Ollie Watkins' evolution under Unai Emery shows he is ready for the next step
The star of Ollie Watkins continues to rise.
- Published before Ollie Watkins' goal and assist in Aston Villa v West Ham
He's had a slow start to the season, but Watkins looks ready to get back to his goalscoring best after helping England to a 1-0 win over Australia during the break.
The Aston Villa forward already has eight goal contributions to date in the Premier League, most notably scoring a hat-trick against Brighton in a 6-1 hammering of the Seagulls.
It's no secret that Unai Emery's appointment has changed his fortunes, but what makes the 27-year-old so good and can he get even better?
Focusing on being a number nine
"I feel like I have gone on a different path and really focused on being a striker. Before, I was trying to do everything, now I am just focused, being the main man," explained Watkins, speaking to The Telegraph.
Watkins's improvement is inextricably linked with the instructions being given to him by Emery, which have worked wonders for his form.
Tasked with staying central more often now, Watkins doesn't receive the ball as much in the channels and has therefore become much better at occupying opposition centre-backs in a variety of ways.
Watkins's timing of runs in offensive transition and when attacking the box against low-blocks is outstanding, his opener against Brighton is a prime example of that.
Staying in front of Adam Webster and patiently waiting for his chance to attack the six-yard box, he was rewarded with an excellent cutback from Matty Cash. He did the same for one of his hat-trick goals against Hibernian as well.
The best strikers are the ones who can time their runs to get those seemingly easy tap-ins and with Villa's structure as it is shaped now, Watkins has plenty of opportunities to do that.
Emery's fullbacks can be really offensive when they go higher up the pitch and with creative players like John McGinn, Moussa Diaby and Nicolo Zaniolo surrounding him, Watkins doesn't have to worry about anything aside from being the man to finish chances.
He finished those chances 15 times last season in the Premier League, whilst averaging a decent 0.43 non-penalty xG (npxG) per90 according to Opta. Perhaps the more interesting stat from last season was Watkins's improvement on his npxG per shot, going from 0.14 per shot in 21/22 to 0.18 in 22/23.
Simply put, Watkins is becoming better at generating quality chances.
Speaking of generating chances, one intriguing development from Watkins this season has been the rise in his creative output.
He is fourth for key-pass ending carries in the Premier League, and has already registered 16 key passes overall this season, having had 31 in 36 starts last season.
In Diaby, he now has a player who is on the same wavelength as him up front, which is creating some devastating counter-attacks for Emery and Villa.
What does he need to improve?
The one valid complaint about Watkins would be his streaky finishing, and that's the big area of improvement for him as a number nine.
He has admitted as much, speaking to the Times recently, "If I’m more clinical around the six-yard box I can get to elite level. But I think that’s the only thing stopping me at the minute."
Last season, Watkins had multiple stretches of fixtures where he failed to find the back of the net, blanking for nine games in a row in all competitions before scoring his second of the season.
Even this season, he needed five starts to get going before scoring his first against Chelsea.
It's worth pointing out that during this five-game spell, he racked up two assists, so he is still managing to remain involved in goal contributions, one way or another.
If he is to take that next step however, he has to produce more consistently, 0.48 npxG per90 puts him just above the average Top Five leagues striker this season, but to be truly elite, he has to try and hit figures that are above 0.55-0.60 per90 at least
That's when the big clubs will start to take notice.
Is he ready for a big move?
It certainly seems so, and at the age of 27, he is entering his prime years as a striker.
Villa recently tied him down to a long-term deal until 2028, so any prospective buyers will have to offer premium fees to prize him away from Emery's clutches.
The fact that his best performances have come for a Villa side that thrive off the ball means that there will be an inevitable adjustment period at a bigger club, where he will likely be tasked to do more on the ball, as he used to do under previous bosses at Villa and Thomas Frank at Brentford.
For now though, Watkins is in the perfect place to continue his development under Emery. The Spaniard has worked with wonders with number 9s in the past, and Watkins is the next big project.
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