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Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Erling Haaland to score anytime at evens (bet365)
1pt Bruno Guimaraes to be shown a card at 5/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Two sides who enjoyed convincing victories on opening weekend, although it was Saturday's visitors who particularly impressed with their demolition job of Aston Villa.
Five goals from four different scorers should give Eddie Howe's plenty of confidence, despite City's success in the continental Community Shield - or UEFA Super Cup to give it its proper name.
Such is Newcastle's quality that City are priced higher than we are used to seeing in home games. A total of 17 wins from 19 games at the Etihad last season further underlines their Premier League dominance - although Newcastle boasted the third-best away record.
This will be far from one of those easy outings that City are so used to in front of their own supporters. Newcastle have the ability and tactical nous to make it a tricky evening.
A close contest can be expected and, as such, it's difficult to understand whether 4/6 is the value or not.
Stay clear of the outright market as you tuck into your weekend takeaway, and enjoy a game that will deliver the entertainment you can't find anywhere else among the pitiful Saturday night TV offerings.
What are the best bets?
Some bookmakers have gone as big as evens on ERLING HAALAND TO SCORE ANYTIME, which is always worth backing given his prolific nature in front of goal.
I'm not going to sit and take loads of time by telling you things you already know. Haaland scored twice on opening day, with 36 goals coming in 35 league appearances last season.
The striker found the net in 65.7% of the league games he featured in - one of those being the 3-3 draw away at Newcastle.
For something a bit bigger, I'm willing to gamble on the 5/2 best price for BRUNO GUIMARAES TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
He was booked in the win over Villa last time out and the new refereeing approach looks like it's here to stay. We know that Newcastle are a team who don't mind committing fouls or playing down the clock in tough contests.
Last season, Newcastle saw 51.8% of their match minutes with the ball in play, the fourth-lowest amount in Europe's big five leagues (via Opta Analyst). They'll need that sort of contest here.
Referee Robert Jones dished out five yellows in Brentford's 2-2 draw with Tottenham last weekend, while Guimaraes averaged 1.4 fouls per Premier League game in 22/23.
BuildABet @ 9/1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 11+ corners
- Kieran Trippier 2+ tackles
- Sandro Tonali 2+ tackles
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Kieran Trippier and Sandro Tonali should be heavily involved in the defensive side of the game with Manchester City expected to enjoy the majority of possession.
Newcastle do possess quality throughout though and will see opportunities to attack, that is reflected in two of their five shots in this fixture last season being on target.
They also had four corners in that game, with City taking eight, so if there are goals we could expect to see the corner count hit double figures too.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Team news
Kevin De Bruyne remains sidelined for an extended period after aggravating an injury in the win over Burnley last time out.
Bernardo Silva is also a doubt having missed the Super Cup victory over Sevilla, but Pep Guardiola has the remainder of his squad to choose from.
For Newcastle, Eddie Howe will be without Joe Willock, alongside depth options Emil Krafth and Javier Manquillo.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester City: Ederson; Stones, Dias, Gvardiol, Lewis; Kovacic, Rodri; Foden, Alvarez, Grealish; Haaland
Newcastle: Pope; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Joelinton, Tonali, Guimaraes; Almiron, Isak, Gordon
Match facts
- Man City have lost just one of their last 31 Premier League games against Newcastle( W25 D5), going down 2-1 at St. James' Park in January 2019.
- Man City have won their last 14 Premier League home games against Newcastle, scoring 48 goals and conceding just seven. It's both the Citizens' longest winning home run and the Magpies' longest losing away run against specific opposition in their league histories.
- Manchester City have won 21 of their last 23 Premier League games at the Etihad (D1 L1), with the exceptions coming in consecutive games against Brentford (1-2) and Everton (1-1) in November/December last season.
- Erling Haaland has scored 38 goals in 36 Premier League appearances, netting twice in Man City's opening day victory against Burnley. The Norwegian has also been involved in 29 goals in just 18 league games at the Etihad Stadium, scoring 22 and assisting seven.
- Since the start of last season, Newcastle's Callum Wilson has scored more Premier League goals as a substitute than any other player (5), including his strike against Aston Villa on MD1. Indeed, of all players to score at least five times since last season, only Erling Haaland (one every 75 minutes) has a better minutes-per-goal ratio than Wilson (one every 100).
Odds correct at 0900 BST (18/08/23)
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