Luton v Sunderland tips: Sky Bet Championship play-offs best bets and preview
The second leg of the play-offs begin with Luton hosting Sunderland on Tuesday. Tom Carnduff has a headline 47/1 tip to back.
Football betting tips: Championship
1.5pts Luton to beat Sunderland in 90 minutes at 11/10 (General)
0.5pt Niall Huggins & Amari'i Bell both to be carded at 47/1 (Sky Bet)
- Aggregate score: Luton 1-2 Sunderland
The Sky Bet EFL play-offs have not disappointed so far. The open nature of the post-season competition is underlined in the fact that all three favourites for promotion do not hold a lead heading into the second legs.
Luton were our pick and they have work to do here. The good news is that they are at home and only trail by the single goal - it's a turnaround they can make based on what we've seen from them this season.
Burnley and West Brom are the only teams to have beaten the Hatters at home in the league under Rob Edwards' guidance, with eight of the other 11 ending in victory. An important point to make for this game is that five of the last six have been wins.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Luton Evens | Draw 12/5 | Sunderland 11/4
For Sunderland, three of their five away games against the top six were defeats, with the other two being draws. That said, the loss at Sheffield United came before Tony Mowbray's arrival.
It was a strong second-half performance in the first leg that led to the Black Cats having the lead, but Luton could have been in a commanding position at the break as they saw the better of the chances in the first.
Amad Diallo's wonder strike drew Sunderland level, although they could have been two down at that stage. It's credit to Mowbray's men for not only their second-half attacking display but also how they limited the opposition.
But the story should be different here, and with 11/10 available with multiple bookmakers, it's worth backing LUTON TO WIN.
There's an element of doubling down here on Luton's progression, but they've been putting together some strong results in front of their own supporters.
The Hatters have posted impressive underlying numbers during their run too. They limited Watford to just 0.07 xG in a 2-0 victory, while six of the 11 home opponents under Edwards have been restricted to under 1.00 xG.
In response, they've gone over the above 1.00 xG tally eight times, with this being the case in each of the last six.
This is a Sunderland side who have conceded 7.4 xG across their previous five away games - an average of 1.48 - with Cardiff and West Brom combining for 3.72 xG in the most recent two.
Essentially, Luton should see chances against a Sunderland side that has been conceding them. Game state means the home side will have to be on the front foot throughout.
Given the occasion, there is a much bigger-priced bet that provides appeal and that's backing NIALL HUGGINS & AMARI'I BELL TO BE CARDED at a huge 47/1 with Sky Bet.
The inexperienced Huggins could be featuring at right-back in place of the potentially injured Patrick Roberts, and he will have to deal with Alfie Doughty driving forward from left wing-back.
Bell may be occupied with Diallo, and he committed a foul as Luton saw a huge total of 20 in the first leg. Referee Simon Hooper averages 3.52 cards per game this season - each of his last six in the Premier League have had at least four.
This is an impressive young Sunderland team which has defied expectations by featuring in the play-offs. LUTON have been on another level under Edwards though, making them an appealing selection on Tuesday.
Luton v Sunderland best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Luton to beat Sunderland at 11/10 (General)
- 0.5pt Niall Huggins & Amari'i Bell both to be carded at 47/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Luton 3-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1230 BST (15/05/23)
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