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mark o'haire best bets

Mark O'Haire's football betting tips, best bets and nap: Over and out

By Mark O'Haire
Football
Sun January 28, 2024 · 10M ago
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Football betting tips: Weekend

3pts Venezia vs Ternana - Over 2.5 Goals at 5/6 (Sky Bet)

2.5pts Morton to win + Over 1.5 Goals vs Arbroath at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

2.5pts Burgos to win (draw no bet) vs Albacete at 5/6 (Sky Bet)

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Burgos vs Albacete

Burgos are undervalued for Sunday’s meeting with Albacete in the Segunda – BURGOS can be backed at 5/6 in the DRAW NO BET market, a very appealing opportunity when you consider the overwhelming evidence in the home side’s favour.

Burgos sit 11th in the Segunda standings but only three points off the play-offs. The Blanquinegros have built their encouraging campaign upon a rock-solid home record (W11-D3-L0) – no Spanish second-tier side can better Burgos’ home return with Bolo’s boys beating five of the top-10 at the Estadio Municipal El Plantio and keeping 7/11 clean sheets.

The underlying metrics also point to Burgos’ eye-catching home efforts. The Blanquinegros are in the top-five for Expected Points (xP) as hosts, with their home Expected Goals (xG) process second in Segunda. When welcoming visitors to the Municipal El Plantio, Bolo’s troops are allowing a measly two shots on-target per-game on average.

Albacete arrive eight points shy of Burgos in 16th and just two points above the drop-zone. The guests have lost four of their last six and have been beaten in seven of 11 away days (a record that includes W0-D1-L7 in trips to teams in the top-14). The Queso Mecanico have managed four clean sheets all season and leak 2.00 goals per-game on average away.

Venezia vs Ternana

Saturday afternoon’s Serie B showdown between promotion-chasing Venezia and relegation-threatened Ternana promises plenty and I’m eager to support OVER 2.5 GOALS.

Venezia and Ternana are the two leading protagonists for successful Over 2.5 Goals wagers in Italy’s second-tier with the two teams also strong operators in both the Over 3.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score columns. The pair have also produced plenty of entertainment in their respective home/away encounters to suggest a goal-laden treat could be on the cards.

At their picturesque Pier Luigi Penzo Stadium base, Venezia have seen the Overs line cash in nine of 11 outings, six of which featured four goals or more with both teams obliging on nine occasions. Meanwhile, Ternana’s road trips have returned Over 2.5 Goals winners in 9/10, BTTS landing with the same strong hit-rate, whilst six of those 10 tussles saw 4+ goals.

Dig into the duos data and again a high-scoring clash has to be considered – Venezia’s home matches are averaging 3.05 Expected Goals (xG) with Ternana’s away days delivering a chunky 3.25 xG average per-game, whilst their recent form also points to goals galore.

Across the couples combined past eight encounters, Over 2.5 Goals has banked in 13/16 (81%) with 11 (69%) of those fixtures also landing for Over 3.5 Goals backers.

Greenock Morton vs Arbroath

Mid-table Morton are making moves to be considered in the Scottish Championship promotion picture. Despite sitting a massive 18-points shy of the top-two, the Greenock gang command respect for their recent run (W5-D3-L0), which includes winning at league-leading Dundee United, and picking up points against high-flying Airdrie and Partick.

The Ton have shipped only five goals during that eight-game unbeaten streak and Dougie Imrie’s charges have been continuously producing impressive metrics. Morton rank second in the second-tier for both shot and shots on-target ratio across the whole campaign, as well as home matches. It’s a similar story over the most recent eight-game sample split.

I’m therefore eager to support MORTON TO WIN AND OVER 1.5 GOALS when they welcome beleaguered Arbroath to Cappielow Park.

The visitors have sunk to the bottom of the standings having lost 10 of their last 14 league dates, failing to score in four and conceding multiple goals in four of their most recent five Championship clashes.

The Red Lichties are conceding 2.20 goals per-game on average on their travels with the Angus outfit also enduring a miserable injury crisis ahead of their trip to Renfrewshire. Arbroath are short of bodies in defensive areas and were unable to fill their substitutes bench during a dour 2-0 midweek defeat at bottom-half Ayr.

Odds correct at 1200 GMT (25/12/23)

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