Manchester City v Liverpool tips: Premier League best bets and preview
The Premier League returns with a huge game as Manchester City welcome Liverpool. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Virgil van Dijk to have 1+ fouls at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Rodri to score or assist at 7/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Jack Grealish to score anytime at 13/2 (Unibet)
Manchester City taking on Liverpool is always a fixture that should create excitement, even if the two aren't locked in an intense title race as we've seen in recent seasons.
Pep Guardiola's men have a chance of top spot once again, but it's Arsenal's to lose now, while Liverpool's search for a top-four finish is still seen as an outside chance in terms of the odds.
City going off as short as 8/15 with some bookmakers further highlights the contrasting seasons of the two teams. The Reds' away record has been one of many negatives in a campaign to forget.
Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: BT Sport 1
Manchester City 8/15 | Draw 10/3 | Liverpool 19/4
Only three of Liverpool's 13 on the road in the Premier League have ended in victory, a return of 12 points from a possible 36 leaving them 13th in the away standings.
A tough ask against a City side who have lost just once in front of their own supporters, while they won 3-2 when they last met Liverpool - that thriller coming in the Carabao Cup just days after the World Cup final.
This fixture has delivered highly entertaining outcomes in recent years, with six of the last seven seeing the over 3.5 goals line a winner. This run can continue, even with Jürgen Klopp's side in a poorer state than usual.
We'll come to goalscorers shortly, but the 11/10 available on VIRGIL VAN DIJK TO HAVE 1+ FOULS is well worth backing.
The Liverpool centre-back hasn't been one to regularly contribute in the foul count, but it's definitely been a feature of his game when away rather than at Anfield.
In 11 Premier League games at home this season, van Dijk has committed a foul in just three (27%). In their 11 away, this jumps up to five (45%), with two coming in the defeat at Bournemouth.
The defender committed a foul in three of their four away Champions League games (75%), and a point of interest is that four of the five in the Premier League were games where they didn't win.
Add in the fact he'll be facing Erling Haaland, and if he's out injured then the lively Julián Álvarez, and it's easy for a situation to unfold where he mistimes a tackle or is forced to commit a small foul to stop an attack from developing fully.
He's not the player who flies into challenges but this bet doesn't need that. Any foul will do, and a small shirt pull that catches the referee's attention is enough to make this a winner.
When it comes to City games, I always think there is value in backing Rodri for goal involvement. This time is a slightly different one though, instead taking the 7/2 on RODRI TO SCORE OR ASSIST.
The midfielder has scored twice and assisted a further five in 26 Premier League appearances, but it could and probably should have been more based on the chances he has been seeing.
Rodri has taken a total of 42 shots across those games, meaning his total xG figure stands at a higher 4.06. He should have an opportunity or two in this game given home advantage.
He's actually 7/4 with Sky Bet for 2+ shots which is a bet worth considering if you want another stats one, but I wouldn't expect this selection to be 7/2 when consider the different factors.
Those underlying numbers are one, but it's also how short City are to win the game. The bookmakers are giving 4/7 on City scoring 2+, near the same odds as the win with four 'spots' on offer to make the pick a winner.
Rodri sees an average of 1.5 key passes per home Premier League game, higher than the likes of Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva and Ilkay Gundogan - players who occupy a more advanced role.
Foden will be absent in this one though, meaning Jack Grealish is likely to occupy the left wing spot, and the 13/2 available on GREALISH TO SCORE ANYTIME looks too big.
Grealish has only scored three this season but his form prior to the international break was good. He's also seen 2+ shots returned in four of his last six home Premier League outings.
He should enjoy some success against Trent Alexander-Arnold, but it's more the fact you're getting a price as big as this on a City attacker finding the net in a game they're expected to win.
Riyad Mahrez, with five Premier League goals this season, is a best price of 13/5, while Haaland, as you'd expect, is an odds-on 8/11.
Grealish isn't a prolific player but this is a game that gives him the potential to perform well. It's a value play, and one worth backing when it comes to the overpriced goalscorers.
Ultimately, it's hard to create a serious argument that City won't end up with victory here, even if Haaland and Foden are absent from the front line.
City's squad is packed with quality and they know they can't afford any further slip-ups as they aim to chase down Arsenal, and Liverpool's away showings this season may leave them fearing this fixture.
Instead of going for the hosts at a short price, value can be found in other markets and backing GREALISH, RODRI and VAN DIJK to have some involvement.
Manchester City v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Virgil van Dijk to have 1+ fouls at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Rodri to score or assist at 7/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- 1pt Jack Grealish to score anytime at 13/2 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1125 BST (30/03/23)
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