Sporting Life
New Year's Best Bets Rohl

New Year's Day football tips, predictions and best bets: Sky Bet EFL Championship, League One, League Two

By Sporting Life
Football
Mon January 01, 2024 · 10M ago

Football betting tips: New Year's Day best bets

1.5pts BTTS in Sheff Wed vs Hull at 20/23 (Betfair)

Already advised:

1.5pts Reading to beat Exeter at 20/23 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt BTTS and over 2.5 goals in Derby vs Peterborough at 23/20 (Hills)

1pt Tranmere to beat Notts County at 11/5 (General)

1pt Jack Clarke 1+ assists in Sunderland vs Preston at 6/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Sheff Wed vs Hull

Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

Two in-form teams meet at Hillsborough, with Sheffield Wednesday (four wins in the last seven) hosting Hull (three wins in the last five).

The Owls are reinvigorated under Danny Röhl, playing a completely different brand of football with contrasting results. It's been very boom or bust of late but they have cut the gap to 21st place from 12 to six in the last seven matches.

Sheffield Wednesday manager Danny Rohl celebrates

They are creating more chances, but remain vulnerable at the back given the new high-pressing, all-action style, so BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE makes sense here against a top team who also have their own defensive frailties.

Liam Rosenior's Hull team have a negative away process, meaning they concede more chances than they create on average, so while they may be too strong on the day and beat Wednesday, it wouldn't be a surprise to see both teams oblige.

Odds correct at 1330 GMT (31/12/23)

Derby vs Peterborough

Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)

Famous last words... this should be a cracker between two of Sky Bet League One's in-form teams.

Derby showed all their determination and quality on Friday to fight back from 2-0 down and win at Oxford, meaning the Rams are now unbeaten since October and have taken 25 points from the last 27 available.

Peterborough's run of form is almost as impressive. They fought back from two goals down themselves to draw 2-2 at home to Barnsley and stretch it to eight games without defeat, and just one loss in their past 18 league fixtures.

The hosts look most likely to win, but with cracks on show of late for both sides and goals flying in at either end, OVER 2.5 GOALS AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE feels like a much smarter play, especially at the pick 'em price of 23/20.

Derby have scored three times in four of their last six matches and kept only one clean sheet in their past four games. Posh, long synonymous with goals under Darren Ferguson, would have delivered a winner with this selection in their last three league matches and four of their past six.

Odds correct at 1745 GMT (30/12/23)

Reading vs Exeter

Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

This is a six-pointer at the foot of Sky Bet League One, and it's READING who appeal to get the WIN at a price of 20/23.

Now, you may think that price looks a little short for a team struggling at the foot of the table, one who have won six times all season, but I think it's a touch too big for this contest.

Reading boss Ruben Selles

The Royals head into this game unbeaten in five, drawing four including games against top six sides Oxford and Peterborough, highlighting an up turn in form with some steady performances, and their home form has been solid all season (W5 D3 L4).

Exeter had a decent festive period with a home win and draw, but the Grecians are a completely different proposition away from home. They have lost seven of 11 and possess the worst underlying data in the entire division when travelling (0.94 xGF, 1.94 xGA per game).

With Reading posting top half metrics when playing host, this looks a good opportunity for the Royals to clamber out of the relegation zone.

Tranmere vs Notts County

Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

It's not very often you'd back against a team who has won their last two games 5-0 and 3-0, but that's what we are doing here, backing TRANMERE TO WIN against Notts County.

Nigel Adkins' men have been in excellent form of late, winning five and drawing one of their last seven Sky Bet League Two games, and all four of their last four at Prenton Park, results that have lifted them well clear of the relegation zone and to within just eight points of the top seven.

This bet comes alive thanks to Notts County's away struggles. Luke Williams' side rank 14th in terms of points won away from home this season and 13th for away xG process, averaging 1.27 xGF and 1.65 xGA per game - with that latter figure making Notts the ninth worst travelling defence.

They have lost their last four away games in the league and six in 12 overall, so given the form Tranmere are in, the price about a home win is simply too big and is worth chancing.

Sunderland vs Preston

Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)

Since following up an opening day draw with an unsustainable six straight wins, Preston have really dropped off. In fact were in not for a combination of having so many points on the board so early, and several teams at the bottom starting so badly, they would be in danger of getting dragged into a relegation battle.

From 17 points after seven games they have collected just 18 from the next 18. Their Boxing Day victory over Leeds was hugely fortunate, in no small part due to the idiocy of Illan Meslier, whose red mist left Leeds with 10 men from early in the second half. Even then, it still took a last-minute Liam Miller screamer to win it.

Sunderland have won at Hull and drawn at Rotherham since suffering a humbling 3-0 defeat at the Stadium of Light in Michael Beale's first game as head coach and Beale could hardly have wished for a better opportunity to kick-start the new era on home soil, but the Black Cats are far too short to back.

What we can more sure of, too, is that JACK CLARKE is likely to be at the centre of things, with the winger scoring in each of Sunderland's past two matches.

He looks a touch short to be worth getting onside as a goalscorer, but the 6/1 about him providing an ASSIST piques interest for an in-form player who led the Sky Bet Championship in assists last season, against a North End team who have kept just one clean sheet in their past 20 matches.

Odds correct at 1745 GMT (30/12/23)

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