A dejected Mikel Arteta

Premier League betting: Premier League review and how the relegation and top four betting odds have changed

By Paul Higham

Football

Mon June 22, 2020 · 4y ago

Arsenal have taken themselves out of the European race where Chelsea still lead the way, while it looks like two from three in the fight against relegation.

The first Premier League weekend of the restart may have thrown up a few more questions than answers, but there was intrigue at both ends of the table as the contenders for relegation and European qualification enjoyed differing fortunes.

Liverpool were frustrated by Everton at Goodison, but it’s another point ticked off and while the market is still open on this year’s Premier League winner the Reds are 1/1000 and Man City 100/1 to somehow claw it back over the last eight games.

Next up for Liverpool is Crystal Palace at home on Wednesday while City face Burnley on Monday and then a trip to Chelsea on Thursday.

Race for Europe – Gunners out of the running

Stick a fork in Arsenal as they look well and truly done after suffering two defeats already – we expected the one at City but not the one at Brighton. That home advantage paid off for the Seagulls!

Mikel Arteta has a real problem that goes beyond just David Luiz and Mesut Ozil, and with Wolves, Leicester, Spurs and Liverpool still to come that six-point gap to sixth might as well be 50.

They face Southampton next and there’ll be plenty of money for the Saints at 8/5 to inflict yet another damaging defeat.

Premier League top four finish odds

1/6 - Leicester
4/9 - Chelsea
11/8 - Man Utd
5/1 - Wolves

Click here for the full market

That’s why they’re 8/1 to finish in the top six yet only 11/4 to finish in the bottom half. They’re tenth now but only three points above 14th-placed Southampton. With Palace above them and Burnley and Everton just one and two points behind respectively, the Gunners need to be looking down more than up.

Manchester United were the sexy pick to finish fourth and Paul Pogba’s cameo at Spurs had seen them shorten up a touch to 11/8 for a top four finish before Chelsea then extended their lead over them to five points.

Bruno Fernandes remains their star man, and with a final-day trip to Leicester their only remaining fixture of any real note after they meet Sheffield United this week, Man United could run Chelsea close. But five points is still a sizeable gap to make up.

Chelsea look decent under Frank Lampard and they’re 4/9 for a top four finish. Those odds will change one way or another after they face Man City on Thursday, and they still have Liverpool and Wolves to play in their last two games.

Wolves were impressive at West Ham, that’s not saying much I suppose, but the rest will have done wonders for them and as 5/1 outsiders for the top four they might be tempting for some – especially as if they can get into striking distance they face Chelsea in that final game.

There was a lot to like about Spurs on Friday and they could finish strong, but earning four more points than Wolves and Man Utd over eight games is a step too far – seventh is their best hope and finishing above Sheffield United.

Verdict: The Blades, sadly, look like they might have run out of steam in their epic European challenge – and that’s even before they face Man Utd, Spurs, Wolves, Chelsea and Leicester.

Too much traffic for Spurs to get over and while Chelsea's five-point gap looks secure now with eight games left, that could very easily be down to two points come Friday morning - with then Liverpool and Wolves to play in their last two games.

That 5/1 on Wolves to finish in the top four may just be worth a punt then.

Given how they've started the re-start though, Arsenal to finish in the bottom half of the table really catches my eye at 11/4.

Relegation – Two out of three

It’s going to be awfully tight at the bottom but I think we can at least rule Newcastle and Southampton out of the equation after they enjoyed wins upon their return.

Things are so strange these days that not only did Newcastle score three, but Joelinton got one himself – his second goal in 30 Premier League games and 301 days after his last one. It was against ten-man Sheff Utd though…

Norwich (1/33) look doomed I’m afraid but there’s still hope for Aston Villa (2/7) despite their defeat against Chelsea. They’re just one point behind West Ham and Bournemouth and two behind Watford.

Premier League relegation odds

1/33 - Norwich
2/7 - Aston Villa
1/2 - Bournemouth
13/8 - West Ham
5/2 - Watford

Click here for the betting market

Brighton look capable of climbing clear after beating Arsenal, although they have some tough fixtures coming up, but you can’t see the bottom sides catching them.

Bournemouth were poor against Southampton and it’s hard to see them turning around their form with some tough games ahead. Despite them being 1/2 I’d probably have them shorter – they just look like a side destined to go down.

What you do to try and separate Villa, West Ham and Watford though is anyone’s guess.

No crowds means no home advantage, which means the better quality team will win more often – that’s the trend from the Bundesliga. And that’s bad news for all three of these.

If you look through their fixture list it’s hard to see any one of the three getting more than six points at an absolute maximum, and it will probably come down to games between themselves.

West Ham v Aston Villa on the final day of the season could just end up being a straight shoot-out to stay up. The Hammers also play Norwich and Watford in their final four games and those games will make all the difference.

Verdict: Having watched them all play, it certainly looks like Norwich and Bournemouth had given up the ghost, even though the Cherries are still well in touch. I backed them a while ago to go down citing the atmosphere at the club just not being right - nothing I've seen since has changed my mind.

It's the third team to go down that is so difficult to judge right now, everyone assumes Watford are fine but they are just one point outside the bottom three - one point! And with games against West Ham and Villa to come they could make all the difference.

This Villa side just does not look right though, disjointed and tactically inept - there's a reason they've conceded more than anyone else, and it's that porous defence that looks like costing them.

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