Sky Bet Championship betting tips: Middlesbrough v Watford best bets and preview
After landing a 16/1 goalscorer tip on Saturday, Tom Carnduff is searching for more value and has two best bets for Middlesbrough v Watford.
Football betting tips: Middlesbrough v Watford
1pt Ken Sema to score anytime at 6/1 (Unibet)
1pt Watford (-1 handicap) to beat Middlesbrough at 4/1 (General)
At one stage this season, both of these teams would have been hopeful that their campaign would end in promotion. However, it's Watford who are now in a very strong position for an immediate return to the Premier League; Middlesbrough are left drifting further away from the play-offs.
Neil Warnock's side are now five points away from Reading in sixth while the Hornets are nine points clear of Brentford in third with just seven games remaining. They are on a six-game winning streak too, the odds-against price on another victory here looks attractive given the contrasting recent form.
Middlesbrough's three defeats in their last five has contributed to their move away from the top-six. We can expect another L in that column before the rest of the day's action gets underway.
Value in the goalscorer market
Watford's outright price is an attractive option, even with any early kick-off superstitions, but a look through the goalscorer market saw one price jump out instantly. That was the 6/1 available on KEN SEMA to score anytime in this game - odds that look too big given a recent switch.
Sema can be a bit of a utility man for the Hornets but a tactical tweak has seen him line up in a more advanced position, one that this price doesn't seem to take into account.
Rather than playing as a left midfielder, or a left-back at times, Sema is now playing as either a winger or wide attacking midfielder. Since the switch, his numbers in front of goal have increased significantly.
Of course, there is some fluidity about it but the current starting XI does have Sema in a more advanced role. It's also reflected in shots totals, which have jumped up as Watford have hit real form at the crucial stage of the season.
Looking at the 1-0 victory over Barnsley backwards, a period of 20 games where Sema was largely in a more traditional wide midfield role or in the defence, he was averaging 0.25 shots per game. Looking at his last 11 starts, where he's been more advanced, the shot average has jumped up to 1.18 per game.
He's also scored five goals across this period too. The odds on offer seem to take the season as a whole into account rather than a recent period of it, which makes the 6/1 best price, and even the 7/2 general price elsewhere, an attractive play in this contest.
Watford can continue promotion charge
Sema should be involved for the Hornets after starting on the bench in Friday's victory over Sheffield Wednesday, but it's also worth backing the visitors to secure victory here.
The odds-against price on a win is decent enough and the 6/5 should definitely be considered. However, given the form they are in, it's worth taking the 4/1 on WATFORD TO WIN ON THE -1 HANDICAP. They have hit this numerous times during the winning run.
Three of Watford's last six victories have all been by a two-goal or greater margin while Middlesbrough were beaten 3-1 by Bournemouth last time out - that was the fourth time they have lost by two goals or more in their last 14 games.
It's also worth noting that their last three defeats at home have all been by two goals or more. Two of their five defeats to teams above them have also hit this criteria.
Middlesbrough v Watford best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Ken Sema to score anytime at 6/1 (Unibet)
- 1pt Watford (-1 handicap) to beat Middlesbrough at 4/1 (General)
Score prediction: Middlesbrough 0-2 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1230 BST (04/04/21)
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