Manchester City v Manchester United derby preview: Alex Keble talks tactics ahead of Premier League rivals' Etihad meeting
Alex Keble looks at the Manchester derby tactical battle, and wonders if United's midweek win over Spurs can be a blueprint for taking down City.
On Wednesday morning the Manchester derby looked a foregone conclusion. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was dangling by a thread and his Manchester United team, devoid of confidence or creativity, were sinking further into mid-table obscurity. What a difference a day makes.
United fans now hope their shock 2-1 win over Tottenham at Old Trafford is the catalyst for change; hope their team can build momentum from a superb performance that - coming out of nowhere - made the board’s public declarations of support for Solskjaer look a lot less ridiculous.
To capture just how remarkably United’s display veered from the norm consider for a moment how odd it feels to say: Fred was absolutely superb. He controlled the midfield magnificently, collecting loose balls and passing crisply into the forwards with a fire and elasticity that betrayed everything supporters have learned about the Brazilian since his arrival at the club in the summer of 2018.
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Man City 3/10 | Draw 17/4 | Man Utd 8/1
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Alongside him, Scott McTominay was typically smart, while Jesse Lingard was his old self – dropping into space intelligently, weaving the ball into the front two – thanks to the dominance of the two midfielders behind him. They gave us an unexpected reminder of the high-tempo attacking football Solskjaer played at the beginning of his interim tenure, and provided a framework for the future – starting at Man City.
Territorial domination for City
But Pep Guardiola’s side will be nothing like Jose Mourinho’s Spurs, who passively sat in a midblock and invited the hosts to dictate the tempo. A wobbly midfield duo of Harry Winks and Moussa Sissoko bore the brunt of the criticism, but this was more about attitude and tactical shape.
Mourinho made the classic mistake of reverting to his defensive instincts, sitting right off the opposition in a hesitant 4-4-1-1 that neither pressed the ball nor dropped into a compressed formation.
City, of course, will do the exact opposite. They will press high and hard, easily winning the territorial battle and exposing the frailties – both technical and psychological – in the United squad by suffocating and swarming until the visitors are camped in their own half. The basic pattern of Saturday’s match, then, should be easy to follow: City will control the tempo and United will patiently wait for opportunities to counter-attack via the pace of Marcus Rashford and Daniel James.
Ordinarily, such a tactical set-up would almost entirely benefit City. Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva working in tandem are superb at picking the lock of a deep-lying defence, with the Belgian in particular hurting opponents by crossing from the right flank. Furthermore, the squeeze put on by City’s midfield would surely stamp out counter-attacks at source, keeping Rashford and James pinned back.
But with United upping their game against Tottenham, and City struggling for fluency over the last few weeks, this narrative has been thrown into doubt.
United’s counters behind Walker and Mendy
Against Spurs Fred snapped onto loose balls, quickly whipped passes out to the flanks, and manoeuvred cleverly out of danger to create space to instigate the counter-attack. If he and McTominay are equally good at the Etihad then United can, in theory, absorb pressure like a coiling wire and then spring forward - down two vacated flanks.
Kyle Walker’s recent positioning as an inverted full-back, sitting alongside Rodri in an attempt to sure up a too-porous midfield in Fernandinho’s absence, means the left wing may often be open for Rashford to explore. The England striker’s form tends to come in bursts, and so his sharpness will likely remain for this fixture. On the other wing James will hope for similar success behind the flat-footed Benjamin Mendy, who often sits too high up the pitch.
Rashford and James won’t be able to drag Untied into the contest on their own, but if Lingard can cover the width of the pitch to partake in one-twos with the wingers – and that’s what he does at his best – then City are in trouble.
Walker hasn’t been working out as an extra midfielder. The right-back doesn’t press or drop at the right moment, and will surely lose sight of an in-form Lingard as United break.
City’s stuttering attacking rhythms
Recent City matches have looked a little stilted and the possession a touch stale. De Bruyne’s frequent movement out to the right channel can leave Rodri without a forward passing option, meaning David Silva and Raheem Sterling are the only players combining with alacrity in the final third.
But more pressingly, Mendy’s poor performances and Walker’s inverted position (plus Leroy Sane’s injury) means nobody is making runs in behind a low defensive block, which used to be City’s most prominent tactical weapon for overcoming stubborn opposition shells.
Given that United have a strong back four, another City display like the weary one in the 2-2 draw with Newcastle would provide the visitors with a platform to win three points.
That lack of width will be even more concerning should United deploy a back three, as they did in the 2-0 defeat to Man City in April last year. Using wing-backs would allow the visitors to get tight to Bernardo Silva and Sterling who, without support out wide, would be forced back into congested midfield areas.
Form guide still points to City win
Then again, we could be analysing United’s win in midweek too closely. This is, after all, a Man City team that have won 23, drawn one, and lost two of their last 26 home league matches and a Man Utd team that have won just one of their ten away games since Solskjaer became permanent manager. Playing with focus and cohesion at Old Trafford is an entirely different proposition to doing so at the Etihad.
And City remain threatening despite occasional creative stutters, scoring at least twice in six of their last seven Premier League games.
Bernardo Silva came into the side at Burnley and notably excelled, adding a grace and artistry that will surely trouble Brandon Williams, plus Gabriel Jesus’s brace proved he will be clinical when United concede chances in the penalty area.
What’s more, the two Silvas and De Bruyne have enough individual talent to thread passes in between the Man Utd defence and settle a tight game with a moment of quality.
Wednesday night could yet be a false dawn for United. Whether facing a back three or a back four, it remains Man City’s game to lose.