Manchester City welcome Brentford in the Premier League's early action. James Cantrill previews the game, providing his best bets - including a 13/1 punt.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 Cards at 5/4 (bet365)
0.5pts No Cards at 14/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Victory for reigning champions Manchester City would temporarily move them a point ahead of leaders Arsenal, with the Gunners not in action till the evening, though securing the three points may not be as routine as the 1/6 odds imply.
Despite picking up maximum points from their last two games, Pep Guardiola’s side made hard work of lowly Leicester and new boys Fulham.
With no Erling Haaland or Phil Foden, the Citizens could only muster an xG of 0.73 at the King Power, their lowest domestic total to date. Kevin De Bruyne’s moment of quality, an inch perfect freekick, ultimately proved to be the difference.
It was another dead ball situation that enabled them to snatch three points against the Cottages as Haaland slipped his penalty under Bernd Leno deep into injury time to best Fulham.
Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
TV Channel: BT Sport 1
Manchester City 1/9 | Draw 8/1 | Brentford 20/1
Although this will be just the 16th clash between City and Brentford in the clubs histories, the story of sides outside of the big six visiting the Etihad is a familiar one.
At home, City top the charts goals scored (4.1 per game), conceding the fewest (1 per game), boast a 100% win record and average 65% possession.
Those stats depict the script pretty well. A side comes to the Etihad, deploys a low block, looking to contain and counter. City dominate possession, eventually break their opposition down before winning comfortably.
Although the Bee’s two Premier League meetings with City have been relatively competitive, I expect Saturday’s meeting to follow suit.
This game dynamic of attack v defence, does not yield many cards which is why backing UNDER 2.5 CARDS appeals.
Last campaign, in their home EPL games against bottom half sides, siding with this lack of cards would have paid out in 80% of City’s fixtures.
The hosts only picked up nine cards across those ten fixtures with visiting sides only accumulating three or more on two occasions.
There is yet to be a card brandished in the top flight games between these sides, which is why I also think backing NO CARDS to be shown is also worth a punt.
In their games against Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Southampton and Fulham, City have only picked up three cards, boasting a clean slate in three of those fixtures.
Referee, Peter Bankes, can be a bit of an enigma when it comes to bookings giving as many as seven and as few as two this campaign.
This angle is more about the game dynamic though, so I am happy to take the chance that Bankes will have a quiet day here.
Manchester City v Brentford best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Cards at 5/4 (bet365)
- 0.5pts No Cards at 14/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1740 GMT (10/11/22)
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