Carabao Cup final: Match preview and betting tips for Aston Villa v Manchester City
The Carabao Cup final sees Manchester City defend their title against Aston Villa. Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Bernardo Silva to be shown a card at 17/2
1pt Kortney Hause to have 2+ Tackles at 11/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Aston Villa v Manchester City
- 1630 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Main Event
The bad news for the neutral is that we're likely to see a very one-sided final as Manchester City take on Aston Villa.
Pep Guardiola's side have won this competition for the past two seasons and find themselves as huge 1/14 favourites to lift the trophy once again - even going as short as 1/33 in some places.
City comfortably beat Villa 6-1 when the two sides met at Villa Park in mid-January and we're in danger of seeing a similar scoreline here. City are used to easing past teams in major finals, just ask Watford who were hammered 6-0 in the FA Cup final back in May.
Is there any hope for Villa here? Of course, it's not completely impossible that they lift the trophy around 6:30pm but it's a big ask.
One positive for their chances is the fact that they have recent Wembley experience. Their two consecutive Sky Bet Championship play-off final appearances equips them well for walking out in front of a packed national stadium.
We can make an argument that some teams are overwhelmed by the big occasion but Villa shouldn't fall into that category. They know the pitch well by this point; they won't even need to ask the stewards for directions to the changing rooms.
The other positive is that Villa could draw inspiration from Chelsea last season. Maurizio Sarri's side were hammered 6-0 by City before taking them to penalties in the Carabao Cup final shortly after.
They were unsuccessful on that occasion but a penalty shootout could have gone either way - especially considering City's recent fortunes from the penalty spot.
However, Villa should be on the end of another convincing defeat by Guardiola's men here. It's reflected in the price, which is why you have to explore the other markets to find the value.
The first involves the card markets. Even though City cruised to an easy victory in their last meeting with Villa, the game still saw a total of three yellow cards.
Lee Mason is the official for this one and the last game he covered involving either of these two sides was City's 1-0 away victory over Sheffield United.
That game saw a total of seven yellow cards, a season high for Mason, with three of those going to the the visitors. There is value in the cards market for this one, particularly when it comes to individual players to be carded.
The price that immediately jumped off the page was the 17/2 available on Bernardo Silva to go into the referee's book. The City forward has featured in every Carabao Cup game this season and should get another start at Wembley.
The reason behind this decision is the fact that he has already been shown a total of six yellow cards this season. Those have come when he has been playing a variety of positions too, giving some safety to the selection if Guardiola decides to mix things up once again.
The tactical fouls element also plays a part. Villa will likely be looking to hit City on the break and catch them out with numbers at the other end of the pitch, forcing the defending champions into committing the fouls that breakdown those attacks.
The 17/2 price looks too generous considering the player's track record this season.
On the topic of tackles, the second best bet in this game can be found in the tackles statistics market.
In particular, backing Kortney Hause to have two or more successful tackles in 90 minutes at a price of 11/4 looks too appealing to turn down.
The defender has been a regular in the Villa back line since being brought into the side in mid-December. Hause has made up a three-man central defence with two others from Mings, Engels and Konsa.
The reason it's worth taking two or more in this contest is the numbers he has posted since his involvement in the team. Two or more tackles has been hit in 36% of his Premier League games during the 2019/20 campaign.
The home defeat to Manchester City in January saw a huge total of five successful tackles though. Given how a similar game is expected here, we could predict similar tackling numbers.
The biggest price on offer with Sky Bet is the 17/2 available on three or more tackles. However, the 11/4 on 2+ is good enough value to side with the lower number.
The outright prices speak for themselves when it comes to a winner on the day. It's difficult to argue against the side who are heavy odds-on.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Bernardo Silva to be shown a card at 17/2
Best bet: Kortney Hause to have 2+ Tackles at 11/4
Opta facts
- This will be the 60th League Cup final and the 57th different match-up of teams in the final – Aston Villa and Manchester City have met four times previously in the competition, with Villa winning three times and City once.
- Aston Villa are competing in their ninth League Cup final, with only Liverpool playing in more (12) - they have won the trophy five times, most recently in 1996 against Leeds United.
- Manchester City have won the League Cup six times, a tally surpassed only by Liverpool (eight). City have won the trophy in four of the last six seasons, including each of the last two; the only team to win it three years in a row are Liverpool, who won it in four consecutive years between 1981 and 1984.
- Man City have won seven of their last eight matches against Aston Villa in all competitions (D1), scoring 26 goals and conceding just three across those games.
- This will be the first ever meeting between Aston Villa and Man City at Wembley and only their second ever at a neutral venue, with Man City winning 6-1 at Leeds Road in Huddersfield in the 1933-34 FA Cup semi-final.
- Only one of the last 10 teams to lose the second leg of their League Cup semi-final but progress to the final have gone on to win the trophy, with Manchester United doing so in 2016-17 after losing against Hull City in their semi-final second leg before beating Southampton in the final.
- Manchester City have progressed or won the final of each of their last 18 domestic English cup ties (FA/League Cup), the longest run since Chelsea between October 2006 and February 2008 (also 18 in a row), whose run was ended by a League Cup final defeat against Spurs.
- Since Brian Little won the League Cup in 1996 with Aston Villa, an English manager has picked up the trophy in just one of the last 23 seasons, with Steve McClaren winning it with Middlesbrough in 2004.
- Aston Villa are the fourth newly-promoted Premier League side to reach a League Cup, and the first since Wigan Athletic in 2005-06, who lost 4-0 to Man Utd. The other two won the trophy – Leicester City in 1996-97 and Blackburn Rovers in 2001-02.
- Man City striker Sergio Agüero has scored nine goals in his last five starts against Aston Villa, all in the Premier League, including a hat-trick in a 6-1 win in January. The Argentine has scored five and assisted two more in nine appearances at Wembley for City, though he hasn’t scored or assisted in his last two games there.
- Aston Villa have had 12 different scorers (excluding own goals) in the League Cup this season, four more than any other side and five more than Man City. The last team to have more in a campaign was Bristol City in 2017-18 (14).
- Manchester City forward Raheem Sterling has been directly involved in nine goals in his last five appearances at Wembley for club and country, scoring seven goals and assisting two more.
- Aston Villa have scored 19 League Cup goals this season, with Manchester City the last team to score 20 in a season back in 2013-14 (22). The Villans last scored more in a campaign during 1985-86, scoring 25 times.
- This will be Man City manager Pep Guardiola 25th final as a top-flight manager, winning 20 of the previous 24, including all five with City (two Community Shields, two League Cups, one FA Cup). Four of his previous seven finals have gone to penalty shootouts (W3 L1).
- Aston Villa manager Dean Smith has managed in two previous Wembley finals, losing the Football League Trophy final in 2014-15 with Walsall against Bristol City but winning 2-1 in last season’s Championship play-off final with Villa against Derby.
IMPORTANT: Sporting Life podcasts have new homes across the below platforms
Please make sure you subscribe to ensure you don't miss future episodes of your favourite show
Odds correct at 1130 GMT (28/02/20)