Free betting tips and match preview: Champions League - Atalanta v PSG
The first game of the new Champions League format sees Atalanta take on PSG. Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Atalanta to have 17+ total shots at 6/4
1pt Mario Pasalic to score anytime at 7/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Atalanta v PSG (20:00 BST, BT Sport)
The new knockout format for the Champions League begins on Wednesday with Atalanta taking on PSG in the first game to be played in one night as opposed to across two legs.
All eyes and expectations will be on this PSG side. In similar fashion to Manchester City, the focus point always falls back on their performances in Europe's top club competition with numerous league titles under their belt.
PSG are available at even money to secure victory in 90 minutes with their qualification odds at an expected odds-on 4/7. Atalanta, even as the outsiders, will pose a significant threat given their showings in Serie A.
They maintained their 3rd place finish in Italy's top division but finished nine points better off this time around - the eleven-point gap to Juventus at the top was closed to five.
The big pre-match news regarding selection is that Kylian Mbappe could make a surprise return from injury. He was expected to miss this game following an injury picked up in the Coupe de France final but reports say that he has been training in recent days.
This has all the potential to be a high-scoring match. Atalanta's attacking style coming up against a PSG side with talent in every position. We perhaps won't hit the 8-4 aggregate score Atalanta enjoyed against Valencia in the last round, but the 4/9 price on both teams to score is expected to come in.
With the likes of Neymar, Mauro Icardi and Duvan Zapata all relatively short prices to score, the value could be in backing Atalanta's Mario Pasalic to net anytime at a price of 7/2.
The attacking midfielder has hit double figures for goals in all competitions this season and scored a hat-trick in their 6-2 victory over Brescia last month. He has two on his Champions League tally - one of which came in their draw with Manchester City.
Pasalic posted at least one shot in each of his eight Champions League appearances this season. There is also a chance he could be involved in an attacking three as he was last time out against Inter. Pasalic's attacking threat is clear and the 7/2 price available with multiple bookmakers is worth consideration given the contest.
A team-based bet worth backing based on the season averages is the 6/4 available with Sky Bet on Atalanta having 17 or more total shots.
The average of 18.7 per 90 minutes was the highest in Serie A this season and no team came close to matching the 98 goals they scored over 38 games (Inter came second in this category with 81).
They hit the tally of 17 in Champions League contests against Dinamo Zagreb and Shakhtar Donetsk. It must be acknowledged that their average total is lower in Europe this season but they have done it on more than one occasion.
This is a bet that always depends on the type of game but it's important to note that these are total shots, not just those on target.
That type of game should hopefully be a fantastic one for the neutral to watch and when it comes to the outright market, one in which more than 90 minutes will be required.
Score prediction: Atalanta 2-2 PSG (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Atalanta to have 17+ total shots at 6/4
Best bet: Mario Pasalic to score anytime at 7/2
Opta facts
- The 2019/20 edition will see the latest ending of a UEFA Champions League/European Cup campaign in history. Previously, the latest knockout game in the competition was the first final, played on 13th June 1956 between Real Madrid and Reims.
- This will be the first competitive game between Atalanta and Paris SG. Atalanta’s only previous encounter with a French club in European competition was against Lyon in the 2017/18 UEFA Europa League group stages – the Bergamo side drew 1-1 in France and won 1-0 at home.
- Paris SG have never won a single game against Italian opposition in the UEFA Champions League (D4 L2). They’ve also never kept a clean sheet in those six matches.
- Despite losing their opening three games this season, Atalanta are the first UEFA Champions League debutants to reach the quarter-finals of the competition since Leicester City in 2016/17 and the first Italian side to do so since Lazio in the 1999/00 campaign.
- Paris SG are in the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League for the first time since 2015/16. They haven’t reached the final four of the competition since 1994/95 – that season, they were knocked out by AC Milan (0-3 agg.), the only previous time they have faced Italian opposition in the knockout stages of the competition.
- Paris SG have played two competitive games in the last five months (Coupe de France and Coupe de la Ligue finals on 24th and 31st July respectively) whilst Atalanta have played 13, winning nine of those games (D3 L1).
- Atalanta have won their last four UEFA Champions League games, the longest current run alongside Bayern Munich. They have also scored eight goals in their two knockout games so far (vs Valencia), as many as they did in their six group games.
- Atalanta have conceded more goals than any other remaining team in this season’s competition (16 in eight games). They also have the highest Expected Goals Against tally among the final eight (16.7).
- Paris SG have scored in each of their last 32 UEFA Champions League games, currently the longest run in the competition. The last time they failed to find the net was against Manchester City in the quarter-finals of the 2015/16 edition.
- Josip Ilicic has scored five of Atalanta’s last seven UEFA Champions League goals. He’s also won more penalties than any other player in this season’s competition (3).
- Neymar has scored 12 goals in his last 16 UEFA Champions League knockout games. In fact, since 2014/15, only Cristiano Ronaldo (33), Lionel Messi (16) and Robert Lewandowski (14) have found the net on more occasions than the PSG forward in the latter stages of the competition.
Odds correct at 1645 BST (10/08/20)
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