Saturday's Nations League action sees Spain host Switzerland and Germany take on Ukraine in Group A4. Joe Townsend has best bets for each game.
Recommended bets
2pts Germany to beat Ukraine and over 2.5 total goals at 19/20
1pt Germany (-2 handicap) to beat Ukraine at 16/5
1pt Spain win to nil v Switzerland at 6/5
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Spain v Switzerland
- 7.45pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 4/11 | Draw 10/3 | Away 7/1
Somehow Spain survived to keep a clean sheet against Portugal in midweek, both Cristiano Ronaldo and Renato Sanches rattled the underside of the crossbar, but survive they did to continue building an impressive body of work defensively.
There has been quite a change since the nadir of conceding three times in successive matches against England and Croatia two years ago, performances that saw them tumble out of the inaugural Nations League at the group stage.
After their goal was breached six times in 180 minutes in October 2018, fast forward two years and the same number of goals have been conceded in the 14 subsequent fixtures. While the eight clean sheets might not be anything exceptional, no team managing to score more than a single goal past them is pretty impressive.
Luis Enrique's side now face Switzerland, who putting it mildly do not score many. In their past 11 fixtures they have only scored more than one goal on three occasions and two of those were against Gibraltar. The outlier is explainable to do, as their 2-0 win over 10-man Republic of Ireland was secured by a 93rd-minute own goal.
Like I said, Switzerland do not score many. They do often get one goal though, only failing to do so twice in that run of matches. But away from home advantage, against what you could reasonably consider to be top-tier opponents, it's just two goals in six games and one from open play.
With Spain looking for a sixth straight home clean sheet, a Spanish win to nil at 6/5 has to be the bet.
Score prediction: Spain 2-0 Switzerland (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Spain win to nil v Switzerland at 6/5
Ukraine v Germany
- 7.45pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 7/2 | Draw 19/5 | Away 3/10
I didn't have to delve too deeply to get started here, because what immediately caught my eye was the weighty odds-on price for a Germany win. Ukraine are an odd team, but not one I would usually feel comfortable opposing at 3/10. But these are unusual times, and that price is easily explainable.
Ukraine's squad has been decimated by Covid-19 withdrawals, to the extent that 45-year-old assistant coach Oleksandr Shovkovskiy was named on the bench as a reserve goalkeeper for their friendly with France on Wednesday.
They were thrashed 7-1 - the biggest defeat in the country's history.
And things really do not get any easier for Ukraine manager Andriy Shevchenko and his side, with the former Chelsea and AC Milan striker sure to witness the end of their seven-game winning streak in competitive home games when they host Germany.
A quick glance at the world rankings and you almost have to double take, or at the very least scroll further than you'd expect to need to in an effort to find Joachim Low's team. It's jarring to see Germany down in 14th.
They're certainly a team in transition, exemplified by their to-and-fro 3-3 friendly with Turkey in midweek - a third successive draw - but they certainly know how to find the net, scoring 37 times in their last 12 fixtures.
Germany on the -2 goal handicap at 13/5 feels like a smart play given the circumstances, and the fact Shevchenko's men were thrashed 4-0 by Spain in their last competitive match even before being hit by a spate of withdrawals.
If Ukraine come out of this match having only lost 3-0 then they will probably be pretty pleased.
Low's team are far from defensively sound, failing to keep a clean sheet in their last four matches, but I think they will do on Saturday night. That recent leakiness means I'm not backing them to do so, and going heavy on the over goals instead.
Germany to win and over 2.5 total goals is unappealing with most bookmakers, but you can get a price of shade under evens. Over 3.5 offers sizeable 23/10 returns, but I would rather lay down a bigger stake and take the 19/20 available.
Score prediction: Ukraine 0-3 Germany (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bets:
Odds correct at 1530 BST (10/10/20)
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