Man City v Spurs tips: Premier League best bets and preview
The two derby losers from last weekend meet in midweek, as Manchester City look to close the gap at the top. Jake Osgathorpe provides a best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Manchester City to win with -1 handicap at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Boy is this a big game for both teams.
As the Premier League table stands, Manchester City are eight points behind leaders Arsenal following a 2-1 derby defeat to Manchester United at the weekend, while Tottenham find themselves five points behind United who occupy the final Champions League place.
It feels like must-win for both, and while the feeling around the pair is fairly negative currently, I can't quite understand why there has been a massive overreaction to City's results.
Yes, defeat to Southampton in the Carabao Cup was disappointing, as was the derby defeat, but the Citizens out-created the Saints based on xG, while a loss at a title - and bitter - rival can happen.
The manner of Saturday's defeat, with a dubious goal allowing their hosts back into the game, means there is an asterisk around that result in my mind.
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Thursday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Man City 1/3 | Draw 17/4 | Tottenham 15/2
Prior to the United loss, Pep Guardiola's side had been excellent in their three league games since the restart, creating plenty while looking incredibly assured defensively.
They had generated a combined 8.15 xGF while allowing just 1.34 xGA, being incredibly unfortunate not to have won all three.
City are in decent nick in general then, especially at the Etihad this term, where they have averaged 2.39 xGF and 0.97 xGA per game, so are comfortably superior when welcoming visitors.
That should worry a Tottenham side who were completely outclassed by Arsenal at the weekend - an Arsenal side posting similar underlying numbers to this City team.
Spurs have won just once league games since the restart, losing the xG battle in three (BRE, AVL and ARS).
Across those four games, Antonio Conte's side have had major issues creating chances, with that becoming a worrying theme. They have averaged just 1.13 xGF per game over that period.
Away from home this season they rank eighth best for xGF per game (1.47) and seventh best for xGA per game (1.45), which isn't ideal when visiting the Etihad.
With City reeling from derby defeat and needing to bounce back, I'm expecting a big performance from them here against what does look like a poor Spurs side currently.
A City win and Under 3.5 goals appealed originally, but given Spurs' defensive issues, it wouldn't surprise me if City scored four themselves here.
So instead, I'm going to back MANCHESTER CITY -1 HANDICAP at even money.
This bet would be a winner if City win by a two goal margin or more, and I think there is every chance of that happening here, with the hosts needing to make a statement against the team their title rivals swept aside only four days prior.
The -1 handicap bet has landed in six of City's nine home games to date, with only one victory not seeing them win by two goals or more. That came against Fulham, a game in which they were reduced to 10-men after just 26 minutes.
Manchester City v Tottenham best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Manchester City to win with -1 handicap at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (17/01/23)
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