Premier League cheat sheet: Chelsea vs Manchester City tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
- Tom Carnduff's (@TomCarnduff) Cheat Sheet returns to the main game on Super Sunday, with Chelsea welcoming Manchester City to Stamford Bridge...
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Cole Palmer to score anytime at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Enzo Fernandez 2+ total shots at 21/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Back our suggested BuildABet @ 9/1
Cole Palmer 1+ shots on target
Julian Alvarez 1+ shots on target
Enzo Fernandez 2+ total shots
Levi Colwill 2+ tackles
Chelsea's win over Tottenham on Monday Night Football was one of the most entertaining Premier League games I've seen in a while.
Chaos - there is no better word to describe it.
And yet, despite coming out of it as 4-1 winners, there wasn't a great deal that impressed about Chelsea. Nicolas Jackson's hat-trick probably the worst I can remember.
An encounter with Manchester City should be far more tame; far more close to the script. Pep Guardiola's side are odds-on and well capable of securing all three points on offer.
Focus on Fernandez
Rather than take those shorter prices on an away win, the real appeal is in focusing on some of those likely to be involved in some way for the home side.
ENZO FERNANDEZ finds himself with a more attacking role under Mauricio Pochettino's guidance, making his 21/10 best price for 2+ TOTAL SHOTS a value play.
It's worth noting here that this is just for anything that counts as a shot - it does not have to be on target.
This selection has been a winner in 60% of Fernandez's Premier League games this season, with three of his last four all seeing at least two.
That recent run also includes the home game against Arsenal, so it's not simply a case of achieving this against the lesser teams to boost the numbers.
Cole could deliver
One player coming up against his former side is COLE PALMER, who joined Chelsea following a summer switch from Manchester City.
While Chelsea are outsiders, it was a slight surprise to see a price as big as 5/1 available on Palmer as an ANYTIME GOALSCORER.
The forward has three on his tally this season but he is crucially now Chelsea's penalty taker. Palmer has three goals in his last four league appearances.
Palmer has also seen at least two shots in each of his last six, which is particularly impressive when you also consider than one of those games saw him come on as a second-half sub.
Not only does he carry an open play threat, the fact he's tasked with spot kick duties only further enhances the appeal in this price.
If you're not fancying Chelsea to score in the game, PALMER 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET is a nice starting point for a multiple.
The shots data mentioned above underlines why this is a pick that could deliver.
Alvarez a key man for City
One player who has stepped up in Kevin De Bruyne's absence is JULIAN ALVAREZ, and he is likely to start again here.
Taking Alvarez 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET is a good pick on the City side of things given what we've seen from him this season.
All but one of his Premier League appearances have produced at least two shots, with at least three in three of his six away outings.
Alvarez's only Champions League start also saw two goals and a ridiculous eight shots against Crvena zvezda.
Look at Levi
LEVI COLWILL could continue his run of starting at left-back, particularly given this Manchester City attack.
If that's the case, taking 2+ TACKLES is a nice way to round off our multiple at a price of 9/1.
Colwill has hit this target in three of his last four games when starting at left-back, while he had two when featuring in his traditional centre-back position against Brentford.
That latter part is also important as it shows he has a chance of achieving this regardless of position.
Team news
Defenders Trevoh Chalobah, Ben Chilwell and Wesley Fofana remain out for the home side, alongside midfielders Carney Chukwuemeka and Roméo Lavia and forward Christopher Nkunku - the latter is close to a return after the international break.
Armando Broja is still a doubt despite recently returning to training.
City remain without star playmaker De Bruyne, with defenders John Stones and Manuel Akanji both also missing out.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea: Sanchez; James, Disasi, Silva, Colwill; Gallagher, Caicedo; Palmer, Fernandez, Sterling; Jackson.
Manchester City: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Gvardiol; Rodri, Kovacic; Doku, Silva, Alvarez, Foden; Haaland.
Match facts
- Chelsea have lost their last four Premier League meetings with Man City – all by a 1-0 scoreline – since a 2-1 away win in May 2021. The Blues haven’t lost five consecutive league games against an opponent since a run of seven against Blackburn between 1993 and 1996.
- Man City have won their last three Premier League away games against Chelsea, as many victories as they had in their previous 22 visits to Stamford Bridge (D5 L14).
- Man City have won their last six meetings with Chelsea in all competitions by an aggregate score of 10-0 – only against Burnley (8), Fulham (7) and Wigan (7) have they had longer winning runs without conceding.
- Chelsea have lost eight home Premier League matches in 2023, their most ever in a single year in the competition. They have only lost more than eight in five previous years in their league history, most recently in 1986 when they lost 10.
- Chelsea boss Mauricio Pochettino’s first ever Premier League win came against Man City, when they were reigning champions in February 2013 (3-1 with Southampton). The Argentine won four of his first eight against the Citizens (D1 L3), but is since winless in six against them (D2 L4).
- Jérémy Doku registered four assists in Manchester City’s 6-1 win over Bournemouth on MD11, becoming the first City player to assist four goals in a Premier League game. It took his overall total to five assists in eight Premier League appearances – only Kyle Walker-Peters (five games), Elano (seven) and Faustino Asprilla (seven) have assisted five goals in fewer appearances.
Odds correct at 1405 GMT (10/11/23)
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