Champions Manchester City host Everton on Sunday looking to keep pace with league-leaders Chelsea, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the game before giving his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10 (General)
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After a surprising defeat to Crystal Palace, Manchester City bounced back in excellent style, first thrashing Club Brugge 4-1 in the Champions League, and then cruising to a 2-0 win at Old Trafford against fierce rivals Manchester United.
The latter of those two was an eye-catching display, mainly due to the appearance that City didn't get out of second gear. In games against the league's best though - all of which have come away from home - we have seen their most polished performances.
They may not even need to be at their very best to beat Everton on Sunday, especially due to the injury issues the Toffees have as they head across the M62.
Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Man City 1/6 | Draw 6/1 | Everton 16/1
City were exceptional at both ends against an albeit poor Manchester United, again looking incredibly solid defensively (xG: MUN 0.84 - 1.73 MCI), and that has been the one area of constant excellence for Pep Guardiola's side.
Over the course of this season, City have allowed an average of just 0.74 expected goals against (xGA) per game, an improvement on their figure from last season of 0.87.
In fact, ever since Pep Guardiola took over at Manchester City, they have been the best defensive team in the league every season based on xGA.
In attack, while they are creating plenty of chances, they haven't been finding the net at a high rate, and have instead been winning low-scoring games.
Four of their seven wins in the Premier League have seen Under 3.5 Goals, while if we extend that back to last season, 20 of their 34 league wins have come with fewer than four goals in the match.
We should see the same again here, meaning MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS appeals at odds against.
Everton are a team bang out of form, as their current winless run of five attests to, with their xG process taking a real turn for the worst.
The Toffees started the season well, but across their last five have generated 1.32 xGF and 1.97 xGA per game, highlighting their struggles.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is still expected to be out for this game, as is Abdoulaye Doucoure - two big players for Rafa Benitez's side.
Without those key players, expect Everton to deploy a deep-block in an attempt to frustrate City, which will also likely contribute to a low-scoring affair.
All in all, a routine City win is on the cards, and with 59% of their 34 wins over two seasons seeing Under 3.5 Goals - implied odds of nearly 4/6 - the price of 11/10 should be snapped up this weekend.
Manchester City v Everton score prediction and best bets
- 2pts Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10 (General)
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1630 GMT (19/11/21)
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