After profiting on Manchester United's last Europa League game against Real Sociedad, Jake Pearson returns with best bets for the Red Devils' mouth-watering last-16 first-leg tie against Serie A giants AC Milan.
Football betting tips: Manchester United v AC Milan
1pt Double chance AC Milan or Draw at 13/10 (General)
Manchester United welcome AC Milan to Old Trafford with their tails well and truly up, with Sunday’s 2-0 victory over bitter rivals and champions-elect Manchester City still fresh in everyone’s memory.
That win showed Ole Gunner Solskjaer’s men at their very best, soaking up City pressure before unleashing the counter-attacking pace of Marcus Rashford, Daniel James and Anthony Martial.
That is not to say the win was undeserved, however, or that it was a smash-and-grab, as United created better chances than their opponents on the whole (xG scoreline: Man City 1.41 – 1.82 Man Utd).
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
While Sunday’s performance demonstrated just how devastating Ole’s side can be, it also confirmed exactly why United are playing second fiddle to City in the title race, sitting some 11 points behind their rivals, rather than mounting a serious challenge.
Indeed, Manchester United are possibly the most potent counter-attacking side in the land at present, something that is verified by their exemplary record away from home in the Premier League this term (winning nine and drawing six of their 15 matches on the road).
Their home record, however, is far less impressive (W6 D4 L4), with the Red Devils struggling to break down visitors when the onus is on them to do so.
Even in the last round of this competition, it was in the away fixture against Real Sociedad that Manchester United got the job done, running out convincing 4-0 winners. The return leg at Old Trafford ended goalless.
This fixture feels like a proper European tie, a meeting of two real heavyweights of the sport, and while the competition the fixture arrives in tells us something about the fortunes of these two powerhouse clubs over the past few years, they do both currently look to be finding their feet once more domestically.
AC Milan led Serie A for much of the season prior to their defeat to Inter last month, but the Rossoneri have bounced back from that blow with victories at Roma and Verona, as well as a draw at home to Udinese.
In fact, it has been Milan’s home form that has been the biggest reason for them currently sitting six points off the top of Serie A, as, similarly to Manchester United, they have an exemplary away record.
Milan have won 11 of their 13 matches on the road this season, losing just once, and it is that angle that will make this tie all the more difficult for United.
Return of the Zlat?
Milan scraped through their round of 32 tie against FK Crvena Zvezda on away goals, but talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic was absent for both legs of that fixture, and manager Stefano Pioli is hopeful that the Swedish striker can make his return to action against his former employers on Thursday evening.
Manchester United are flying high at present and probably do deserve to be favourites for this match, but there are a couple of other factors at play here that may mean United have been overestimated slightly.
United’s performances at home this term have not been anywhere near the impressive standards they have set on the road, while AC Milan actually boast the best away record in the top five European Leagues, averaging 2.61 points per game on their travels in Serie A.
Milan have conceded just 11 goals in their 13 away matches in Serie A this season, and it is likely they will try to keep things tight at Old Trafford. An away goal would do nicely for Pioli’s side but 0-0 would also be a good result.
This could quickly turn into a frustrating night for United, who will likely see plenty of the ball but little space to exploit in the Milan shape.
There looks to be slight value in opposing Manchester United in this fixture, and at a price of 13/10, it looks worth siding with AC MILAN OR DRAW in the double chance market.
Manchester United v AC Milan best bets and score prediction
- AC Milan or Draw at 13/10 (General)
Score prediction: Manchester United 0-0 AC Milan (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (09/03/21)
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