Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to a crunch clash between Italy and Sweden on Monday night which will see one of them fail to make the World Cup finals.
So much at stake as the current Italy side looks to avoid the ignominy of not making a World Cup finals for the first time in 60 years, but we all know how this one pans out, don’t we?
Gianluigi Buffon, the talismanic, controversial and ridiculously gifted Italian goalkeeper currently playing in his final season, makes a string of inspiring saves which help the Azzurri oveturn their narrow first-leg, play-off deficit with Sweden, before getting themselves together to mount a highly creditable run to the latter stages in Russia next summer.
There would be a soothing symmetry to the admirers of narrative, 20 years on from Italy’s last and only previous World Cup play-off encounter, in which a youthful Buffon made his debut for the national side as a first-half sub in place of Gianluca Pagliuca.
Italy’s opponents that night were Russia and it was a 1-0 triumph in the second leg that saw them through, ultimately going on to lose out to hosts France in the quarter-finals.
But times have changed and times are hard for current head coach Gian Piero Ventura, who has struggled to follow in the footprints of Antonio Conte, who through masterful tactics and intense man-management was somehow able to paper over the cracks of an essentially limited pool of playing talent at his disposal, especially in the attacking ranks.
Finishing second in the group behind Spain was no disgrace – it was to be expected – but there were some shocking performances along the way and, most worryingly ahead of Monday night’s showdown in Milan is that their two most recent efforts on home soil have resulted in a pretty tepid 1-0 win over Israel, and a 1-1 draw with lowly Macedonia.
The Italians can boast a 1-0 defeat of Albania as their only win in four, and Ventura could be forgiven for seriously feeling the heat after midfield linchpin Marco Verratti picked up a suspension with a reckless yellow card in Sweden on Friday – something the manager had warned against in his pre-match press conference.
One thing in favour is that Simeone Zaza looks like being available again, and he’ll most likely be needed to play a major role, but that central midfield berth is up for grabs and must be of some concern to anyone considering unloading on Italy as 8/15 favourites to win on the night.
Roberto Gagliardini could get the nod given his San Siro experience for Inter, though Jorginho may be pushing for a debut in light of his excellent work for high-flying Napoli in Serie A.
Either way it’s a genuine 10/11 the pair scenario in terms of qualification and in spite of the implications the result may have on Buffon’s legacy, I just don’t see Italy suddenly producing something extraordinary and a bet on Sweden in the double chance market looks the way to go.
We backed them as 5/2 underdogs in the reverse and they were worthy winners, though admittedly the goal did fly in via a deflection and Italy were a shade unfortunate when hitting the post in the second half in Stockholm.
It was the Swedes who started the better last week and anything like a similar first 20 minutes or so from the impressive RB Leipzig man Emil Forsberg could be enough to silence an expectant home crowd.
If things don’t go Italy’s way initially it’s not hard to see the hosts coming under fire from the fans and at 13/8 I'm happy to cover Sweden or the draw, for all it won’t please those desperately wishing to see a truly great player of his generation gracing a World Cup finals for the fifth time in a glittering career.
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Posted at 1655 GMT on 12/11/17.