Sporting Life
Nations League best bets

Nations League tips: Best bets and previews

By Joe Townsend
Football
Tue September 27, 2022 · 2y ago

The Nations League returns for the final round of group games and our tipsters pick out their best bets for Tuesday's action.

Football betting tips: Nations League

1.5pts Over 9 Corners in Portugal v Spain at 11/8 (bet365)

1pt John McGinn Anytime Goalscorer in Ukraine v Scotland at 9/2 (bet365)

1pt Aleksandar Mitrovic Anytime Goalscorer in Norway v Serbia at 7/5 (Betvictor)

1pt Northern Ireland Double Chance v Greece at 17/20 (Unibet)

*Read full match previews for all selections

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Portugal v Spain

Read Liam Kelly's (@LiamKellyTTA) full match preview

There is value in a market that could benefit from the nature of this match-up. At 11/8 with bet365, OVER 9 CORNERS makes appeal.

Spain's weakness at defending set pieces was on display against Switzerland, conceding twice from such situations, and it's a likely avenue to pursue for Portugal.

The visitors conceded six corner kicks to the Swiss, despite holding the majority of possession.

With undoubted quality out wide, Fernando Santos has to target a rather underwhelming set of Spain full-backs, which could easily lead to corners and chances for the hosts.

At the other end, it's easy to see Portugal funneling a Spain side that should dominate possession to the wide areas. Without a credible aerial threat, corners can be conceded without much worry.

Spain took nine corners last time out, so a 9.5 line for both teams combined can be breached here. All matches involving Portugal in this Nations League campaign have had 10+ corners, making the odds-against very tempting.

Score prediction: Portugal 2-1 Spain (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct 1200 BST (26/09/22)

Ukraine v Scotland

Read James Cantrill's (@JimmmythePunt) full match preview

Steve Clarke’s side head to Krakow knowing a point will see them earn promotion to the top tier of the Nations League.

With the Tartan Army failing to qualify for the World Cup, recording just one win in five games earlier this year, there were fears that they had lost their momentum.

However, over their last three games they have twice come from behind, picking up maximum points and bagging nine goals in the process.

This has put them in control of their own destiny as they head to Poland where they face a side they thumped 3-0 less than a week ago at Hampden Park.

Central to Scotland's good form and impressive Nations League campaign has been their skipper JOHN MCGINN.

The midfielder is being utilised in a more advanced role to what he plays at club level and is reaping the rewards in terms of defensive output.

He tops his nations charts for shots per game, averaging 3.8, hitting more than three in all bar one of his Nations League appearances and racking up six on two occasions.

With two goals and two assists, he has had a direct hand in 36% of Scotland’s goals, a feat no other squad member can beat, and is averaging 0.92 goals + assists per 90.

He has scored two in his last three appearances for his country, including one in the reverse of this game, which is why backing him TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals here at the prices available, the same angle is as short as 11/4 elsewhere.

Score prediction: Ukraine 0-1 Scotland (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct 1210 BST (26/09/22)

Norway v Serbia

Victory for Serbia and defeat for Norway in the last round of fixtures in Nations League B Group 4 has led to a thrilling winner-takes-all encounter when the sides clash at the Ullevaal Stadion.

Due to the hosts superior head-to-head record, anything other than a Serbian victory will see the Lions progress, however, the manner in which they surrendered the lead against Slovenia casts some uncertainty over their nerves.

In stark contrast, Dragan Stojkovic’s side will be brimming with confidence after their emphatic 4-1 victory over Sweden in Belgrade.

I tipped ALEXSANDAR MITROVIC to find the net in that fixture on Saturday and the striker obliged, scoring a hattrick.

Already clear as the Eagles all time leading goalscorer, this means that Fulham’s frontman is just a goal shy of the half century, boasting a goals per 90 average of 0.78.

It takes his Nations League tally to five in four appearances, scoring 13 in his last 12 competitive appearances which accounts for 45% of his nations total over that period.

Given what is at stake in Olso, Serbia will need their key personnel to be firing on all cylinders and given his form, I fancy Mitro to be amongst the goals which is why backing him TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals.

Score prediction: Norway 1-2 Serbia (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Odds correct 1910 BST (26/09/22)

Greece v Northern Ireland

NORTHERN IRELAND were booed off at Windsor Park following an abject first half display against Kosovo during which they were largely outplayed.

When the visitors took the lead through Vedat Muriqi on the stroke of the hour mark it was deserved and it looked as though Ian Baraclough’s side were sliding towards Group D, having failed to win any of their opening five games.

However, with ten minutes to play, the Green and White Army snapped into life. Gavin Whyte equalised with eight minutes of normal time remaining. The goal scorer then turned provider as Wigan’s Josh Magennis found the net to win it in injury time.

Their first Nations League win of the campaign moved them above Cyprus on goal difference, lifting them off of the foot of the table and giving them a chance of survival as they must match or better the Cyprus result in Kosovo.

Crucially though for Northern Ireland, they face Greece, a side that have already topped the group meaning Gus Poyet's men have little to play for. Therefore, siding with the visitors DOUBLE CHANCE, who must get a result, looks the play.

Score prediction: Greece 0-1 Northern Ireland (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct 1910 BST (26/09/22)

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