xGD) in Roy Hodgson's final campaign in charge to one with the best xGD outside of the top five.
Collecting four points against Manchester City and reaching the FA Cup semi-finals was proven to be no fluke by their sixth-placed finish in Infogol's table - a staggering six places higher than their actual league position.
Next season promises to be seriously exciting at Selhurst.
There is no sign of data darlings Brighton's gradual improvement under Graham Potter relenting. This season was their most successful in Premier League history, with a club record points haul enough to secure ninth place.
But according to xG, the Seagulls can feel a little unlucky not to have finished in the top seven.
For Thomas Frank and Brentford, you can near enough copy and paste the description of Potter's tenure at Brighton.
The Bees season has been all the more eye-catching given it was their first as a Premier League team and when we consider just how cut adrift Norwich and Watford, the sides they were promoted from the Sky Bet Championship alongside, have been at the bottom.
Finishing 13th is impressive enough, but Brentford's underlying numbers suggest they are the eighth-best team in the top flight.
Ten Hag's task takes some overestimating
- Man Utd: Infogol position: 9th | Actual position: 6th
- West Ham: Infogol position: 10th | Actual position: 7th
Far too much has been said and written about Manchester United's collapse over the past 12 months already, so we'll keep this short.
Erik ten Hag has an enormous task on his hands to arrest a sharp decline in performance following a poor end to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's reign and Ralf Rangnick's underwhelming spell in charge.
United fans are unhappy enough with the club (somehow) finishing sixth, but according to the data their 21/22 performances do not even warrant finishing close to that high.
For West Ham, their superb run to the semi-finals of the Europa League undoubtedly had an impact on their league showings, something David Moyes will need to tackle next term as they take on the Conference League.
That being said, the gap between performance and results isn't enormous when compared to 20/21's sixth-placed finish, when they ranked as the Premier League's eighth-best best team according to Infogol.
Everton and Leeds 'too good to go down'?
- A Villa: Infogol position: 11th | Actual position: 14th
- Everton: Infogol position: 12th | Actual position: 16th
- Leeds: Infogol position: 13th | Actual position: 17th
Aston Villa, Everton and Leeds all changed manager during the 2021/22 campaign, seeing vast differences in their performance levels from coach to coach.
Villa’s position as the 11th-best team in the top-flight based on performance, three places higher than their actual finish, is far less headline-grabbing than the disparity for the two clubs immediately below them in Infogol’s standings.
Embroiled in a relegation dogfight until the penultimate game and very last kick respectively, Everton and Leeds’ underlying numbers suggest they ought to have been well clear of the bottom three.
Theoretically, a continuation of those long-term performance levels should see both teams enjoy more comfortable campaigns next year. In reality, some serious squad surgery is required at both clubs.
Steady Saints, middling Magpies, worried Wolves
- Southampton: Infogol position: 14th | Actual position: 15th
- Newcastle: Infogol position: 15th | Actual position: 11th
- Wolves: Infogol position: 16th | Actual position: 10th
Not much to say on Southampton. They finished almost exactly where they deserved to safely in midtable - like every year.
Newcastle’s improvement under Eddie Howe after a shockingly bad start to the season in terms of both performance and results means their 15th place in Infogol’s table is a slight outlier. Under Howe, the Magpies were producing top-half performance levels, so finishing 11th isn’t far off. The season is though, after all, judged over 38 games.
Wolves' campaign was an odd one data-wise, starting the season with unlucky defeats and draws before turning those performances into results. Ultimately though, their levels have dropped off a cliff, and should be a real concern for next season.
Lucky Leicester, bad luck Burnley?
- Burnley: Infogol position: 17th | Actual position: 18th
- Leicester: Infogol position: 18th | Actual position: 8th
- Watford: Infogol position: 19th | Actual position: 19th
- Norwich: Infogol position: 20th | Actual position: 20th
Can Burnley feel aggrieved to have been relegated? Well it depends on how monastic you are in your view that data and performance trumps all.
Leicester are by far the biggest overperformers this season when it comes to results versus underlying numbers. If this proves to be a one-off, Brendan Rodgers deserves praise for overcoming what has been a season of incredible injury strife to drag the Foxes to eighth. If not, they could be in serious trouble.
Rodgers himself has openly said they need an overhaul this summer to arrest the decline they suffered in 21/22, with defensive performance particularly poor.
Unfortunately for Watford and Norwich, they were simply nowhere near good enough to cope with the step up from the Sky Bet Championship, and rightly finished as the Premier League’s bottom two by some distance.