Manchester derby cheat sheet: Man Utd vs Man City tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
- The Manchester derby takes centre stage for Tom Carnduff's (@TomCarnduff) Cheat Sheet column this week.
Football betting tips: Manchester derby
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ offsides at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
Back our suggested BuildABet @ 13/1
Manchester United 2+ offsides
Julian Alvarez to score or assist
Raphael Varane 1+ tackles
Harry Maguire 2+ fouls
A meeting between two Manchester sides in contrasting positions. City's title chase is on once again; United are looking to push themselves away from mid-table mediocrity.
A turgid performance in a 1-0 win over Copenhagen - aided by a penalty save in the final seconds - summing up where they are at the moment. Erik ten Hag has hardly been the saviour that some had hoped for - even with Carabao Cup success last season.
They won this fixture last season but we can't say they've developed on the 'building blocks' of the manager's first campaign at the helm. An off day for City is a possibility of course, but it's hard to disagree with their 8/13 price for success.
Time your runs
One thing that is a feature of this Manchester United team is their struggles to avoid the offside flag.
They've been averaging 2.9 offsides per game in the Premier League this season - the second-highest in the division - with three the last time they faced City and six in that win at Old Trafford back in January.
One of those players contributing is BRUNO FERNANDES, who has been caught offside in four of his nine league outings so far.
At a best price of 4/1, the appeal is there in taking the attacking midfielder to see 1+ OFFSIDES in the contest.
A counter attacking approach at times will contribute to this. While it's often the wingers you look to in this market, Fernandes will be involved in the United attacks when they break forward.
This bet is also slightly based on Fernandes potentially being pushed out to the right side of the attacking quartet as he has done in the past, with ten Hag potentially looking to replicate the successful formula of last season's game.
That will allow them to pack the midfield out a bit more, and aiding Fernandes' possibility for an offside.
And considering the home side's offside problems, and City's higher line, UNITED 2+ OFFSIDES is worth involvement in a multiple.
The average stands at 2.9 in all league games, with the figure at 2.8 in home games showing consistency.
Alvarez in fine form
I've spoken about Julian Alvarez in a recent Cheat Sheet column, and the forward's season continues to go from strength-to-strength.
You can get near even money as a single on ALVAREZ TO SCORE OR ASSIST, and he should have involvement if City are to strike as expected.
Across 12 Premier League & Champions League appearances, the 23-year-old has seven goals and a further five assists. He is thriving with the opportunity to start regularly in this side.
Tackle the value
It feels like I've used this sub-heading many times when talking about tackles, but I can't be bothered to think of a new one right now.
Anyway, we'll have RAPHAEL VARANE 1+ TACKLES in this game.
He should be starting at centre-back again after coming on in midweek, and United need him available if they are to stand any chance of achievement this season.
Varane had three successful tackles in his last league start against Palace, while also seeing one in each of the games against Tottenham and Wolves.
I won't include this in my four for now, but I'll keep this here in case he is starting on Sunday.
SOFYAN AMRABAT 3+ TACKLES adds a good bit of value to a multiple.
He saw five successful tackles in the win over Sheffield United last time out, with a staggering total of six tackles and five fouls in the home defeat to Palace - although he was playing left-back that day.
Amrabat saw two successful tackles despite only playing one half of the win over Copenhagen in midweek too.
Don't miss Maguire
HARRY MAGUIRE scored the crucial goal for United last time out, but we're more interested in the defensive side of his game for this bet.
Taking the centre-back 2+ FOULS looks the best approach - he's achieved this in each of his last two Premier League starts.
There was also a foul in the win over Copenhagen, and the strength of this City attack should force him into a few mistimed attempts as he closes down the opposition.
Team news
Manchester United are still dealing with injury problems in their defence.
Centre-back Lisandro Martinez remains out, while left-backs Tyrell Malacia and Luke Shaw are also missing. Aaron Wan-Bissaka's absence means that Diogo Dalot should start at right-back again.
Amad Diallo and Casemiro are two more sidelined, while Jadon Sancho remains unavailable for selection.
For City, Kevin De Bruyne is their only injury concern. Manuel Akanji is suspended after his red card against Brighton.
Predicted line-ups
United: Onana; Dalot, Varane, Maguire, Reguilon; Casemiro, Amrabat; Fernandes, Eriksen, Rashford; Hojlund.
City: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Gvardiol; Stones, Rodri; Foden, Alvarez, Silva, Doku; Haaland.
Match facts
- Manchester United came from behind to win this exact fixture 2-1 last season – they're looking to win consecutive home league games against Man City for the first time since a run of three between 2008-09 and 2010-11.
- Manchester City have won more Premier League away games against Manchester United than any other side (8), with seven of their eight wins at Old Trafford coming in their last 12 visits.
- Manchester United have won their last two Premier League games, having lost four of their previous six (W2). All five of their league wins this season have been by a single goal, with four of those being won courtesy of a goal scored in the final 15 minutes.
- Manchester City have lost their last two Premier League away games. They last lost more consecutively on the road between March and July 2020, which included a 2-0 loss at Manchester United.
- Only Arsène Wenger (12) has ever won more Premier League games against Manchester United than Man City boss Pep Guardiola (7). Of all managers to have faced the Red Devils at least 10 times in the competition, Guardiola is the only one to have won at least 50% of his games against them (7/14).
- Bruno Fernandes has scored in his last two games against Manchester City – the last Man Utd player to score in three consecutive Manchester derbies in all competitions was Paul Scholes in the 2003-04 campaign.
- Heading into MD10, no player has scored the opening goal in more different Premier League games this season than Man City’s Julián Álvarez. Three of his four strikes this term have been the opening goal in the match, while all four have also been Man City’s first goal in the game.
- Scott McTominay has scored three goals in his last two Premier League games, with these strikes being worth five points to Manchester United. It’s more goals than he’d netted in his previous 70 league games combined for the Red Devils (2).
Odds correct at 1125 BST (27/10/23)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.