Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Taylor Harwood-Bellis to be carded at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Kobbie Mainoo to be carded at 17/4 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Mainoo and Hardwood-Bellis to be carded at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 18/1
- Taylor Harwood-Bellis to be carded
- Kobbie Mainoo to be carded
Are Manchester United back?
They have certainly improved under Ruben Amorim and seem to be doing so on a day-by-day basis.
The Red Devils were unfortunate to leave Anfield with just a point in their last league game after outdoing leaders Liverpool for the majority of the match.
United then followed that up with another promising display at the Emirates in the FA Cup. The visitors took the lead and were in the ascendancy before a rash tackle from Diogo Dalot earned him a second yellow and the momentum swung in favour of Arsenal.
The Gunners quickly equalised and should have had the tie wrapped up within the 90 minutes with Kai Havertz squandering a sitter and Altay Bayindir foiling Martin Odegaard from the spot.
The ten-men of United showed a ferocity not seen for some time to dig their heels in for an hour in North London (30 minutes of normal time and 30 minutes of extra time) before progressing to the fourth round via penalties.
The Man Utd we have become accustomed to would probably drop points to Southampton on Thursday, and they may yet, but something about the recent uptick feels different.
There is certainly a lot to be enthused by and Thursday's opponents offer a perfect opportunity to build momentum.
The Saints ended an 11-game winless run with a 3-0 win over Swansea in the FA Cup at the weekend but the appointment of Ivan Juric has not had the desired effect.
Juric is yet to pick up a point in three games against West Ham, Crystal Palace and Brentford and the manner of the 5-0 defeat in the latter raised questions over the players' commitment.
What are the best bets?
The best betting opportunity comes from the player card markets at Old Trafford as this clash combines the best top-flight referee for cards with the side possessing the poorest discipline.
John Brooks has dished out 52 yellows in nine league appearances this term, comfortably the most of any referee to take charge of eight games or more. He has also given at least four cards on eight occasions and six or more seven times.
Southampton have racked up the most cards with 61 in total, so it makes sense to side with their joint-most booked player TAYLOR HARWOOD-BELLIS at 9/2 TO BE CARDED with Sky Bet.
The defender is as short as 2/1 in places and has received a caution in each of his last two league appearances.
It is worth noting Manchester United also rank highly on the cards charts with 49.
One of their serial offenders is KOBBIE MAINOO, he has five bookings in 12 league starts and looks like another solid price TO BE CARDED on Thursday.
Aside from his cynical record, he will be tasked with containing the lively Tyler Dibling.
The Saints are the fourth-most fouled side in the division and Dibling is their most fouled player, drawing an average of 1.9 per game.
Mainoo was carded in the reverse and looks like a cracking price to repeat the trick.
Combining the pair of Mainoo and Harwood-Bellis to both be booked is also worth a small play at 18/1 incase things get ugly.
Team news
To appear here...
Match facts
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 15 Premier League games against Southampton (W7 D8) since a 1-0 home loss in January 2016.
- Southampton lost 13 of their first 14 Premier League away games against Manchester United but have since lost just three of their last 10 visits to Old Trafford in the competition (W2 D5).
- Manchester United have lost each of their last three Premier League home games. They last lost more consecutively in February 1934 as a second tier side (5), while they last did so in the top-flight in October 1930 (6).
- Southampton are winless in their last 17 Premier League away games (D4 L13) – only between March 1985 and February 1986 have they had a longer run without a win on the road in the top-flight (19).
- Nine of Manchester United’s 28 Premier League goals conceded this season have been headers, while nine have also come from corners – in both cases these are league-high percentages (32%), while only Wolves have conceded more of each type overall (10 headers, 10 from corners).
- Southampton rank sixth for most passes made in the Premier League this season (9,910) but second bottom for most shots (187), meaning Saints average 53 passes per shot in the competition this term (more than any other side).
- Just 44.7% of Manchester United’s open play shots in the Premier League this season have come while under challenge from within two metres (115/257) – only Liverpool (43.5%) have a lower such share this term. Indeed, the Red Devils have fired a higher proportion of their shots from outside the box than any other side so far (37%).
- Among attacking players in the Premier League this season (attacking midfielders, wingers, strikers), Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes has received more passes in open play than anyone else (836), while only four players overall have made more progressive passes in open play than the Portuguese (88).
- Amad Diallo has been involved in nine goals in his last 12 Premier League starts for Manchester United, scoring three and assisting six. The Ivorian could be the first African player to reach double figures for goal involvements in a single campaign for the Red Devils.
- Southampton defenders Jan Bednarek and Jack Stephens pass to each other on average 40 times per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, the highest average of any duo to play at least 500 minutes together this term.
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (14/01/25)
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