Wembley Stadium is the venue as Mansfield face Port Vale in the Sky Bet League Two play-off final on Saturday. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: League Two play-off final
2pts Each team 1+ shots on target each half in 90 mins at Evens (Sky Bet)
1pt James Wilson to score anytime at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Nathan Smith 1+ headed shots on target at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
It’s fair to say Mansfield and Port Vale have arrived at Saturday’s Sky Bet League Two play-off final via slightly different means.
Nigel Clough's Mansfield, while not exactly cruising through, gave themselves a nice, smooth path, always in control of their semi-final in beating Northampton 3-1 on aggregate.
Port Vale, meanwhile, went the circuitous route, having trailed 2-0 with 10 minutes remaining of their first leg at Swindon before fighting back to take the tie to extra time, penalties and, ultimately, triumphing.
The bookies cannot separate the two sides and that’s hardly surprising – both won 22 league games in the regular season and both scored 67 goals as Vale finished just a point above the Stags.
Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Mansfield 17/10 | Draw 11/5 | Port Vale 17/10
Vale boss Darrell Clarke is likely to have to watch from the stands after his red card in the semi-final second leg against Swindon, when he aggressively confronted Robins defender Dion Conroy.
That will be a blow for both team and boss – Clarke was born in Mansfield, came through the Stags’ youth ranks and played for them more than 150 times.
But Vale coped without him during a lengthy absence through bereavement leave in the second half of the season and his suspension should have no real bearing on the game.
Cards on the table – I’m with the bookies on this one. Absolutely can’t call it. And while that suggests extra time and penalties are a decent shout, I just have a feeling one of these sides will edge it in 90 minutes.
Regardless of the outright result, we are dealing with two teams not afraid of having a go – and the standout price in this game is the even money on offer for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET EACH TEAM IN EACH HALF IN 90 MINS.
It’s a Sky Bet boost from 8/11 – and it simply needs to be taken advantage of. Mansfield have averaged 4.6 shots on target per game this season, Vale 3.9. Basically two per half apiece.
Elsewhere, with the teams so evenly matched, the smartest route to profit appears to be to focus on individuals who could make a difference – and, to be honest, we are spoiled for choice on both sides.
Mansfield have spread goals around 18 players this season, assists among 17, figures actually exceeded by Vale (18 different scorers but 20 different assist-makers).
I’m again drawn to another Sky Bet boost, namely Port Vale striker JAMES WILSON TO SCORE IN 90 MINUTES at a market-leading 7/2.
The former Manchester United man rifled in a ridiculous 13 shots over the two-legged semi-final, scoring twice, and with strike partner Jamie Proctor an injury doubt, Wilson looks set to carry Vale’s attacking threat once again in the final.
Wilson has netted in each of his past three games – and he’s attempted 16 shots across those matches. He’s clearly in the mood and knows Vale are relying on him.
I’m also keen to get onside another Vale player with an eye for goal. Centre-half Nathan Smith has scored just twice this season but has 29 efforts in 46 games – most of them, 23, being headers.
That’s a header every other game and while not all of them have been on target, it still makes the 8/1 on SMITH TO HAVE 1+ HEADED SHOTS ON TARGET look a value price at small stakes.
Mansfield v Port Vale best bets and score prediction
- Each team 1+ shots on target in each half in 90 mins at Evens (Sky Bet)
- James Wilson to score anytime at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
- Nathan Smith 1+ headed shots on target at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Mansfield 1-1 Port Vale (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 2145 BST (25/05/22)
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