After a winner at 11/1 on Tuesday, Tom Carnduff is looking at another Manchester City defender to deliver as they take on Sheffield United.
Football betting tips: Premier League
0.5pts Ruben Dias to score first at 25/1
1pt Ruben Dias to score anytime at 17/2
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Manchester City v Sheffield United
- 15:00 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 1/10 | Draw 8/1 | Away 25/1
Are we witnessing the beginning of the greatest escape in Premier League history? Sheffield United's shock victory over Manchester United at Old Trafford was only their second win of the campaign, and for a team so used to defeat, four of their last five in all competitions have now ended in victory.
That said, two of those were one-goal wins over teams from Sky Bet League One while the other was a narrow victory against Newcastle. They will need something special to get something against a Manchester City side who have won each of their last eleven games.
They now have the advantage in the title race thanks to the Blades and it's a great opportunity to put further pressure on United who travel to Arsenal in the late kick-off. It may not be as high-scoring as we've seen from City in recent weeks, most recently being the 5-0 win over West Brom, but it should end in victory.
That game provided us with an 11/1 winner as Joao Cancelo found the net, and with the odds so heavily stacked in City's favour, the goalscorer market is worth delving into again for the best value. This time it's focused on another defender, and Ruben Dias is surely due a goal given his performances so far.
The centre-back has formed a superb partnership with John Stones, and while he has scored three goals in all competitions, Dias is still waiting for his first in a City shirt. It's a surprise considering how much of an attacking presence he is at set-pieces.
He should be a big problem for a Sheffield United side who struggle at set-piece situations. They are now level with Leeds for goals conceded from corners and free-kicks this season (10) and City have been able to strike, seven of their goals have come via this route.
Dias is averaging a higher average for aerial duels won per game than Stones (2.1 to 1.8) but the goals just haven't been there for him yet. His nine shots this season have gone unrewarded but this game looks like a great chance to get that first one, particularly if City are fancied to have plenty of corners (8+ is an odds-on 4/5 price).
The opportunities Dias has had to score are also demonstrated in his season Expected Goals figure standing at 1.83. Stones' two goals have come from 1.64 while Cancelo got one against West Brom despite a season figure of 0.57. Even Kyle Walker has a goal and his xG is a tiny 0.12.
So not only is Dias having chances but they are good opportunities to score. His shot against Villa carried a rating of 0.29 while the Palace attempt was 0.10 (for comparison, Stones scored from an effort that was 0.13). The defender can capitalise in this game if he gets a chance.
It's a general price of 25/1 that Dias grabs the first goal with 17/2 available on one anytime in the 90 minutes. Both are worth backing, particularly as this could be a low-scoring contest. City should come out on top but the last three meetings between these two teams have all seen under 2.5 goals.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Manchester City v Sheffield United best bets
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (28/01/21)
Opta facts
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 11 home games against Sheffield United in all competitions (W6 D5), since a 3-2 league defeat at Maine Road in October 1987, with Chris Wilder playing the full 90 minutes for the Blades.
- Sheffield United haven’t won a Premier League match against Manchester City in nine attempts (D3 L6), scoring just one goal across those games, a Brian Deane goal in a 1-1 draw in April 1993.
- Man City have kept a clean sheet in each of their last eight each home league matches against Sheffield United – in English league football, the last team to keep nine home clean sheets in a row against an opponent was Liverpool vs Stoke between 1983 and 2014.
- Man City are unbeaten in their last 32 home Premier League matches against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (W28 D4), since losing 2-1 against Spurs in November 2008, who started the day bottom of the table.
- Manchester City have won their last 11 games in all competitions, conceding just three goals in that run. They’ve never won 12 in a row in their history, while the last top-flight team to do so was Arsenal between August-October 2007.
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