2pts Under 2.5 goals at 17/20 (William Hill)
1pt Jorginho to be shown a card at 10/3 (bet365, Unibet)
You don't win Premier League titles in September, but the fine margins we've seen in May highlight how crucial this game may be in deciding our eventual champion.
City finished two points ahead of Arsenal last season, much closer than the five points of the season before, and it's City who've edged ahead in the early exchanges between the two sides who once again dominate the outright market.
Perhaps this burgeoning rivalry and the narrowing of the gap between them explains why the equivalent contest in March was such a dull one. Fear of failure overcame pursuit of success - play it safe and hope you get your moment was the way both sides operated.
As much as we'd love a Super Sunday thriller at this earlier stage of the season, there isn't a great deal to suggest we'll get one this time around either.
The consequences of defeat remain significant. There are enough games to make it up, of course, but the results of the two games will be looked back upon when one of these two sides lifts the trophy in May. For Arsenal, who suffered the first small blow when drawing with Brighton, losing puts them firmly on the back foot.
Expect phrases such as 'tactically fascinating' to pop up among various social media threads outlining what each coach attempted to secure victory. It's just not a game to rely on if you're looking for end-to-end action.
The final whistle on that previous meeting between the two sides presented me with two emotions.
One of relief that it's finally over, the other of fear that we may have seen two more in the semi-finals of the Champions League. Luckily, that didn't happen. Neither made it that far.
I'm not going to side with either team because Arsenal do have the capability of stopping this from becoming any sort of contest. A point will be viewed as a positive one - there isn't huge pressure on the need for victory.
Considering I've not gone the way of selling this as a thriller, the 17/20 available on UNDER 2.5 GOALS therefore delivers the most appeal. The 4/5 and 5/6 with the majority of other bookmakers are also fine prices.
Part of the way Arsenal demonstrated their capability in preventing it becoming an end-to-end contest last season was by stopping the flow of the game as much as they can.
Only two teams averaged fewer fouls per away game than Mikel Arteta's men (10.3) in 23/24, yet they finished the game at the Etihad with 20. Considering it worked in terms of the result, there's every chance of a repeat.
Referee Michael Oliver has shown at least four yellows in all four of his Premier League outings this season - eight when Forest surprised Liverpool last time out - so combining a strict referee with a fouls-led approach should mean cards for the visitors.
After all, Oliver flashed five when officiating this fixture at the Emirates in October, while other 'significant' games have also given us bookings (seven yellows and one red in Liverpool 0-0 Manchester United, three in each of Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City and Tottenham 2-3 Arsenal).
There are a few players who could be of interest to the referee then, but the main candidate in the cards markets comes in the form of JORGINHO TO BE BOOKED.
He was shown a yellow by Oliver in one of the two games last season, and City's even split of vertical attacking thirds could see him under pressure at various times.
There's also his position as a deeper figure in the Arsenal midfield - a prime spot for a tactical foul to stop any potential counter-attacking situations.
Jorginho was booked in his first start of the season - that being the win over Tottenham in their last league game - and he's very likely to feature again here given injury issues for both Mikel Merino and Martin Odegaard.
The Italy international may not have started Thursday's Champions League draw at Atalanta but Arteta isn't going to look towards a system with both forwards in Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz involved from the off.
In what is likely to be a close, low-event contest, fouls could become a prominent feature.
Manchester City suffered a significant injury blow during their 0-0 draw with Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday night.
Kevin De Bruyne picked up a knock which forced him off at half-time and reports indicate that the playmaker won't be fit enough to feature on Sunday.
Guardiola may turn towards Ilkay Gundogan as his replacement, with Savinho and Phil Foden providing width. Foden came off the bench at half-time in midweek.
Arsenal remain without the influential Odegaard while summer signing Merino is still sidelined.
Jorginho is likely to come into the midfield trio, while former City forward Raheem Sterling will push for a start in place of Gabriel Martinelli on the left side of the Arsenal attack.
Manchester City XI: Ederson; Dias, Akanji, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Rodri; Savinho, Silva, Gundogan, Foden; Haaland.
Arsenal XI: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber; Jorginho, Partey, Rice; Saka, Havertz, Martinelli.
Odds correct at 1035 BST (20/09/24)
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