Luton: Can Rob Edwards' side stay in the Premier League?

By Joe Townsend

Football

Mon December 11, 2023 · 1y ago

"They're a really good team, better than a lot of people give them credit for."

Speaking after Manchester City battled to three points at Luton, Jack Grealish summed things up pretty perfectly.

It couldn't have been further from Garth Crooks' frankly disgraceful early-season admission that he “couldn't take Luton seriously”; stunningly ironic given the BBC Sport pundit's reputation for selecting a team of the week that often borders on comical.

Sunday's meeting between Premier League minnows and treble-winners may have ended in an expected victory, but there was so much more to it.

For the third time already this season, and the second time this week, Luton pushed a title contender to the very end.

Luton at home vs. current top five

Luton 0-1 Tottenham
Luton 1-1 Liverpool
Luton 3-4 Arsenal
Luton 1-2 Man City

Consistently tough to face

Carlton Morris has been a handful for Luton this season

It could even be argued it is in fact the fourth occasion, given the hype surrounding early leaders Tottenham's start to the season when they visited Kenilworth Road in early October.

What can't be argued is that all four opponents were made to work exceptionally hard for their points.

Tottenham needed a second-half set-piece to break the deadlock, Liverpool a 95th-minute equaliser, Arsenal a 97th-minute winner and Manchester City had to fight back with two goals just after the hour mark before being forced to hold on rather than being able to pull clear.

What is also beyond argument, and something that will undoubtedly be used as evidence for why they remain without much chance of achieving Premier League survival, is the fact the Hatters have only one point to show from those encounters.

To dismiss it that easily is to not only do them a disservice, but to also underestimate the effectiveness of Rob Edwards' team.

Had they held out for a combined extra 90 seconds against Liverpool and Arsenal they would be two points behind a struggling Nottingham Forest side whose manager is under constant scrutiny thanks to rumours he will be sacked after their next defeat.

Of course those three extra points would, and more importantly could, be huge.

But do those two moments make Luton any better or worse a team?

Sure of themselves

There is no imposter syndrome about this squad, and if there ever was then three-goal defeats in their opening two fixtures at Brighton and Chelsea quickly swept that away.

Since then, only once have they lost by more than a single goal - 3-1 away to an Aston Villa side whose recent back-to-back victories over City and Arsenal took them to 14 consecutive home league wins.

That demonstrates Luton's ability to be competitive in the Premier League, which will undoubtedly help give them belief.

The fact only Liverpool and Arsenal have scored more goals in the final 15 minutes of matches than Luton (9) shows they already have plenty.

Premier League relegation | stay up odds (via Sky Bet)

Sheff Utd - 1/10 | 11/2
Luton - 1/6 | 7/2
Burnley - 2/5 | 7/4
N Forest - 11/4 | 1/4
C Palace - 7/1 | 1/16
Everton - 8/1 | 1/20

Odds correct at 20:00 GMT (11/12/23)

"I think we take confidence from this week," said Edwards after defeat by City.

"We've played two of the top three, so everyone else we're going to play - with total respect for everyone else, who have really good players - are not going to be like coming up against Arsenal and Manchester City every week.

"We can take a lot of confidence, and we'll just keep working in the areas that we know we need to keep improving."

Luton were 20/1 to beat City, 16/1 to beat Arsenal and 14s against Liverpool.

Newcastle are next up at Kenilworth Road and while they may be some way adrift of the aforementioned trio, as well as currently being the fourth-worst away side in the top flight this season, their 9/2 price reflects the changing attitude towards the Hatters.

And yet they remain 1/6 for relegation and 4/1 to stay up.

If it is to be the newly-promoted trio vs. Nottingham Forest in a race for survival, is it truly inconceivable that Edwards' side gather five more points than Forest over the next 22 fixtures?

"They're a really good team, better than a lot of people give them credit for."

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