Luis Diaz's strong form a key factor behind Liverpool's positive start
It felt like a matter of when and not if Luis Diaz would leave Liverpool during the summer transfer window.
The Colombia international was reportedly being courted by Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain and there was an expectation that the Reds would return for Anthony Gordon late on in the window.
Cody Gakpo’s exploits for the Netherlands at the Euros were also supposed to have an impact on Diaz’s standing within the squad. The former PSV attacker impressed as a left-sided attacker for the Dutch.
With Arne Slot coming in to succeed Jurgen Klopp, the belief was he would use his compatriot in a similar way to the national team while relegating Diaz to the bench, at best.
Yet here we are, five games into the season and Diaz has arguably been Liverpool’s best player.
The Liverpool No7 is the club’s top scorer having found the back of the net on five occasions. For context, he had to wait until February last season to score his fifth Premier League goal of the season.
Only Erling Haaland (10) has more than Diaz in the 24/25 Premier League. The former Porto man has the sixth highest expected goals (xG) haul in the English top-flight this term and he ranks third behind Haaland and Ollie Watkins for 'big chances'.
Last season, his performances in front of goal could best be described as frustrating. This season, he’s been utterly devastating.
There’s a ruthless streak to his game that he’s shown on just one other occasion throughout his career in Europe.
In his first two seasons in Portugal, his finishing could best be described as average. His xG total tallied up with his actual output. In the final few months before his move to Liverpool, he was running exceptionally hot as a finisher.
He had 14 goals across 1,491 minutes from an xG haul of 12.2. He was getting higher value opportunities and he was clinical.
It was the perfect storm.
Unfortunately, he had failed to replicate these numbers for Liverpool following his £37million move in January 2022.
Across his first 18 months at Anfield, his finishing was, once again, average. Last season, he was wasteful, finishing with eight goals (a career-best for the Reds) from an xG total of 11.9.
It was a significant underperformance. He was an unreliable finisher despite being a consistent, reliable goal threat. But this is what made him replaceable.
Now though, he’s recaptured the form he was showing for Porto before the switch to the Premier League.
He’s composed in the box and clinical in key moments.
Of his 13 shots this season, eight have been on target. He’s managed to work the keeper with 62% of his attempts.
For a bit of context, last season that figure was 34%. Diaz is having a similar number of efforts per 90 (3.2) as well. Is his shot placement better because he’s getting into higher-value positions? Perhaps.
Is his shot placement better because he’s worked on his finishing? Again, perhaps.
But what is noticeable when looking at the data is the former. His xG per 90 average is coming in at 0.62, up from the 0.40 he averaged last term.
More impressively, however, is his expected goals on target (xGOT) total. That has risen from 0.3 to 1.0. Whereas last season, he was devaluing his efforts with his shot placement/finishing, this term he’s been able to add serious value to his attempts.
The increase in xG shows the chances he’s getting are better. That is indisputable. But then the spike in xGOT shows he’s finishing better than ever before. The player deserves credit for this upturn in output.
But Slot deserves credit for constructing a system that gets Diaz into better areas on a regular basis.
It has been a transformative tweak, with people suggesting Diaz in this form is like a new signing for the Reds.
He was never surplus to requirements but he was the one many would’ve sacrificed in the summer.
Now he’s one of the first names on the teamsheet and there are even some reports that a new deal is in the offing for the Colombia international. It would be well deserved.
If this form becomes the norm for Diaz, he could fire the Reds to an unlikely title challenge.
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