Milan vs Liverpool betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Trent Alexander-Arnold to commit 1+ foul at 5/6 (General)
BuildABet @ 12/1
- Both teams to score
- Trent Alexander-Arnold to commit 1+ foul
- Virgil van Dijk to commit 1+ foul
- Mohamed Salah to score anytime
- Milan 20+ booking points
It was going too well for Arne Slot at Liverpool.
Three wins from three, all without conceding a goal, had Reds fans dreaming of an unlikely title charge. Defeat at home to Nottingham Forest was a reality check.
They now must pick themselves up ahead of a trip to the San Siro in the new look Champions League - more details of the changes can be found here - where they will be welcomed by a very dangerous opponent.
Milan haven't got off to the best of starts under their new manager Paulo Fonseca (W1 D2 L1) but they have some exciting attacking players at their disposal and play in a very attack-minded manner under the former Roma and Lille boss.
What are the best bets?
One of those exciting players is Rafael Leão .
The Portuguese winger really is a joy to watch, with his direct dribbling and incredible speed making him a nightmare for every full-back he faces.
In this game, he will be directly up against TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD, who looks overpriced at 5/6 TO COMMIT 1+ FOUL here.
Trent isn't the most foul-heavy full-back, which somewhat explains the price, but I don't think the price fully reflects the match-up he finds himself in on Tuesday.
Leão is one of the best 1v1 dribblers in Europe, shown by the fact that across the last two editions of the UEFA Champions League, only Vinícius Júnior (84) and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (64) have completed more dribbles than him.
Liverpool's right-back is in for a long night trying to contain Leão, a player who drew 2.44 fouls per 90 in this competition last season.
He played just 63 minutes at home last weekend and was fouled twice, and was fouled the same amount in the only other time he played at the San Siro this season.
Not only does Trent have to deal with Leão head-to-head, he also has to deal with the overlapping Theo Hernández who draws plenty of fouls. He's on 1.57 per 90 so far this season, with 1.89 at Euro 2024, 1.50 in the UCL last term and a whopping 2.46 in the 23/24 Serie A campaign.
Add in the fact that Alexander-Arnold committed a foul after just 11 minutes against Forest last time out, and the 5/6 looks large given the opponents he'll face.
That price is available with all of Sky Bet, Betfair and Paddy Power, but definitely take the bet with the latter.
Paddy Power offer the super sub rule in this market, which means that if Trent gets subbed off without making a foul our bet lives on through his replacement (likely Conor Bradley).
Given Alexander-Arnold has been subbed off in three of his four games this season, the super sub could just save the day for the bet, just like it would have in Liverpool's victory over Manchester United.
Team news
Milan will be without Ismael Bennacer, Alessandro Florenzi and Marco Sportiello for this Champions League opener, while defender Malick Thiaw is a doubt. Davide Calabria could be fit to feature though.
It seems likely that Fonseca will field the same XI which beat Venezia 4-0 at the weekend, meaning Tammy Abraham will lead the line and be supported by former Chelsea duo Christian Pulisic and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, as well as Rafael Leão.
As for Liverpool, new signing Federico Chiesa's fitness continues to be carefully managed, though a debut for the Italian has not been ruled out. The Reds will definitely be without Harvey Elliott.
Slot could make changes in forward areas, with Cody Gakpo and Darwin Nunez pushing for starts, with the latter perhaps coming in for Diogo Jota.
Predicted line-ups
Milan: Maignan; Emerson Royal, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Hernandez; Reijnders, Fofana, Loftus-Cheek; Pulisic, Abraham, Leao.
Liverpool: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Szoboszlai, Gakpo; Nunez.
Match facts
- This will be the fifth meeting between Milan and Liverpool in European competition, with half of their previous clashes coming in the UEFA Champions League final (2/4) – 2004-05 (won by Liverpool on penalties) and 2005-06 (won 2-1 by Milan).
- Liverpool have won all three of their UEFA Champions League games at the Giuseppe Meazza stadium, winning 1-0 in 2008 and 2-0 in 2022 against Internazionale, and 2-1 against Milan in 2021. The Reds are the only team to play there more than once as a visiting side in the competition while maintaining a 100% record.
- Liverpool have won four of their last five away games against Italian sides in European competition (L1), with all five of those coming since 2020. Prior to this, the Reds had only won three of their first 14 such matches away to Italian opposition (D3 L8).
- Liverpool manager Arne Slot has lost all three of his away games in the UEFA Champions League, with each of those coming in the group stage with Feyenoord last season (2-3 v Atlético Madrid, 0-1 v Lazio and 1-2 v Celtic). Despite that, Slot’s Feyenoord had the second-best shot differential away from home in last season’s group stage (+19 – 48 for, 29 against), while only Man City (24) faced fewer shots on the road.
- Mohamed Salah has scored 41 goals for Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League; the most ever by a player for an English club in the competition. Since his first season at the club in 2017-18, only Robert Lewandowski (54) and Kylian Mbappé (42) have outscored Salah (41) in the UEFA Champions League.
- Across the last two editions of the UEFA Champions League (2022-23 and 2023-24), only Vinícius Júnior (84) and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (64) have completed more dribbles than Milan’s Rafael Leão (57).
- Trent Alexander-Arnold has assisted 10 goals for Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League (52 games); already the second-most ever by an English defender, only behind Ashley Cole (12 assists in 108 games).
Odds correct at 1215 BST (16/09/24)
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