We preview the latest round of Nations League action

Nations League betting preview & tips: Predictions and best bets for Scotland v Israel & Romania v Northern Ireland

By Mark Stinchcombe

Football

Fri September 04, 2020 · 4y ago

Mark Stinchcombe has our best bets for Friday's international Nations League games with Scotland and Northern Ireland in action.

Recommended Bets

2pts Eran Zahavi to score anytime at 5/2

1pt Both teams to score - No - in Romania v N.Ireland at 4/5

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Scotland v Israel

Match Odds: Home 5/6 | Draw 9/4 | Away 100/30

Scotland look a short price to me here at 5/6. When these two sides met in this competition at the end of 2018 Scotland were 4/5, yet this time around there’s no home crowd and no Steven Fletcher nor Oliver McBurnie.

The only recognized striker is uncapped Lyndon Dykes who shouldn’t strike fear into the Israelis with just 22 goals in 128 games in Scottish football.

However, I’m not exactly rushing to back Israel with them having lost five of their last seven games and 13 of their last 18 away from home, including their previous trip here in the UEFA Nations League where Scotland ran out 3-2 victors.

Scotland themselves aren’t without their own issues defensively having conceded 37 goals in their last 22 games spanning over the last three years, including two in both games against this opponent.

For me there is such an obvious standout bet here and that’s to back the prolific Eran Zahavi to score at a massive 5/2. Fresh off the back of his fifth and final season in the Chinese Super League where he scored a whopping 91 goals in just 106 games, he finally seems to have found his groove for the national team with 13 goals in his last 12 games including two hat-tricks, one against Austria and one against Latvia.

The goal return in China might suggest he’s a flat track bully but that certainly isn’t the case having scored against the likes of Lyon, Porto and Benfica in the Champions League too. The man is a predatory goalscorer.

He averages over a whopping five shots per-game in qualifying matches and invariably he finds the back of the net, including in his last trip here. To put it in perspective he’s scored just one goal fewer than Scotland’s entire squad. I can’t emphasise enough how good this bet is.

Best bet: Eran Zahavi to score anytime at 5/2

Romania v N.Ireland

Match Odds: Home 6/5 | Draw 21/10 | Away 5/4

Both of these sides arrive here having qualified for the Euro 2021 play-offs, but essentially only because they were able to beat sides they were expected to. Romania won all four games against the Faroe Islands and Malta but lost four of six against Sweden, Norway and Spain.

Northern Ireland won all four matches against Belarus and Estonia but lost three of four against the Netherlands and Germany. It was the same story in the previous Nations League campaign as Romania picked up three wins against Montenegro and Lithuania but couldn’t beat Serbia in either game.

Northern Ireland, meanwhile, lost all four against Bosnia and Austria. On that basis one could argue Romania are nicely priced at 6/5 but it’s concerning they were only able to beat Malta 1-0 and only managed a single goal in four home matches against Montenegro, Sweden, Norway and Serbia. There is also no Claudiu Keseru (13 goals in 37 caps) nor Constantin Budescu (five in 13) meaning George Puscas carries most of the burden. Again, though, all six of his goals have come against minnows.

For Northern Ireland this is new boss Ian Barraclough’s first game in charge, and given the number of defeats against play-off rivals Bosnia and fellow Group 1 side Austria, plus Norway being the other team in the group, one would expect him to first and foremost get the team back to being organised and difficult to beat.

A tight game is therefore envisaged anyway with under 2.5 goals priced at 4/7 so I like the angle of backing both sides not to score at 4/5. This bet would have landed in 31 of Northern Ireland’s last 40 games (78%) and 12 of Romania’s last 18 home games (67%).

Best Bet: Both teams to score - No 4 at 4/5

Odds correct as of 1533 BST on 3/9/20

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