Liverpool vs Man City betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Super Sunday
1pt Manchester City to win at 5/2 (Unibet)
1.5pts Andy Robertson to commit 1+ fouls at 11/8 (bet365)
0.5pt Andy Robertson to be shown a card at 19/5 (Unibet)
BuildABet @ 27/1
- Manchester City to win
- Robertson to commit 2+ fouls
- Both teams to score
Football always tends towards the hyperbolic, but even the most measured must have been excited by the all out collapse we're witnessing at Manchester City.
As far as on-pitch crises go, they're giving a grand performance, this everlasting November uncertainty a glorious break from the predictable efficiency of the Pep Guardiola era.
He reached a new nadir on Tuesday night with a very public unravelling after City's collapse against Feyenoord; 24 hours later Liverpool's serene start to life under Arne Slot continued.
Victory over Real Madrid took Slot's astonishing start to life at Anfield to 15 wins from 17 matches.
There really ought to be only one outcome on Sunday.
Ought to be.
What are the best bets?
Guardiola must still be rueing his midweek triple substitution.
Prior to replacing Nathan Ake, Ilkay Gundogan and Phil Foden with Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, James McAtee and Kevin De Bruyne in the 68th minute, it had all gone to plan. Finally, he'd begun to fix things.
The recently profligate Erling Haaland had scored two of City's three goals, and a recently fragile defence hadn't allowed a significant opportunity, giving up just 0.21 expected goals and no chance greater than 0.09 xG.
Three subsequent pieces of poor defending and goalkeeping offered Feyenoord a route to parity. They obliged.
Lesson learned. Surely. And just in time.
It might seem ridiculous to make the case for City in their darkest hour, but they can be backed at 5/2, the first time they have gone into a Premier League match as outsiders since April 2017, with the champions a top price of 6/4 for draw no bet.
At that price, I'm prepared to back MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN.
There is no escaping the fact Liverpool have been superb under Slot, but it has not been as simple as the table suggests - especially over the past two months.
Five of their last six wins have come via a one-goal margin.
Southampton gave them quite the scare last weekend, as did Brighton before the international break. In between, Aston Villa were unfortunate to leave Anfield empty handed. It's a pattern that goes back much further too, as having returned from October's hiatus with a hard-fought win over Chelsea they then scraped a draw at injury-hit Arsenal.
This all plays out in the underlying numbers, with xG data suggesting the Reds have been a touch fortunate to build an eight-point lead at the top heading into matchday 13, with 25 rather than 31 points a more accurate reflection of how they have performed so far this season.
To add further support to the selection, Liverpool have struggled to click in their last three post-Champions League fixtures.
The 4-0 hammering of Leverkusen was followed by a sticky win over Villa, victory in Leipzig by a leggy performance at The Emirates and having beaten Bologna at Anfield they dug out a 1-0 win at struggling Crystal Palace.
Ultimately though, this comes down to price - when will we ever get the chance to back City at 5/2 again?
Rusty Robertson
During an otherwise superb start for Liverpool, ANDY ROBERTSON is a player who has repeatedly looked off the pace. It's an issue Slot has been asked about, with the Dutchman explaining they have had to nurse the Scotland captain back to full fitness after a disrupted pre-season.
There are few signs that the 30-year-old is adapting, giving away penalties in successive matches at Southampton and at home to Madrid.
After teenager Tyler Dibling gave Robertson a difficult 90 minutes last weekend and Lucas Vázquez drew a foul in the penalty area just three minutes after coming off the bench in midweek, it would be a surprise if City didn't target him as a glaring Liverpool weakness.
The 11/8 about him TO COMMIT 1+ FOULS is therefore worth taking.
His fouls per 90 of 0.56 this season makes it value in that sense, too.
Going a step further, it remains a mystery how Robertson has been booked only twice in all competitions this season, somehow avoiding being SHOWN A CARD for both spot-kicks conceded over the past week.
At 19/5 for him to be shown one on Sunday, it's worth backing his good fortune to run out.
Team news
Liverpool could have Trent Alexander-Arnold back after he returned to the bench for the win over Madrid, a match stand-in Conor Bradley limped off in.
Ibrahima Konate also picked up a knock but should be ok.
Manchester City had Ruben Dias back as a substitute in midweek, though it's unclear whether he'll be fit to start at Anfield.
John Stones is doubtful having missed the draw with Feyenoord. Mateo Kovacic is still out, joining long-term absentees Rodri and Oscar Bobb.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool: Kelleher; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch, Jones; Salah, Núnez, Díaz.
Man City: Ederson; Lewis, Akanji, Ake, Gvardiol; Foden, Gundogan, De Bruyne; Silva, Haaland, Savinho.
Match facts
- Liverpool have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Manchester City (D5 L3), a 1-0 home victory in October 2022.
- Manchester City have won just one of their last 21 Premier League away games against Liverpool (D7 L13), beating them 4-1 in February 2021. They’ve not won at Anfield with fans in attendance since May 2003 (2-1).
- The away side has won just six of the 54 Premier League meetings between Liverpool and Manchester City, the lowest percentage of any fixture to be played more than 30 times in the competition (11%).
- Manchester City have won five of their last six Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table (D1). However, their last such defeat was a 3-1 loss against Liverpool at Anfield in November 2019, with the Reds going on to lift the title that season.
- Liverpool’s only Premier League defeat so far this season was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest at Anfield. They’ve won seven of their eight league games since then (D1), scoring at least twice in seven of those games.
- Manchester City have lost their last three Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 47 combined (W35 D9). They last lost four consecutive league games between April-August 2008, while they last did so in the same season between January-March 2007 (5).
- In his managerial career, Man City’s Pep Guardiola has only lost more games against Tottenham (9) than he has against Liverpool (8). Indeed, he’s won just six of his 22 meetings with the Reds (27%), his lowest win rate against any side he’s faced more than five times in all competitions.
- This will be Arne Slot’s first meeting with both Manchester City and their manager Pep Guardiola. None of Liverpool’s last six managers have lost their first ever league meeting with England’s reigning champions (W4 D2), since Roy Evans’ 1-0 loss to Manchester United in 1993-94.
- As well as having the most goals and assists combined in the Premier League this season (16), Mohamed Salah’s goal involvements have also been worth a league-high 17 points to Liverpool this term.
- Three of Ilkay Gündogan’s four Premier League goals against Liverpool have come at Anfield, with no Man City player scoring more away against the Reds in the competition’s history (Nicolas Anelka also three). His next appearance will be his 200th in the Premier League, while if Man City win here, he would be the third player to win as many as 150 of his first 200 appearances in the competition (currently 149 – Bernardo Silva won 153 and Ederson 151 of first 200).
Odds correct at 1420 GMT (28/11/24)
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