Virgil van Dijk

Premier League football: Free betting tips for this weekend's games

Football

Sun October 15, 2017 · 7y ago

Ben Coley previews Sunday's Premier League games, with Virgil van Dijk tipped to strike for Southampton.

Brighton v Everton (1330 BST)

It's difficult to understate the importance of Sunday's opening game when it comes to Ronald Koeman's future at Everton, who face Arsenal a week later and will begin to look like genuine relegation candidates if still stuck on seven points come the 'respite' of an EFL Cup clash with Chelsea.

Everton were dire against Burnley last time, offering next to nothing in attack. Koeman says they're scared to move the ball forward but that underplays their obvious lack of cohesion, for which the manager is to blame. There is no focal point in attack, an obvious and expected problem following Romelu Lukaku's departure, and pace on both flanks is lacking.

Throw in some awful defensive mistakes, particularly from Ashley Williams who has forgotten all he learned at Swansea when it comes to ball distribution, and it's no wonder that Everton's two Premier League wins so far this season have been narrow and hard-fought.

Brighton are hardly free-scoring - it's five so far this season to Everton's four - but they do look to have some interesting options in attack.

Pascal Gross has slotted in well to the number 10 role and will stay there with Davy Propper expected to be passed fit enough to maintain his 100% appearance record since arriving this summer, so it's any three from Solly March, Jose Izquierdo, Izzy Brown, Glenn Murray and Anthony Knockaert as Chris Hughton looks to engineer a third home win this season.

Knockaert has started both home league games since missing the opening-day defeat to Man City, but his contribution has been limited and with March, Izquierdo and Brown all looking dangerous at Arsenal, perhaps it's time for the attacking make-up of the home side to change.

Everton are favourites, but not on the strength of the form book. They are in fact behind Brighton on goal difference although it must be said that their fourth away game is a significant drop in class from the other three, at Man City (1-1), Chelsea (2-0) and Man Utd (4-0).

Still, it's hard to make a case for Koeman's side at 6/4 and a better bet is a goalless first half at 13/8. That's been the case in six of Brighton's nine games in all competitions, and the only first-half goal the Seagulls have managed this season came in the 45th minute.

They managed to keep Man City at bay until Sergio Aguero broke the deadlock on 70 minutes and the only early goals they've conceded came at Arsenal last time, where Brighton performed with great credit for no reward, and back in August when they went behind after a minute at Leicester.

Back at home, they should be confident of getting something here but that won't stop Hughton from pursuing a back-to-front game plan; that is to say that they will look to nullify whatever threat the visitors can conjure before looking to their own attacking options for another precious three points.

With a home win not quite big enough at 9/4, I'd much rather back 0-0 at half-time given that Everton's goal times read 35, 45, 77 and 82, and that they never really looked like scoring against Burnley last time.

If the Toffees are to stop the rot, Gylfi Sigurdsson could be the one at last. He struck for Iceland on Monday, albeit against minnows Kosovo, and interestingly found the net in three of his four starts immediately following international duty last season.

However, the most tempting options in the anytime market are Brighton trio March, Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy.

March hit the post as he again looked a threat at Arsenal, but it's centre-backs Dunk and Duffy who offer the most value at 14/1 apiece. Both have had chances this season, particularly Duffy who has had seven attempts from inside the opposition box and will convert one soon enough.

He's a former Everton player who scored against another ex-employer last season and could again expose weaknesses in the heart of Koeman's defence at 14/1 for those looking to bigger-priced options in what should be a tight, low-scoring affair which Brighton might just about edge.

Ben Coley's prediction: Brighton 1-0 Everton

Southampton v Newcastle (1600 BST, Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event)

Southampton will leapfrog Newcastle in the table if picking up their second home win of the season on Sunday, but look underpriced to do so at 10/11.

After two very strong seasons at St Mary's, in which they all but did enough to survive without playing an away game, Saints dipped to 24 home points last term and four from a possible 12 this time around hints at a malaise which they must work hard to shake.

Newcastle are not really the side you want to face if struggling to convert chances, having tightened up of late and held Liverpool to a 1-1 draw last time. They've taken 10 points from their last five matches and their three away games have produced just three goals, albeit they've lost two of them.

Southampton haven't scored at home since August 19 and their fortunate 3-2 victory over 10-man West Ham, so immediately the eye is drawn to under 2.5 goals at 17/20 or even under 1.5 at 2/1, prices which don't do justice to the reality of these sides, who were once better known for free-flowing, high-scoring football.

Those wanting bang for their buck can at least look to recent meetings for encouragement. Southampton won 3-1 to hammer a nail into the Newcastle coffin a couple of seasons back having drawn the reverse 2-2, and the two previous meetings here ended in thumping 4-0 wins to the hosts.

Survivors from those games are thin on the ground, however, and in what could and should be an altogether tighter encounter it might be worth chancing Virgil van Dijk to score at 9/1.

This will be his first home game since all but demanding a summer move and manager Mauricio Pellegrino has challenged van Dijk to win back the captaincy, perhaps before a January switch to Liverpool or even Barcelona.

While it's his performances at the back which will determine whether such a move goes ahead, van Dijk is a definite threat in attack as he showed when catching the eye at Stoke last time, before Maya Yoshida popped up with the equaliser.

With another pair of competitive outings under his belt with the Netherlands, he should be approaching peak fitness now and is expected to cut a determined figure as he reminds us all why he's bound for bigger and better things.

Southampton are right among the best teams in the division when it comes to earning corners and it may well be that their best opportunities come from set-pieces. The same could be said of Newcastle, for whom 12/1 chance Jamaal Lascelles continues to look dangerous, but van Dijk gets the vote.

Ben Coley's prediction: Southampton 1-1 Newcastle

Recommended bets: Sunday Premier League

2pts 0-0 at half-time in Brighton v Everton at 13/8

1pt Virgil van Dijk to score v Newcastle at 9/1

Posted at 1400 BST on 13/10/17.

Saturday's preview

Watford v Arsenal (1730, BT Sport 1)

A solitary point separates this pair and the Gunners better be on full alert as the lively Hornets look capable of springing a surprise and scuppering an obvious afternoon accumulator for punters involving them Chelsea, Manchester City and Spurs.

Marco Silva’s side are in the midst of their best ever Premier League start with a display of both skill and commitment to the cause as a number of relative unknowns in their ranks really start to shine under the Portuguese.

Richarlison, Andre Carillo and Abdoulaye Doucoure to name just a trio have been outstanding while there is a real determination in the ranks that has seen them score three goals in the 90th minute and beyond to help boost their points tally.

It is safe to say we can draw a line through a 6-0 home defeat to an irresistible Manchester City as Silva’s men have since shown plenty of character to record a win and a draw away from Vicarage Road and there is no obvious reason why they should be overly fearful when Arsenal come calling.

Arsene Wenger’s outfit have won six of their last seven without really hitting top gear and have the look of a team that is gradually moving towards something like their best form.

Rumours still swirl over the long-term futures of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez but they look more like a consistent unit than at any time in recent months as they remarkably go in search of a first Premier League goal away from the Emirates this season.

Petr Cech has kept four clean sheets on the trot as the unit in front of him solidifies after their hammering at Anfield but Laurent Koscielny and Shkodran Mustafi will both be missing from the heart of the defence and it looks an area that the home side are capable of exposing.

I am sure there will be plenty of punters keen to side with the progressive hosts in something like the Double Chance market but I have a feeling Arsenal will extend their excellent run and claim a maximum return.

David John's prediction: Watford 1-2 Arsenal - Sky Bet odds: 7/1

Burnley v West Ham (1500)

Sean Dyche gets my vote for any managerial awards up for grabs through seven games as his adaptable Claret artisans have started the season in tremendous style.

They may not have the flash world stars of some of their rivals but get full marks for team spirit and work ethic that has in turn led to a side with far greater confidence and belief in their own ability - just look at the wonderful goal to sink Everton before the international break.

The strange irony of it all is an excellent current away record after all last season’s anguish and it is up to Dyche to start building up the points at Turf Moor where they have registered a lone, scrambling victory over Crystal Palace and just one goal.

There is not much between them and the Hammers in the betting with that latter point in mind as Slaven Bilic endures anything but the reasonably serene progress so far experienced by his opposite number.

A last-gasp winner against Swansea may well have saved his skin but the Croat’s future still teeters on a knife-edge despite backing from the board for the umpteenth time.

He has been able to focus more on the attacking part of his strategy over the last fortnight with Marko Anautovic and a fit-again Manuel Lanzini available for selection but the flaky nature of West Ham still makes it so hard to predict what you will get from them from one week to the next.

There is a high chance both teams will score and that is represented by an odds-on quote while a stalemate gets my vote with just about enough conviction to suggest a bet at the price.

David John's prediction: Burnley 1-1 West Ham - Sky Bet odds: 9/2

Crystal Palace v Chelsea (1500)

Roy Hodgson has been in some dark places during his lengthy managerial career (England v Iceland in case you'd forgotten...) but the doom and gloom currently hanging over Selhurst Park is going to take some shifting.

A beastly run of Premier League fixtures rolls on to hosting the champions and it would not be the biggest shock in the world to see them eased to a double-figure quote come kick-off as the Eagles attempt to pull a rabbit out of the hat in a bid to stop the rot.

Their record stands at seven straight defeats in the top flight with no goals scored as back-to-back thrashings in Manchester hardly suggested any corners are imminently to be turned.

One slight glimmer is a return to full training for Wilfried Zaha but it is likely the slippery wing wizard will be deployed sparingly after a spell on the sidelines with a knee issue that stretches right back to the opening day of the season.

Christian Benteke and Connor Wickham are both unavailable so where that first Premier League goal is going to come from is not clear while their best player so far, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, is not allowed to face his parent club.

Throw in a record of one win from eight recent attempts at home against Chelsea with the latter not exactly in a charitable mood having been outplayed by Manchester City at Stamford Bridge and even Hodgson putting his most positive spin on the situation seems like an exercise in futility.

Antonio Conte has a couple of personnel issues to overcome with N’Golo Kante out and Alvaro Morata struggling to make the line-up but surely this will be little more than a relatively comfortable afternoon to leave Palace even deeper in the mire.

David John's prediction: Crystal Palace 0-2 Chelsea - Sky Bet odds: 5/1

Manchester City v Stoke (1500)

The gap widening even further between the top and middle section of the Premier League is highlighted by a whopping 20/1 quote for Stoke City ahead of their trip to the Etihad Stadium - a fixture in which the Potters actually held their hosts to a very creditable 0-0 draw as recently as last March.

They have in fact managed to shut out Pep Guardiola’s side in three of their last six meetings but the flip-side is them conceding four times on each of the other three occasions so it is certainly a roll of the dice in terms of what we can expect from Mark Hughes and his men.

One surefire conclusion we can draw is that City are really starting to maximise their potential and have looked head and shoulders above the vast majority of their rivals on a winning streak that now stretches to eight games in all competitions.

Striker Gabriel Jesus regained his scoring touch for Brazil in midweek which is very good news with Sergio Aguero back in light training but not available following his car accident last month.

Keeping Jesus, Kevin De Bruyne, Leroy Sane and David Silva at bay is not easy at the best of times but Hughes heads north without captain Ryan Shawcross while his midfield could be constantly over-run as both Darren Fletcher and Joe Allen are among the walking wounded following international duty.

Stoke’s awkward style has appealed to me at times in this fixture but City are in the mood at the moment to severely punish every team that stands in their way and could be in a position to really turn on the style and open up a gap at the summit depending on what happens earlier at Anfield.

David John's prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Stoke - Sky Bet odds: 6/1

David Wagner could be involved in another low-scoring affair

Swansea v Huddersfield (1500)

The Swans look a rather dubious proposition in their bid to justify favouritism at the Liberty Stadium with a home record this season that reads three straight defeats and just one goal scored.

Manager Paul Clement has received plenty of plaudits since taking over in south Wales for his tactical acumen but his plans have not been successful and drastic half-time tinkering in the crushing late 2-1 loss to Watford suggests he is still trying to figure what is or isn’t going to work.

The international break came just at the right time to perhaps draw a line under the opening section of the campaign and expectations will be high they can at last deliver against a newly-promoted rival.

The Terriers' sharp start has rather fizzled out and they were on the wrong end of a painful lesson last time at the John Smith’s Stadium when a couple of early errors were punished as Tottenham romped to a 4-0 victory.

This is much more the right level for manager David Wagner with a good chance to get back in the groove and at the very least take something from a fixture while the hosts still search for something to give them a kick-start.

Clement could be tempted to unleash both Tammy Abraham and Wilfried Bony in a bid to spark some positive activity in front of goal but the visitors are very solid operators in general at the back with four clean sheets in the book already.

I’d expect Alfie Mawson and Federico Fernandez to be bang on point in the heart of the home defence and although striker Steve Mounie is in contention to make a comeback for the visitors, this screams a low-scoring encounter.

David John's prediction: Swansea 0-1 Huddersfield - Sky Bet odds: 7/1

Tottenham v Bournemouth (1500)

We all still hold our breath waiting for Spurs to break their Premier League duck at Wembley and they won’t get a much better chance of finally picking up a victory and ending this ridiculous hoodoo hanging over them.

A record-breaking domestic crowd is expected to cheer them on as an imperious Harry Kane leads the line with just about everything he directs toward the goal seeming to find the back of the net.

Arguably the most coveted player in the world currently, he has 43 goals in 37 appearances this year with 15 in his last 10 for club and country as I get the real impression even one bobbling in off a knee or shin would finally open the floodgates for Spurs at Wembley.

Mauricio Pochettino has the ideal temperament to get his team in the right frame of mind and a performance somewhere in the region of 80% of those away from home would surely suffice.

That said, there are going to be some very glum faces in west London if they fail again to land odds of around 1/5 against a team battling to find some impetus with just one top-flight victory this season and stuck second bottom in the standings.

It has been very frustrating for manager Eddie Howe to sit and watch his side create plenty of chances yet fail to convert and perhaps veteran poacher Jermain Defoe’s powers are now starting to decline.

The news elsewhere for Howe is not great after Josh King tweaked a hamstring on duty for Norway but Callum Wilson is not far away from a return after two horrendous knee injuries and is looking fit and sharp by all reports having found the target in a reserve fixture.

He could be an interesting option from the bench but the Cherries are not really a side who set-up to make things awkward for a better standard of opponent so as long as the distraction of a trip to Real Madrid on Tuesday is not too great, then Spurs can at last collect those three precious home points.

David John's prediction: Tottenham 2-0 Bournemouth - Sky Bet odds - 6/1

Liverpool v Manchester United (1230 BST, Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event)

One of the marquee fixtures of any Premier League season should again make for compelling viewing despite last season’s dire draw at Anfield with Manchester United boss Jose Mourinho at the time still getting to know his new employers.

He took a fair amount of stick for his negative policy in the game almost a calendar year ago but exited Merseyside having importantly not lost and the return trip this time sees him in control of a much slicker operation.

Granted this will be their first showdown against a recognised top-six outfit but it is hard to quibble with Mourinho’s assessment that "we are better" than 12 months ago having since snaffled two pieces of silverware and started the new top-flight campaign with verve and purpose.

His opposite number Jurgen Klopp continues to watch his own side dominate rivals but fail to turn that into something resembling a consistent string of victories with just one nail-biting 3-2 triumph over Leicester in their last seven outings in all competitions.

Midfielder Emre Can turned stats boffin in a recent interview to reveal they have had 120 shots during that period but scored just eight goals while being punished time after time at the other end in a record that now boasts just a brace of clean sheets since the opening day on August 12.

That is the sort of form that will leave them flailing outside of the top six regardless so Klopp has some work to do one way or another - either score four times every game or seriously shape up at the back.

The former option has taken a fairly hefty hit with Sadio Mane ruled out for around six weeks while any serious faith in the Liverpool defence remains thin on the ground.

Joel Matip was perhaps unfortunate with the ricochet last time as Newcastle drew level on Tyneside but allowing Joselu into that position in the first place would have seen him taken to task by any Sunday league coach.

The gap between the pair could be 10 points come early Saturday afternoon and I fancy that will be the case with the visitors a tempting price of 9/5.

Brazilian whizz Philippe Coutinho is improving rapidly by the week and is a potent threat for the hosts but Mourinho has enough in-form firepower of his own this time to make the difference and secure all three points from a first serious test of his side's title credentials.

David John's prediction: Liverpool 1-2 Manchester United - Sky Bet odds: 17/2