Premier League: Match previews with free betting tips for matches on Sunday September 20

Recommended bets

2pts Southampton to make 20+ tackles against Tottenham at evens

1pt Both teams to score - No in Southampton v Tottenham at 23/20

1pt Under 1.5 goals in Newcastle v Brighton at 11/6

1pt Leicester to beat Burnley by a single goal at 5/2

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Southampton v Tottenham

• 12pm BST kick-off on BT Sport
• Match odds: Home 2/1 | Draw 12/5 | Away 13/10

The fixture computer really has served up a treat here, with TV editors no doubt salivating over archive footage ahead of a meeting where the match itself will play second fiddle to Gareth Bale. As the Real Madrid star puts the finishing touches to his sensational Spurs return, his two former clubs meet in the Premier League. What timing.

Neither have started the season well, although a late flurry from Tottenham in Plovdiv on Thursday meant they did just about scrape into the third round of Europa League qualifying.

Both teams were beaten 1-0 last weekend, Southampton at Palace and Spurs by Everton, before a full-strength Saints lost 2-0 to Brentford in the Carabao Cup. Spurs may have avoided embarrassment, and a major inquisition thanks to Bale’s impending arrival, in Bulgaria but their performance should raise alarm bells.

Until Lokomotiv were reduced to nine men and Harry Kane’s consequent penalty made it 1-1, all between the 78th and 80th minutes, Jose Mourinho’s men showed little improvement from their dismal opening weekend defeat.

And Tottenham won’t be expecting any let-up on Sunday against a Southampton team with an excellent recent record against them. Only once in their past seven meetings have Spurs had it easy, when they raced into a three-goal lead at home in December 2018 before winning 3-1.

At St Mary’s, Saints have managed two wins and a draw in the league, and it was 1-1 in the FA Cup last season too. Away from home they’ve given Spurs a tough time, losing 3-2 and 2-1 in hard-fought matches last season.

Combine that with current form and Tottenham feel skinny at 13/10. I wouldn’t be confident backing either to win, but if I had to really stick my neck on the line I would plump for Spurs - it gets nowhere near my staking plan mind. The value is undoubtedly with the draw at 9/4.

But it's the both teams to score market that I'm looking towards, and there's value there for good reason. Tottenham topped last season’s BTTS table (25 from 38) with Saints second (23), but I'm going against the grain. I cannot bring myself to back both to score given their current struggles in front of goal.

Southampton haven’t found the net in either of their matches this season. Spurs needed a penalty and two players to be sent off to break the deadlock against a Bulgarian team. Both teams to score – no is odd-against, which does not stack up.

Does it make me slightly uncomfortable to back one of these teams to keep a clean sheet? A little. But five of Saints’ last seven home games have failed to see both teams score, and since Mourinho seemed to make it his personal mission to bore anyone watching a Tottenham match to tears - 12 matches ago - BTTS has been a 50/50 occurrence.

It’s a good price.

A second bet makes the grade for the match at St Mary's, which I went into detail about in our Premier League: Punting Pointers earlier this week. Saints are evens for 20+ tackles, 5/4 for 21+ tackles and 6/1 for 28+ tackles with Sky Bet.

They are a consistent 20+ tackles team under Ralph Hasenhuttl and it is not uncommon for them to exceed 30; they achieved 28 against Palace last Saturday.

With their rope-a-dope, low block tactics, Spurs could well mirror what Hasenhuttl's side were up against at Selhurst Park. Tottenham's opponents on opening day were Everton, who made 19 tackles.

I really like the odds of Saints to pass the 20 mark against Mourinho's men, and I wouldn't blame you for throwing some small stakes at the higher end of the scale too.

Score prediction: Southampton 0-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best bets:

• Southampton to make 20+ tackles against Tottenham at evens
• Both teams to score - No at 23/20

Opta stats

• Southampton have won both of their last two home league games against Tottenham; they had won none of their previous six such matches against Spurs at St. Mary’s before this (D2 L4).
• Tottenham have lost two of their last three Premier League meetings with Southampton (W1), as many as their previous 15 before this (W11 D2). Spurs last lost back-to-back league games against Saints back in March 2004 (three in a row).
• Against no other current Premier League side are Spurs on a longer wait for a clean sheet than they are versus Southampton, failing to keep a shutout in any of their last nine meetings with Saints (also nine v Liverpool).
• Southampton have won their first home game in just one of their 21 Premier League campaigns (D10 L10), with that victory coming against Blackburn in their relegation season of 2004-05 (3-2).
• Tottenham haven’t started a Premier League campaign with back-to-back defeats since 2011-12. However, Spurs are unbeaten in their first away game in each of their last four Premier League seasons (W2 D2).
• Southampton have won each of their last four Premier League games played on a Sunday, as many as they managed across their previous 23 such games (D8 L11). Meanwhile, Tottenham have lost more Premier League games on Sunday than any other side, with last week’s loss against Everton their 88th such defeat.
• Southampton averaged 71% possession in their MD1 defeat at Crystal Palace, the highest of any Premier League team across the opening weekend. It’s the second consecutive Premier League game that Saints have averaged over 70% possession, having done so in just two of their last 251 games in the competition.
• Danny Ings has scored in both of his Premier League appearances for Southampton against Tottenham – only against Norwich City (3) has he scored in more consecutive appearances in the competition.
• Tottenham’s Dele Alli has been involved in more Premier League goals against Southampton than he has any other side in the competition (9 - 5 goals, 4 assists).
• Harry Kane has scored nine goals in his last nine league appearances against Southampton; the Tottenham striker only has more Premier League goals against Leicester (15) and Arsenal (10).

Newcastle v Brighton

• 2pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
• Match odds: Home 13/8 | Draw 11/5 | Away 7/4

For the first time in a while, and perhaps surprisingly given the collapse of the much-vaunted Saudi takeover during the close-season, Newcastle fans can rightly feel optimistic.

The positivity was already building when Callum Wilson, Jamal Lewis and Ryan Fraser followed fellow new signing Jeff Hendrick into St James', but debut goals from Wilson and Hendrick in a 2-0 win at West Ham on opening day sent that up several notches. When a totally changed XI beat Blackburn 1-0 in the Carabao Cup, Fraser this time scoring on his debut, Newcastle fans could have been forgiven for starting to get carried away.

But now they face a bogey team.

Brighton were impressive for large spells of their opening fixture, but went down 3-1 to Chelsea. It continued their 2019/20 pattern of having a superb defensive record in matches with everyone other than the top four, against who they capitulate.

A quick response saw them beat Sky Beat League One side Portsmouth 4-0 in their midweek cup tie to take some momentum into Sunday's league match, which they can feel pretty confident about getting a result in.

Newcastle have never beaten Brighton in the Premier League, with Albion winning twice and the other four meetings ending in draws. And to say they have been snorefests is to do this fixture’s sheer commitment to a lack of goals a disservice - just four goals have been scored in total.

Only once have both teams scored and only once has their been more than one goal scored in the game - 1-1 at the Amex in 2018/19. Both of last season’s matches ended goalless. Before you race to check, this is far from some kind of misleading historical stat as these meetings have come in successive seasons since 2017.

For the punters willing to lay down a hefty stake, under 2.5 goals has to be the bet. The problem there though is, you are look at miserly returns, with best odds of 11/18. It's very surprising to see under 1.5 goals at 11/6 - a price that we ought to be taking advantage of.

Score prediction: Newcastle 0-0 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best bet: Under 1.5 goals at 11/6

Opta stats

• Newcastle are without a win in all six of their previous Premier League meetings with Brighton (D4 L2), failing to score at all in five of those games.
• Brighton have only lost one of their last six league visits to Newcastle (W2 D3), keeping a clean sheet in all three of their games at St. James’ Park in the Premier League (W1 D2) since a 0-2 Championship loss in August 2016.
• Of the 712 Premier League fixtures to have been played three or more times, Newcastle v Brighton is the only one to average less than a goal-per-game, with just four goals being scored in six meetings between the sides (0.67 per game).
• Following their 2-0 win at West Ham on the opening day, Newcastle are looking to start a league season with consecutive victories for the first time since 1997-98.
• Brighton are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League away games (W2 D5) – no side is on a longer current unbeaten run on the road than the Seagulls.
• Newcastle haven’t won their opening home game in any of their last six Premier League campaigns (D2 L4), losing each of the last three in a row. Their last such victory came against Spurs in the 2012-13 season.
• Brighton had more shots from outside the box than any other Premier League side on the opening weekend (6), with Leandro Trossard’s goal against Chelsea coming from distance.
• After scoring on his Newcastle debut on MD1, Callum Wilson is looking to score in consecutive Premier League matches for the first time since a run of four in August/September 2019.
• Both Callum Wilson and Jeff Hendrick scored on their Premier League debuts for Newcastle against West Ham last week – only Les Ferdinand in August 1995 has scored in both of his first two appearances for the club in the competition.
• In their opening defeat to Chelsea, Brighton’s Tariq Lamptey had the joint-most chances created, the joint-most open play crosses and the joint-highest number of tackles and interceptions among all the Brighton players.

Mark O'Haire's Super Sunday preview

The Reds are fair enough at the prices but combining Klopp’s charges with a goals-based approach could provide punters with a bit more insurance at a palatable price. Taking Liverpool in the Double Chance market alongside Both Teams To Score is an appealing even-money option with Betfair/Paddy Power and looks a reasonable route in.

However, goals are clearly anticipated considering six of Liverpool’s nine trips to the top-half last term featured Over 2.5 Goals and seven of Chelsea’s 10 against the top-six following suit.

The Blues kept only two shutouts when welcoming top-10 outfits to Stamford Bridge in Lampard’s maiden campaign, whilst three of four meetings with Man City and Liverpool saw BTTS backers collect. Therefore, Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score is the play at 4/5.

Score prediction: Chelsea 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at 17/20

Click here to read Mark O'Haire's preview in full.

Leicester v Burnley

• 7pm BST kick-off on BBC
• Match odds: Home 3/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 17/4

I don't hold out much hope for Burnley in this one, but then again that shouldn't shock readers of my ante-post relegation preview which backed them to join Fulham and West Brom in being relegated from the top flight this season. But I'm not expecting them to naively lose 3-0 like the newly-promoted did in their opening fixtures.

The Clarets' big problem is a lack of squad strengthening, which has followed a long-term under-investment in the squad.

Injuries and suspensions will be keenly felt, so for Sean Dyche's men to be without captain Ben Mee, Jack Cork and Ashley Barnes first up is a body blow. West Ham target James Tarkowski is expected to return though after missing the Carabao Cup tie with Sheffield United in midweek, which Burnley won on penalties after a 1-1 draw.

Leicester are yet to address their own lack of squad depth which ultimately cost them a top four place last season, but they looked comfortable enlisting a makeshift backline at West Brom, and much more like their old selves.

Only once have the these sides drawn in their last nine meetings, and on seven occasions the match has been settled by a single goal. Expect that to continue as Dyche is not a manager to go all in - Burnley will arrive at the King Power with the aim of keeping things tight and frustrating Brendan Rodgers' side.

The offering of 5/2 for Leicester to win by a single goal is appealing, and where I'm heading for this one given the circumstances.

Betway offers a one-goal winning margin market at 6/4, allowing for a backs-to-the-wall Clarets win, which would be far from a shock given their tendency to upset the odds.

I'm sticking with Leicester to edge it though.

Score prediction: Leicester 2-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best bet: Leicester to win by a single goal at 5/2

Opta stats

• Leicester are unbeaten in nine home league games against Burnley (W5 D4), including all five of their games against them at the King Power Stadium in the Premier League (W3 D2).
• Burnley are looking to earn back-to-back league wins over Leicester for the first time since August 2006 when they won three in a row, and the first time in the top-flight since December 1968 (also three in a row).
• The away side opened the scoring in both Premier League meetings between Leicester and Burnley last season. However, the home side came back to win 2-1 on each occasion.
• Leicester have lost their opening home game in just one of their last 13 Premier League campaigns (W7 D5), going down 0-5 against Bolton in 2001-02.
• Leicester have only won both of their first two games to a Premier League campaign twice before – in 1997-98 and most recently in their title winning season of 2015-16.
• Burnley have won their opening league game in two of the last three seasons (D1), as many as they had in their previous nine league campaigns (W2 D3 L4).
• Burnley lost just one of their last eight Premier League away games in 2019-20 (W5 D2), going down 0-5 at Manchester City. However, the Clarets have won their first away game in just one of their six previous Premier League campaigns, beating Chelsea 3-2 in 2017-18.
• Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has won 99 of his 209 Premier League matches in charge (D51 L59). Victory here will see him become the 23rd different manager to 100 wins in the competition, while he’d be the fourth quickest British manager to reach the milestone, after Alex Ferguson (162 games), Kenny Dalglish (197) and Kevin Keegan (209).
• Since the start of last season, Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has scored more Premier League goals than any other player (25), scoring twice from the spot on MD1. He’s also got the best shot conversion rate in the competition in that time (min 10 goals), netting with 27.5% of his shots (25/91).
• Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored in each of his last three Premier League games – he last scored in four consecutive league games in January 2017, with Leeds in the Championship.

Odds correct at 1200 BST 18/09/20

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