After picking out 14/5 and 28/1 (e/w) winners by backing goals with his betting tips on Monday night, Michael Beardmore fancies the opposite as injury-hit pair Newcastle and Aston Villa meet.
Football betting tips: Newcastle v Aston Villa
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 5/6 (General)
0.5pt No goalscorer at 10/1 (Bet365)
Two sides in danger of having their seasons derailed by injuries meet at St James’ Park on Friday night – but the hosts are in far more perilous waters than the visitors.
Aston Villa have picked up just four points from 12 during Jack Grealish’s absence, a run that has damaged their hopes of bringing European football to Villa Park for the first time in a decade.
To Newcastle, however, Villa’s worries are piffling – a run of just two wins, and 10 defeats, in their past 16 games, combined with Fulham’s resurgence – has dragged the Magpies headfirst into a relegation battle.
If that wasn’t bad enough, injuries have deprived them of arguably their three best attacking players – Callum Wilson, Allan Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron.
How can Newcastle avoid the drop?
Between them, those three have scored 16 of Newcastle’s 27 Premier League goals this season and the latter two are now out until April, with Wilson not due back much earlier.
It looks a surefire recipe for the drop but the Toon have showed some gumption amid the crisis, scrapping to draws against Villa’s West Midlands rivals Wolves and West Bromwich Albion in their past two games.
That’s exactly the sort of attitude they will need to survive – Newcastle are clearly not going to play their way out of trouble (that was an issue even before the injuries), they are going to need to grind their way to safety.
Against a full-strength Villa I would be tipping an away win, but Dean Smith’s side have lost their creative edge without Grealish, and the even money offered generally on a Villa victory is not hugely appealing given their recent loss at 10-man bottom club Sheffield United.
Instead, it’s best to turn to the goals market, betting specifically on the lack of them – Newcastle have scored two in their last four, Villa the same. Indeed, the Villains have netted just five in their past eight, indicating their issues pre-dated Grealish’s absence.
Newcastle will want to keep this tight – their route to safety this season is through 0-0s, 1-0s and 1-1s. They will know this is a massive opportunity to put some much-needed points on the board.
Given the recent form lines in front of goal, I was amazed several firms have UNDER 2.5 GOALS priced up at as big as 5/6. That’s a must-play. Paddy Power and Betfair have it correctly priced at around 13/20.
Under 1.5 goals is 5/2 with Bet365 if you want a slightly longer price.
Both sides drew 0-0 at the weekend and I really wouldn’t be surprised by a repeat on Friday night, given the toothlessness displayed by each in recent weeks.
It’s definitely worth a small play on NO GOALSCORER with Bet365 at 10/1 – that bet preferred to the 0-0 scoreline because we would profit in the scenario that game is decided 1-0 by an own goal.
Newcastle v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- Under 2.5 goals at 5/6 (General)
- No goalscorer at 10/1 (Bet365)
Score prediction: Newcastle 0-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 16:20 GMT on 09/03/21
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