Morgan Rogers wasn’t well known outside of his own club until the summer. Then things changed, and fast.
Boffins crunched the numbers, however, and the Aston Villa star quickly became a top choice for shrewd Fantasy Premier League managers ahead of the 2024/25 season.
This surge in popularity followed his late-season breakout last term, where he started seven of his eight appearances in the final 13 games, racking up three goals and an assist, a tally just shy of Ollie Watkins' own record.
Thereafter, Rogers continued to impress during Villa's summer friendlies, where he was utilised by Unai Emery as a second striker instead of his usual left-wing role, notching three goals and an assist. With his relatively low price tag, FPL players were eager to add him.
There was an idea that he could be this campaign’s Cole Palmer, a young English attacker who unexpectedly rose to prominence last season, scoring a plethora of goals for fun seemingly out of nowhere.
But, three months into the new campaign, have the FPL players been vindicated? The answer is: slightly.
Morgan Rogers Transfer Value - how much is he worth?
According to our player valuation model, Rogers has a current Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) of €19.2million.
Villa bought the 22-year-old from Middlesbrough in the January window of 2024 for €9.4m, with the Championship club making a substantial profit on the €1.2m they paid Manchester City just six months prior.
At this time, Rogers was worth around €5m. That only rose by €2m until this July, but since then it has shot up. Since the start of this season, the attacker has added a remarkable €10m to his ETV. If this trajectory continues, he could easily be worth €40m or more by the end of the season.
What does Morgan Rogers add to Aston Villa?
At his young age, Rogers still has much potential to develop. Even still, in some moments, he has even drawn comparisons to ‘the real Ronaldo’. Like the Brazilian legend, he combines a large, stocky build with refined dribbling skills. His knack for finding space and confidently taking control of the ball and roaming into dangerous areas ranks among the best in the Premier League.
He excels at carrying the ball once he crosses the halfway line, combining delicate, nimble footwork with unrelenting strength, using his arching broad shoulder to breeze through.
Rogers spoke about how this style of pushing defenders back is something Emery has asked him to do regularly.
After Villa’s win in the Champions League against Bayern Munich, he said: “Luckily I've found a manager who trusted and believed in me. When I came here he kind of took me under his wing and tried to improve me. I'm only getting better and better and it's thanks to him.
"I was maybe a little bit in my shell when I first came, just trying to fit in, but he tells me to take touches on the ball, to drive, to commit. Most of the time he's telling me off for passing too early. He wants me to show what I'm about, so he just gives me confidence and belief in my abilities to go and show what I can do. I'm not always going to get it right, but I have a manager who is trusting me and behind me."
Indeed, Rogers’ runs are fast and precise, with sharp changes in direction. His first touch is impressive; he often receives the ball and produces the perfect first touch which allows him to shift forward and evade his marker. His movement works well with his strike partner Watkins.
When Watkins drops deeper, Rogers can then stretch the defensive line to provide channels of space for his team-mate. Establishing a regular place for the pair in the Three Lions setup would be challenging but it’s certainly something worth considering for incoming head coach Thomas Tuchel, should the likes of Harry Kane and Palmer be out injured.
Defenders often find themselves back pedalling as Rogers takes speculative shots from distance. Though he has only scored three times for Villa this season, his aggressive style and high volume of shooting suggest more goals are on the horizon. But it’s a skill that needs to be worked on.
He has three goals and two assists from 11 matches, averaging a goal every 0.3 games. Those figures are not for the lack of effort - Rogers takes two shots per game on average, but his xG on target (xGOT) is only 0.26.
This is likely due to the distance of his attempts: of his 20 shots this season, seven have come from outside the 18-yard box. He is brilliant at carrying, so it’s a wonder why Rogers does not make more box entries and unleash strikes closer to goal. It’s something that will perhaps come with confidence.
For now, Rogers can enjoy his recent England call-up.
We expect that much more will come in the future.
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