Saturday's only Premier League game comes from Carrow Road, as bottom side Norwich welcome in-form Burnley.
Recommended bets
0.5pt Burnley to win and under 3.5 total goals at 2/1
0.5pt Dwight McNeil to score anytime at 13/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Norwich v Burnley
- 1730 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match Odds: Home 21/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 13/10
If you asked Burnley at the start of the season if they would take being two points adrift of Arsenal and four of Tottenham with 36 games of the Premier League played, Sean Dyche will have bitten your hand off.
Granted, the north London duo have not had the best of seasons by their lofty stands, but the Clarets have once again been incredible when you consider their budget and the size of the task for the Turf Moor club to be able to compete with the Premier League's giants.
They have lost just once since the Premier League restart, a forgivable 5-0 thrashing at Man City, and that is a record that stretches to just one defeat in 14. Incredible. Especially when you consider the size of their squad, injuries and losing players in June when their contracts expired.
A bit of luck helped them rescue a late draw against top-four chasing Wolves in midweek and they will look to finish the season strongly with winnable games at relegated Norwich before hosting Brighton.
The Clarets are understandably favourites for this one and chuck in a low-scoring victory (under 3.5 total goals to be sure) and you have a very appealing 2/1 price.
Dyche's men have been pretty decent on the road this season - they have the eighth best away record with six wins and five draws from 18.
Regardless of Liverpool already being champions, to become the first team to pick up points at Anfield with a draw last week was excellent.
Half of those away games have had less than 2.5 goals and only 17% of them have exceeded 3.5. The Burnley train is chugging along nicely and a win would do nicely here as they aim to finish in the top half. Another disciplined showing here should do it.
One slight concern, and why we are keeping it to small stakes, is that Norwich could put in a spirited performances now the shackles are off.
The weight of pressure from the relegation battle is off their shoulders and they can play freely before their return to the Sky Bet Championship.
Daniel Farke's demeanour was much improved after the Chelsea game on Tuesday, having lost 1-0 at Stamford Bridge, but their performance was much improved and the German had positives to take. And in the FA Cup, a break from the league fight last month, they took Man United to extra time, so they can play on the day.
But then again, against Chelsea and Man United they are bound to up their performance slightly anyway. These are factors why the Canaries could show fight and a draw has been considered. If that caution remains, backing Burnley draw no bet at 8/13 is worth a look.
But, despite these areas of concern to consider first, the overall confidence is with the visiting side to get a narrow win over the goal-shy Canaries, when they have a top-half finish to fight for and it is a great price for us.
More standout odds are available in the anytime goalscorer market on Dwight McNeil at 13/2. He is at a more modest 6/4 to get one on target, but we will take the risk for him to get on the score sheet.
The left-midfielder is only 20 years old and already has 65 Burnley appearances to his name and some of the big clubs are reportedly keeping an eye on him. He has been excellent and one of their best players this term.
One area he could do with improving is adding goals to his game. Being incredibly one-footed, he often tends to hug the sidelines and go on the outside and cross rather than cutting in field. That is why he has two goals to his name and three times as many assists in the league this term.
Saying that, it is not for the want of trying - the England U21 international averages 1.2 shots per game across the season, having at least one effort in all but one of his seven games since the restart.
He had four in one game in the away win at Crystal Palace last month - the 12th time this season he has registered at least two efforts in a game.
A hard-working, direct and traditional wide midfielder, McNeil is arguably one of Burnley's most dangerous outlets and if he is not scoring, he is likely to be playing a key role in creating - and can be backed at around 3/1 to get an assist.
But he is due a goal and can exploit Norwich's defensive frailties. Daniel Farke's men have shipped a league-high 68 goals this term, 40 of them coming from open play, and 19% of their shots have come from the opposition's left-hand side, 68% from the centre.
If McNeil turns up at Carrow Road in the mood and hungry for a goal, considering his attacking threat then this price is a great shout - but only worthy of a small play due to his ability in front of goal to date.
Prediction: Norwich 0-2 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: Price Boosted to 11/1)
Best bets:
Burnley to win and under 3.5 total goals at 2/1
Dwight McNeil to score anytime at 13/2
Opta stats
- Norwich will finish the 2019-20 campaign bottom of the Premier League – the first time they’ve finished at the foot of the top-flight since 1973-74. The Canaries have failed to score in a league-high 18 Premier League games this season, including 10 of the last 12.
- Norwich have lost 11 of their 18 Premier League home games this season (W4 D3). In their league history, they’ve only lost more at home once (12 in the 1946-47 Third Division South).
- Burnley are unbeaten in six Premier League games (W3 D3), scoring exactly once in each match. Indeed, the Clarets have won more Premier League points (12) than champions Liverpool (11) since the restart.
- Burnley have used just 12 of the 35 substitutes available to them in the Premier League since the restart, fewer than any other side. Indeed, the Clarets are making fewer subs-per-game with five available (1.7) than they were with just three this season (2).
- Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored four goals in his last three league games against Norwich, netting both goals in the Clarets’ 2-0 win in the reverse fixture this season.
- As well as going 12 Premier League games without a goal, Norwich’s Teemu Pukki hasn’t managed a shot on target in any of his last nine league games. He’d only failed to register a shot on target in eight of his first 26 appearances in the competition.
Odds correct as of 1045 BST on 16/07/20
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