The race to make England’s Euro 2020 squad is hotting up, and Michael Beardmore is backing several Southampton players to deliver at big returns and land a spot in the final 23.
In exactly seven months' time, England are set to run out at Wembley for their opening Euro 2020 fixture against Croatia.
And while we could all easily scribble down a good 12-15 names who are certain Gareth Southgate picks, history proves there is still plenty of time for a player or two to break through.
With a season so crammed that top-flight managers are already complaining about the demands on their players, injuries are also sure to play a factor, potentially allowing a couple of surprise packages to book a spot on the plane, coach or however it is the Three Lions will travel next summer.
The unfolding international triple header against the Republic of Ireland, Belgium and Iceland is giving the likes of Bukayo Saka, Conor Coady, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Reece James and Jude Bellingham the opportunity to embed themselves firmly into Southgate’s thoughts.
But with three-quarters of a bizarre Premier League campaign, that has already been full of shocks and goals, yet to unravel, there is still time for other faces to thrust themselves forward – and for some Saints to keep marching on.
Sticky situation between the sticks?
It’s not beyond the realms of reality to suggest that the goalkeeping department is quickly becoming Southgate’s greatest area of worry.
Jordan Pickford was dropped, then recalled, by Everton boss Carlo Ancelotti before the international break and Dean Henderson is playing back-up to David de Gea at Old Trafford, so just how much game time are England’s keepers going to get this season?
Nick Pope is first choice at Burnley and was handed a start against the Republic. He should be assured of a spot, but if Pickford and Henderson see a drop in form or a campaign warming the bench, Southgate could be forced into the same decision he was brave enough to make with Joe Hart before the 2018 World Cup.
With that in mind, there is an interesting punt at play here as the trio of Pickford (1/10), Henderson (1/6) and Pope (1/5) – all heavily odds-on with Sky Bet to make the squad – should surely be given a wide berth.
Aaron Ramsdale and Tom Heaton (both 3/1) come next in the betting but the former has endured a rocky start at Sheffield United and the latter is unlikely to displace Emi Martinez when he returns from injury for Aston Villa, with the Argentine himself a recent recipient of his first international call-up.
Instead, Alex McCarthy at 12/1 looks an interesting prospect. The Southampton stopper has kept four clean sheets in the high-flying Saints’ opening eight Premier League games and has an England cap in 2018 on his resume, which is one more than Henderson.
Where have all the left-backs gone?
Southgate has picked more than 30 different defenders during his four-year reign as England boss – but are we anywhere nearer knowing what the Three Lions’ first-choice back-line would look like?
Gone are the days of automatic picks like Ashley Cole, John Terry, Rio Ferdinand and Gary Neville when England, arguably, had several world-class defenders. Now, they have a depth of decent talent but a dearth of top quality.
Results bear this out – while England keep clean sheets for fun against minnows, average sides and semi-decent nations in qualifying campaigns, when they meet an elite country in a competitive fixture (see Spain, Belgium, Croatia and the Netherlands in the past two years) it’s a different story.
In Trent Alexander-Arnold - and a gazillion other right-backs - and Ben Chilwell, England do have two full-backs with the potential to reach the heights of their illustrious predecessors but it’s at centre-half where the problems lie, not helped by the freak training ground injury that this week left Joe Gomez needing knee surgery.
Harry Maguire retains Southgate’s faith despite a dodgy patch, Eric Dier and Kyle Walker are squad mainstays, while Wolves’ Conor Coady has impressed too since his belated call-up. All are odds-on.
But where the depth is sorely lacking is left-back, summed up by Southgate's use of Kieran Tripper and other right-backs out of position in plenty of recent internationals. Those selections were necessitated by Chilwell's absence, but who comes next?
At the moment, it would appear Bukayo Saka is the man possession of the deputy role but the Arsenal man is most certainly not a left-back. Superb going forward, and very capable as a wing-back, the winger would be a square peg in a round hole if asked to play in a back four.
He is short-priced and not worth gong near anyway, which leads us to Luke Shaw at 7/1. Punters could do a lot worse than Manchester United’s former Southampton star, despite his current hamstring injury.
The England manager clearly rates him. He was a big favourite of Southgate's during his time as Under-21s boss, and last month he said Shaw is "capable of being the best left-back in the country" - high praise indeed given Chilwell’s form which makes his odds of 7/1 to be among the 23 enticing.
Shaw will still be just 25-years-old when the Euros come round, and rather eye-wateringly he already has major tournament experience having gone to the 2014 World Cup as a teenager.
Midfield magic – who’s the ace up the sleeve?
Thankfully, Southgate is finally seeing what the majority of Premier League fans have seen for the past 15 months – that Jack Grealish is a top, top player.
Having been instrumental in Aston Villa’s survival last term and subsequent storming start this season, Grealish was rightly rewarded with an international debut in Denmark and excelled in October’s 3-0 friendly win over Wales.
Grealish has been backed in from 1/3 to 1/5 this week to make next summer’s squad with Jordan Henderson, Declan Rice, Mason Mount, James Maddison and Phil Foden also odds-on.
It’s difficult not to see any of those six not making the squad, barring injuries, but the value lies elsewhere, particularly in the form of two men who are having barnstorming starts to the season.
Borussia Dortmund’s Jude Bellingham tempts at 11/4 as, let’s face it, England love a teenage tournament call-up, but the man he replaced in this week’s squad is even more appealing.
James Ward-Prowse at 3/1 is a superb price. He already has four caps to his name and although he had to withdraw from the current squad through injury, there will be chances to force his way back in when 2021 rolls around.
The Saints skipper has not only netted three goals this season, he also ranks in the top 30 individual Premier League statistics for both key passes and tackles made, showcasing his all-round game – 3/1 looks big when the likes of Dele Alli, Harry Winks and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain are shorter.
He has only shown his canny side while playing for the national team, although that did get him in Roy Keane's bad books. Glass houses Roy...
Ings can only get better for England
Death and taxes are the only certainties in life – oh, and the fact Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho will be in England’s squad next summer.
Those four are a minuscule 1/16 each, which means, again barring injuries, there are probably only one or perhaps two forward slots left to fill.
As mentioned earlier, it would be foolish to discount injuries, thus I would not dissuade anyone from looking at longer-odds options like Ollie Watkins (12/1), Patrick Bamford (18/1) and even Jamie Vardy (20/1) should main man Kane be hurt.
Both Watkins and Bamford have adapted to life as a Premier League starter well with Villa and Leeds respectively, and it’s not inconceivable that either could sneak in to the 23.
But Sky Bet’s market has narrowed the race to three strikers – Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Mason Greenwood and Danny Ings (6/4) – and I agree with them.
What did surprise me, though, is that Ings – currently injured but due back in December – is third favourite, with Calvert-Lewin a skinny 1/2 and Manchester United’s Greenwood 11/10.
With Greenwood struggling for game time at Old Trafford and having incurred Southgate’s wrath by breaching coronavirus restrictions, I’m inclined to peg him as the outsider.
Calvert-Lewin has been outstanding this term – eight Premier League goals in eight games for Everton plus a Carabao Cup hat-trick but Ings is not far behind on five and hit 22 last term. It’s tight between the pair but when one is 1/2 and the other 6/4, Ings is the value.
Southgate has made him part of the plans this season when fit, so there's no reason to think he's anything but bang in contention to make the final 23.
Odds correct at 1815 GMT (12/11/20)
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