Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Liverpool to win at evens (General)
BuildABet @ 8/1
- Liverpool to win
- Real Madrid 6+ corners
- Mohamed Salah to score anytime
This was supposed to be the transitional season for Liverpool. A campaign filled with unpredictable ups and downs where a solid, but ultimately successful, battle for the top four would have been viewed as a positive.
It certainly wasn't supposed to be one in which they sit eight points clear at the top of the Premier League table before we've even hit December.
Any title talk at this stage is always premature and yet it's irresistible given their commanding position. Some bookmakers go as big as 17/20 that they see the job through - that is certainly eye-catching.
That superb form has carried into Europe's elite competition too as they also top the standings after four games. Confidence couldn't be higher ahead of a blockbuster meeting with Real Madrid on Wednesday.
What are the best bets?
You can only imagine that Jürgen Klopp is looking on in disbelief that this is the one season where Pep Guardiola's Manchester City are in the midst of a collapse.
But even if City were at their usual elite standards, the likelihood is that Liverpool would still sit in first - they've just been that good.
So not only are we at a stage where a LIVERPOOL WIN is priced at even money, it's also a price that delivers big appeal.
Slot's side have scored at least twice in 12 of their last 14 games across all competitions, a stat that highlights their attacking strength, while Real haven't quite hit their usual high level of performance.
Just three of their seven away games this season have ended in victory with Lille securing a 1-0 win in their only game on the road in this competition so far.
Those three were also against sides currently sat 10th or lower in the LaLiga table. AC Milan and Barcelona have beaten them in recent outings at the Bernabéu.
I wouldn't trust this Real defence in its current state to keep their opponents out. Injuries have forced them into fielding a four which is slightly makeshift - hardly ideal against this flowing Liverpool attack.
The Reds have averaged 1.97 expected goals (xG) created per Premier League outing this season - the third-best in the league - while the figure sits at 2.60 in the Champions League - again, that is the third-best.
And with Real conceding 1.79 expected goals against (xGA) on average in this competition, the mismatch should lead to a home win.
Team news
Liverpool opted to sit Trent Alexander-Arnold out of the weekend win over Southampton and they remain hopeful he'll be fit enough to face Real.
Federico Chiesa could also be in line for a return to the squad following his return to team training in a boost to Slot's attacking options.
Caoimhin Kelleher should continue in place of injured goalkeeper Alisson Becker though, while striker Diogo Jota will also miss out.
Carlo Ancelotti has revealed that Rodrygo, Aurelien Tchouameni and Lucas Vazquez could be available for Wednesday's trip to Anfield.
Éder Militão and Dani Carvajal are out for the season though, while David Alaba is also not ready for a return leaving them limited on numbers in defence.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool XI: Kelleher; Alexander-Arnold, Konaté, van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch, Szoboszlai; Salah, Núñez, Díaz.
Real Madrid XI: Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rüdiger, García; Camavinga, Modrić, Bellingham; Güler, Mbappé, Vinícius Jr.
Match facts
- Liverpool won their first three games against Real Madrid in European competition (between 1981 and 2009), however they’re winless in their eight meetings since then, suffering seven defeats (D1).
- Real Madrid are the team that Liverpool have lost most often against in European competition (7). Indeed, among sides they’ve faced 5+ times in Europe, they’re also the opponent they have lost the highest percentage of their games against (64% - seven losses in 11 games).
- Liverpool are the only team with a 100% record in the UEFA Champions League this season, winning all four games. The only previous time they’ve won their first five matches in a major European campaign was in 2021-22 (won first seven).
- Real Madrid have lost two of their last three UEFA Champions League matches (W1), as many as they had in their previous 28 games combined (W20 D6). They have never lost three games in a single group phase in a season before.
- Half of Liverpool’s goals in the UEFA Champions League this season have been scored following crosses (5/10), with their five such goals being the most of any side. Each of their last three goals from crosses in the competition have been assisted by Mohamed Salah (one v Bologna and two v Bayer Leverkusen).
- Real Madrid have only been ahead on the scoreboard for 12% of their total match time in the UEFA Champions League this season (47 minutes and 10 seconds overall). Meanwhile, Liverpool have been ahead for 64% of their minutes played in the competition this term; the highest percentage of any team across the opening four matchdays.
- Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappé has scored 49 goals in 77 appearances in the UEFA Champions League. If he finds the net in this game, he’ll be the fourth-quickest player to 50 goals in the competition (78th appearance), behind Ruud van Nistelrooy (62), Lionel Messi (66) and Robert Lewandowski (77).
- Since the start of last season (and as of the end of MD4), the three midfielders/forwards who’ve created the most chances from open play in the UEFA Champions League are all current Real Madrid players: Jude Bellingham (32), Vinícius Júnior (31) and Kylian Mbappé (31).
- Ryan Gravenberch has recovered possession 30 times in the UEFA Champions League this season; the most by any central midfielder in the opening four matchdays. Meanwhile, the Dutchman has completed 93% of his passes in the competition this term; the highest of any Liverpool player (min. 50 pass attempts).
Odds correct at 1130 GMT (25/11/24)
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