Nick Hext expects Manchester City to take a comfortable advantage in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final against Bristol City.
Manchester City v Bristol City (1945 GMT, Sky Sports Football)
You won't get any bigger than 1/6 for Manchester City to win at home to Bristol City in Tuesday night's first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final.
I unsurprisingly can't see anything other than the hosts winning at the Etihad Stadium but there is a way to eke a bit more value out of the contest.
The stats for Manchester City are jaw-dropping this season. They have only lost one of 32 matches in all competitions, that loss came when going down 2-1 at Shakhtar Donetsk in December after top spot was already secured in their Champions League group.
In domestic action, it is 26 games unbeaten following Saturday's convincing 4-1 win at home to Burnley in the FA Cup and I reckon this will be another victory for Pep Guardiola's men without keeping a clean sheet.
Five of Manchester City's last six wins at home have been garnered despite the opposition scoring and I reckon there's enough about Bristol City to pose some problems for the home side's defence.
Sky Bet Championship promotion contenders Bristol City have lost their previous three matches but don't let that dampen the enthusiasm that fans of the Robins rightly feel after a fine campaign so far.
The Robins have knocked out four Premier League sides - Manchester United, Crystal Palace, Stoke and Watford - on the way to reaching the last four of the competition and they managed to net at least twice against all of that quartet.
Boss Lee Johnson made seven changes for Saturday's 3-0 defeat at Watford in the FA Cup but it will be a full-strength side selected to meet the Premier League leaders.
I don't fancy Bristol City to cause an almighty upset at 28/1 but 9/5 does appeal for the Robins to net in a victory for Guardiola's stars.
The quality of Johnson's side has been proven during the Carabao Cup run to date and they are just as good as West Ham and Southampton, who both managed to score when falling to defeat at the Etihad Stadium in the last couple of months.
I was also hoping for a bigger price about Manchester City's Bernardo Silva finding the back of the net.
The former Monaco playmaker netted the opener as City drew 1-1 at Leicester before winning on penalties in the quarter-finals and also struck in Saturday's victory against Burnley.
He's available at a best price of 17/11 in the anytime market but it's an equal split between starting and coming off the bench in Manchester City's last eight games. I recommend waiting for the starting XIs before taking an interest.
Prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Bristol City (Sky Bet's odds: 10/1)
Recommended bet:
2pts Manchester City to beat Bristol City and both teams to score at 9/5
Posted at 1420 GMT on 08/01/18
Opta statistics
- This will be the first meeting of any kind between these sides since Manchester City won a second round League Cup tie 2-1 at Ashton Gate in August 2007 – Emile Mpenza and Rolando Bianchi scoring for Sven-Goran Eriksson’s City.
- Bristol City have eliminated four top-flight clubs so far in this year’s competition – the only other lower league side to knock out that many were Sheffield Wednesday in 1990-91, who that year were the last non top-flight side to lift the trophy.
- This is the fifth successive even-numbered year that Manchester City have reached the League Cup semi-finals – they were eliminated in 2010 and 2012, but progressed and ultimately won the trophy in 2014 and 2016.
- Manchester City have progressed from their last eight League Cup ties against sides from a lower tier, scoring 28 goals in the process. Their last elimination came on penalties against Brighton in September 2008.
- This will be the first time Bristol City have faced the side top of the Premier League table since both legs of their League Cup second round tie against Newcastle in 1995-96 – they lost 8-1 on aggregate.
- No player has been involved in more EFL Cup goals this season than Bristol City’s Matt Taylor (two goals, two assists). Taylor also set up Korey Smith’s winner against Man Utd in the previous round.
- Bristol City are the highest goalscorers in this season’s competition, netting 16 goals from 32 shots on target in their five games.
- Meanwhile, Manchester City are the lowest scorers left in the competition, scoring just three goals from 20 shots on target.