Ralf Rangnick looks to make it three wins from four as Manchester United boss when they host Burnley. Joe Townsend has previewed the game, picking out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Charlie Taylor 2+ tackles at 4/5 (Coral)
1pt Charlie Taylor 3+ tackles at 9/4 (Coral)
1pt Both teams to score 'no' at 9/10 (General)
Manchester United's last two performances away at Norwich and Newcastle will have done little to whet the appetite for the Ralf Rangnick era.
A lucky 1-0 win courtesy of a late penalty was followed by a 1-1 draw which could have gone either way.
Those fixtures were against the two worst teams in the division. Now, heading into a match against the other side currently sitting in the Premier League's bottom three, it would take a brave punter to back United at 1/3.
That's not to say they won't beat Sean Dyche's Burnley, who are struggling more than usual this term, but it is an angle to be avoided on price alone.
Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Thursday
TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
Man Utd 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Burnley 15/2
Instead, it's best to look at how this match is likely to play out.
A characteristic, one of few, that Burnley share with United is their struggle to create clear chances. The Clarets have not found the net in their past three games, and have failed to muster more than 1.0 xG (Expected Goals) in seven of their last 10 games.
That lack of attacking fluency is hardly going to be helped by 18 days without competitive football, following multiple Covid-enforced postponements.
Yet to find rhythm under Ralf
Rangnick's pre-occupation with fixing Manchester United's defence, something there has been scant evidence of in terms of performances but some in terms of goals against (just one in three games), has undeniably caused a disconnect at the other end of the pitch.
In three fixtures against one decent and then two weak opponents, United have created just three Non-penalty Big Chances - chances with an xG of at least 0.35 (35%+ chance of scoring) - scoring just three goals in total, including a penalty.
The general 9/10 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' is one I'm happy to take.
High-pressing Ralf puts full-backs under pressure
Elsewhere, the tackle market looks ripe for taking advantage of given the radical change in tactics Rangnick has implemented since arriving at Old Trafford.
His famed 4-2-2-2 system relies heavily on full-backs pushing high and wide, and attacking midfielders operating in the half-spaces towards the corners of the penalty boxes to press like wild animals, with help from the front two.
As a result, opposition full-backs are put under consistent pressure.
In United's home game with Palace, both visiting full-backs registered four tackles. Away at Newcastle, it was three each.
The total absence of any kind of attacking rhythm in the Red Devils' trip to Norwich is perhaps well summed up by the fact neither Max Aarons nor Dimitris Giannoulis were forced to make a single challenge in game.
On Thursday night, CHARLIE TAYLOR is our man.
- CLICK HERE to back Charlie Taylor 2+ tackles with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Charlie Taylor 3+ tackles with Sky Bet
Against high-pressing Leeds and Liverpool in early season he made four tackles in successive weeks, against another in Crystal Palace last month he made three.
The prices on offer for TAYLOR 2+ TACKLES and 3+ TACKLES are not only longer than his full-back colleague Matt Lowton, but Taylor has been priced up bigger with Coral than with any other bookmaker.
It's for this reason that it's the Burnley left-back, not right-back, who edges into the staking plan.
Man Utd v Burnley best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Charlie Taylor 2+ tackles at 4/5 (Coral)
- 1pt Charlie Taylor 3+ tackles at 9/4 (Coral)
- 1pt Both teams to score 'no' at 9/10 (General)
Score prediction: Man Utd 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1830 GMT (28/12/21)
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