Premier League relegation battle preview: Free betting tips & predictions on West Ham v Aston Villa, Arsenal v Watford & Everton v Bournemouth
We preview the final day fixtures involving the sides fighting to stay in the Premier League: West Ham v Aston Villa, Arsenal v Watford and Everton v Bournemouth.
Recommend bets
1pt Arsenal to win to nil at 3/1
1pt Everton to win and over 2.5 total goals at 21/10
0.5pt Tyrone Mings to score anytime at 12/1
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Aston Villa (4/11) are huge odds-on to stay up heading into the final day while realistically Watford (11/4) need something at Arsenal and Bournemouth (14/1) need a perfect storm - which is far from out of the question.
There tends to be at least one moment of real drama in any relegation battle, and we've already had at least two. First Watford sacked Nigel Pearson with only a couple of games to play, which didn't stop them being thrashed by Manchester City, and second Aston Villa shocked Arsenal to climb out of the bottom three at the Hornets' expense.
Is there room for one more major twist on Sunday?
Premier League table as it stands
What do they need?
Right, this is a little complicated.
Aston Villa are firmly in the driving seat as they start the day above the dotted line, meaning they could lose and be safe. But so could Watford. Villa could also win and go down. See, this is complicated.
As Watford and Villa start the final day on the same points, three ahead of Bournemouth, should either avoid defeat while the other doesn't, then they're safe. Bournemouth would then be relegated, regardless of their own result.
Should Eddie Howe's side fail to win then they're down. It also presents a further scenario where Watford can overhaul Villa: if the Hornets lose by two fewer goals than Dean Smith's team, then they're safe. Regardless of Bournemouth, a Watford winning margin of two greater than Aston Villa will keep them up too.
It has to be at least a two-goal swing because Villa have the better goals scored record.
For the Cherries it's very, very simple. If they win and the others lose, they'll stay up - I think that makes 14/1 worth a punt.
Arsenal v Watford preview
On and off the pitch Watford look to have made a mess of this fight for survival, with the sacking of Nigel Pearson now looking even worse than it did originally.
A 5-0 thumping by Manchester City plunged them into the bottom three on goal difference, and they've now most likely got to beat Arsenal to stay up - the same Arsenal Troy Deeney said didn't have the "cojones" for the battle a few years ago.
Mikel Arteta will also demand a good finish after losing at Villa, and there are FA Cup final places up for grabs so motivation will be there. Watford look doomed.
Arsenal v Watford betting tips (George Pitts)
Match Odds: Home 11/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 21/10
After beating Liverpool and Man City in the space of a few days, it was typical of Arsenal to then lose at Aston Villa.
But it was their third match in a week and came soon after working so hard in that FA Cup semi-final win at Wembley.
Playing another relegation-battling team on the final day, you would not be surprised to see them crumble again, as with Villa and Brighton, although both away. But managerless Watford are on a downward trajectory after the events of the last 10 days and it is hard to see them getting something at the Emirates.
While they should throw the kitchen sink at it – they have no choice – and we want final day drama, we expect an improved Arsenal performance and the story of the Hornets’ season has ultimately been the failure to take their chances.
Considering the Gunners’ improvement in defence since Arteta’s arrival – 11 clean sheets in all competitions – 3/1 on them keeping one here to see out a disappointing league season and rain on Watford’s hopes looks decent value on a home win.
Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Arsenal to win to nil at 3/1
Arsenal v Watford Opta stats
- Arsenal have won five of their six Premier League home games against Watford (L1), keeping a clean sheet in each victory.
- Watford have conceded at least once in each of their last nine Premier League games – no side is on a longer current run without a clean sheet in the competition.
- Watford are winless in seven Premier League away games (D1 L6), losing each of the last five in a row. The Hornets’ last four Premier League away wins have been against sides who were in the bottom four of the table.
- Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored four goals in his four Premier League games against Watford, though three of these strikes have come at Vicarage Road.
Everton v Bournemouth preview
You've got to feel sorry for Bournemouth in some ways as they've rallied, too late to get clear of the drop zone, but they at least have a chance - even if it is a slim one.
At least Eddie Howe's side know they have to win at Everton, so there's no messing about with draws or listening in to the other games. That clarity of thought will be an advantage, and it's not like Villa or Watford haven't lost a few games already this season.
They played superbly in their narrow defeat at Man City, following on from that win over Leicester, which was remarkable, and a draw with Spurs, but Eddie Howe's side have definitely picked up just too late.
Everton also have nothing to play for.
Everton v Bournemouth betting tips (George Pitts)
Match Odds: Home 5/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 9/5
Eddie Howe was strongly linked with the vacant position at Goodison in December after Marco Silva’s sacking. What could have been. Now the Cherries boss must beat the team he supported as a boy and hope results go his side's way to ensure Premier League survival.
A goalless draw with Spurs and a surprise 4-1 win over Leicester is all they have to show for post-lockdown football.
This Bournemouth side have some talented individuals, but they have been heading for the drop for some time, with only Norwich (eight) collecting fewer points than their 11 this calendar year.
They're going to have to show some fight and take risks on the final day, which leaves them open at the back, but they can at least trouble a defence and Everton side that still needs plenty of work from Carlo Ancelotti – having won just one of their last five.
With that urgency from Bournemouth, the Toffees can capitalise and a home win with plenty of goals gives us a nice price.
Prediction: Everton 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Everton to win and over 2.5 total goals at 21/10
Everton v Bournemouth Opta stats
- Everton have won all four of their Premier League home games against Bournemouth, netting at least twice each time (12 goals in total).
- There have been 35 goals scored in nine Premier League meetings between Everton and Bournemouth (3.9 per game). Among fixtures to have been played at least eight times in the competition, only Blackburn v Nottingham Forest has a higher goals-per-game ratio (4.0 – 40 in 10).
- Among current Premier League players, no-one has scored more match-day 38 goals in the competition than Everton’s Theo Walcott (6).
West Ham v Aston Villa preview
Out of nowhere, it's all now in Villa's hands as they head to West Ham knowing that realistically a reasonable victory will see them remain in the Premier League.
That late Theo Walcott goal at Goodison was a blow, but they were no doubt fired up by watching Watford get thumped by Man City prior to their own victory over Arsenal - that could be the result that keeps them up.
There's sure to be someone keeping an eye on matters at the Emirates just in case, as goal difference could yet come in to play, but against a West Ham side that are in great form, but already safe, Villa will surely back themselves.
West Ham v Aston Villa betting tips (George Pitts)
Match Odds: Home 21/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 11/10
After going unbeaten in their last three games, scoring eight and collecting seven points, you wonder if it is a corner turned for West Ham. With job done and the pressure of relegation now off, they could put in another good performance. But the hunger and desire of Aston Villa should shine through.
Dean Smith’s side know that a win here, matching or bettering Watford’s result, would guarantee their top-flight status.
Jack Grealish revealed on Tuesday how Villa have improved defensively and at set pieces at both ends thanks to hard work on their shape, done on Zoom, over lockdown. They scored from a free-kick at Everton and a corner against Arsenal, centre-back Ezri Konsa finding the back of the net at Goodison while Tyrone Mings provided the assist against the Gunners.
They've scored 15 from set pieces this term, while West Ham have conceded 10 and David Moyes’ side still remain shaky at the back.
So it's incredibly tempting to back either centre-back to get a vital goal here in what could be a cagey game - and when Mings is at 12s and Konsa at a best price of 18/1. Mings’ presence in the opposition box makes him the preference for a small play.
Despite Villa’s improved defence, having to go for it could mean they need to score a couple to be sure of their status. A shade under evens for them to net at least a couple looks a good option to get them over the line.
Prediction: West Ham 0-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bets:
West Ham v Aston Villa Opta stats
- Since the Premier League resumed in June, West Ham have earned 11 points from their eight games (W3 D2 L3); this is as many as they had accrued across the 15 such matches directly before the season was temporarily suspended in March (W3 D2 L10).
- Aston Villa are looking to avoid being the 10th side to fail to record a clean sheet on the road in a Premier League campaign. For the Villans, it would be the second occasion that they’ve not had a shutout away from home in a single season in the competition (also, 2010/11).
- Aston Villa’s Trézéguet has scored three goals in his last three Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 30 in the competition.
Odds correct as of 1100 BST on 24/07/20
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