After landing 6/4 and 23/20 winners in the Sky Bet League Two play-off semi-final first legs, Michael Beardmore returns with best bets for Mansfield's second-leg trip to Northampton.
Football betting tips: League Two play-offs
1pt Game to be decided in extra time at 7/1 (Bet365)
1pt Either team to win on penalties at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Oliver Hawkins to be shown a card at 8/1 (Bet365)
It’s all to play for in both Sky Bet League Two play-off semi-finals – with Northampton and Mansfield getting the second legs under way on Wednesday night, both bidding to book a trip to Wembley.
The Stags hold a slender 2-1 advantage from their home leg thanks to first-half goals from strike duo Rhys Oates and Jordan Bowery, but Northampton’s Ali Koiki pulled one back after the break.
That goal could be crucial, giving the Cobblers legitimate hope they can turn the tie around at Sixfields, especially when you factor in Mansfield’s mediocre away record this season.
Nonetheless, these two sides were separated by just three points across the campaign and there’s plenty of reason to expect this second leg will be tense and tight, perhaps going all the way.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Northampton 7/5 | Draw 9/4 | Mansfield 9/5
I mentioned in my second-leg preview of the League One tie between MK Dons and Wycombe that teams seldom win both legs of a play-off semi-final – it’s happened just twice in the past 39 ties across the Football League's three divisions.
When teams gain a first-leg advantage, they almost invariably try to defend that lead in the return encounter – of those 39 ties, 28 have seen one team lead after the first leg and the second-leg record of the side leading is W2 D13 L13.
As a consequence, Northampton are appealing at 7/5 generally to win in 90 minutes – they are strong at home and I was incredibly impressed with their second-half response in the first leg.
This was a team, remember, who had automatic promotion snatched from their grasp by a single goal after Bristol Rovers’ freak final-day 7-0 win over Scunthorpe – at two down to Mansfield, they could have wilted. They didn’t.
Mansfield, though, are an unpredictable bunch, and if backing against them it’s best to do with smaller stakes at value prices – Northampton to win by a single goal is 3/1, but if you expect a narrow Cobblers win, as I do, there’s a smarter way in.
That would be splitting stakes between THE GAME TO BE DECIDED IN EXTRA TIME at 7/1 with Bet365 and EITHER TEAM TO WIN ON PENALTIES at 13/2 with Sky Bet.
- CLICK HERE to back either team to win in extra time with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back either team to win on penalties with Sky Bet
If we exclude League Two’s bottom eight, Northampton have won 13 games this season against the division's more competitive sides. Nine of those have been by a one-goal margin – they edge teams out rather than blowing them away.
Mansfield, meanwhile, have lost six times in 2022 and five of those have been by the odd goal. A narrow Northampton win would be no surprise – making those relatively large prices on either side to win in extra time or penalties look very appealing.
A final tip I simply have to repeat from the first leg is OLIVER HAWKINS TO BE SHOWN A CARD – the Mansfield defender was 15/2 at home and he’s bizarrely even larger at 8/1 for the away return.
As mentioned in the profit-making first-leg preview, Hawkins tops the Stags’ booking charts with 13 cautions in 42 games this season, which is reason enough to jump at a price that should be half what it is.
But with Mansfield surely expected to come under plenty of defensive pressure in this game, I’m amazed those odds have drifted out slightly.
Hawkins made four second-half fouls on Saturday as Northampton pressed, somehow escaping a booking, as well as three successful tackles and four successful interceptions in the game. He gets stuck in but often comes unstuck with officials.
Northampton v Mansfield best bets and score prediction
- Game to be decided in extra time at 7/1 (Bet365)
- Either team to win on penalties at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
- Oliver Hawkins to be shown a card at 8/1 (Bet365)
Score prediction: Northampton 1-0 Mansfield (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct 1230 BST (17/05/22)
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