Manchester City face West Brom in the Premier League on Tuesday night, and Joe Townsend is backing a heavy home win.
2pts Man City to win to nil at 8/11
1pt Man City (-3) handicap to win at 11/5
0.5pt Man City (-5) handicap to win at 9/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
You'll struggle to find a heavier favourite in this season's Premier League than at the Etihad on Tuesday night.
Manchester City may be ninth in the table after a sluggish start, but win against a poor West Brom and they'll be within three points of the top having played the same number of games as their title rivals.
Plenty has been said about the goalscoring troubles of Pep Guardiola's team, and by their own high standards 17 goals after 11 league games is poor, but defensively they've been phenomenal - it's now six straight clean sheets in all competitions.
Guardiola has finally filled the giant Vincent Kompany-sized hole in his defence, 18 months after City's legendary captain left the club. Ruben Dias has quietly gone about his business since joining from Benfica for £64m in the summer, offering an assurance that had been sadly lacking since Kompany's departure.
His performances have breathed new life into the recently returned John Stones, after the England centre-back had seemed destined to leave. That is praise enough, but what is particularly telling is that whether Dias is partnered with Stones, Aymeric Laporte or Eric Garcia, City look secure; the Portugal international is their new lynchpin.
There's no reason to doubt City's defensive consistency now, especially against a West Brom team that is second bottom with only six points and has found the net just four times in their last eight league games.
City to win to nil is available at 8/11 with Paddy Power and Betfair; lump on.
While Guardiola himself has admitted to being frustrated by his team's lack of potency this term, who wouldn't be given their record of scoring more than 300 goals across his three previous top-flight campaigns at the helm, don't let that put you off backing a big City win.
They've still had their moments, thumping Burnley 5-0 and scoring for fun in the Champions League, and typically this is the kind of contest City have relished under Guardiola, ruthlessly tearing through a newly-promoted team like a fresh piece of meat.
West Brom seemed to have got a grip of things defensively but that collapsed spectacularly over the past week or so. Conceding seven times in total against goal-shy duo Crystal Palace and Newcastle really does take some doing, especially when the latter had been hit hard by Covid-19.
I cannot see anything other than a heavy defeat for the Baggies, and given City's newfound defensive solidity that makes the handicap market the place to go.
Backing Guardiola's men to win by at least four goals at 11/5 with Paddy Power seems like a no brainer to me in a game which I believe has the potential to be an absolute rout. The fact City are odds-on to win by at least three is no surprise whatsover.
Really go for it and there are riches to be had, with the -6 handicap priced at 18/1. Would anyone really bat an eyelid should City turn West Brom over 7-0? Knock a goal off and Sky Bet will give you 9/1 for Man City to win by at least six. That is worth a small stakes punt.
Score prediction: Man City 6-0 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Best bets:
Odds correct at 12:20 GMT (14/12/20)
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.