Liverpool vs Chelsea betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Super Sunday
2.5pts Liverpool to win and under 4.5 goals at 11/8 (General)
1pt Liverpool to win and under 2.5 goals at 5/1 (General)
1pt Levi Colwill to be shown a card at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Virgil van Dijk to score anytime at 10/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w Ibrahima Konate to score first at 33/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
BuildABet @ 19/1
- Liverpool to win
- Colwill to be shown a card
- Van Dijk 1+ total shots
- Konate 1+ total shots
For the third time already this season the Premier League is back, and what a treat we have in store on a genuinely Super Sunday; perhaps that's why I've got a little carried way with my staking plan...
It really is an intriguing fixture between two of the division's established big hitters, something we can properly get our teeth stuck into before, during or after our roast beef. I know the traditionalists will argue for closer to 3pm but I'll always push for later in the afternoon, sorry.
I'm quite happy to stick my neck out in a similarly brazen, but perhaps less controversial way and suggest that by the time we're on to our apple crumble, it would be a shock if the team in red hasn't clearly demonstrated its superiority over the team in blue.
What are the best bets?
Arne Slot and Enzo Maresca should be applauded for the starts they've made at their respective clubs having walked into starkly contrasting situations; the Liverpool manager replacing a legend and the Chelsea boss inheriting quite the mess.
Both have been fortunate though, each able to get accustomed to new surroundings while facing just one of last season's top eight clubs. This marks the start of much sterner runs, with five of Liverpool's and six of Chelsea's next eight league games against 2023/24's top seven.
LIVERPOOL entered this weekend top of the table with only a 1-0 home defeat by Nottingham Forest denying them a 100% start.
It's not just their position four points clear of their opponents - who have won four and drawn two games since an opening weekend loss to Manchester City - that makes them worth backing at Anfield.
Defensively they have been sensational, conceding by far the fewest goals in the division (two) and allowing by far the fewest expected goals against (xGA) at 5.2.
The Reds haven't been as swashbuckling as under Jurgen Klopp, demonstrating greater control - despite being top they've scored the joint-fifth most goals.
Of their 10 games in all competitions, only West Ham's capitulation in the Carabao Cup did not go UNDER 4.5 GOALS and even that required a stoppage-time brace from Cody Gakpo to push the final scoreline to 5-1.
Taking the 11/8 double represents value as it's a significantly bigger price than we can manually build ourselves. The bookies' margin takes under 3.5 off the table but that is not the case for LIVERPOOL TO WIN AND UNDER 2.5 GOALS which is available at a juicy 5/1.
Half of Liverpool's games in all competitions and half of their Premier League wins have gone unders this season.
Despite Chelsea's reputation for all-out attack due to 6-2 and 4-2 wins over Wolves and Brighton, four of their other five league games have seen under 2.5 goals.
Capitalise on Chelsea defensive crisis
A further factor in Liverpool's favour is the suspension of Chelsea defenders Marc Cucurella and Wesley Fofana, both of whom have started every league game.
It means two of Tosin Adarabioyo, Axel Disasi and Renato Veiga will come in, with either Veiga or LEVI COLWILL playing at left-back. Whatever the reshuffle, Colwill will have to do far more work than usual on the left-hand side. With the small matter of Mohamed Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold and whoever the Reds select as their central striker to deal with, his 4/1 price TO BE SHOWN A CARD is of interest.
There have been cards aplenty in both these teams' matches this season, with 52 across Liverpool's 10 games in all competitions and 49 in the Blues' seven top-flight games, with it more accurate to just look at Chelsea's league fixtures given their European matches are in the Conference League.
Even accounting for the record-breaking 14 cards at Bournemouth, it's still 35 across the six other.
Unsurprisingly, as a result there is little to go at in terms of booking points and most players are too short to be carded, which is what makes COLWILL - already booked twice in seven league matches - such a standout selection given the task at hand.
The set-piece blues?
Only Wolves and Southampton have conceded more Premier League goals from set-pieces than Chelsea this season, and the disruption to their defence has me keen to back both Liverpool centre-backs to find the net at double-figure prices.
VIRGIL VAN DIJK was the match-winner at Wembley in February when these sides met in the Carabao Cup final. No matter which defender Chelsea switched to mark him they simply could not get a grip of the Reds captain, with his goal almost inevitable.
He has scored once so far in 2024/25, during Liverpool's Champions League win at Milan, with IBRAHIMA KONATE also finding the net at the San Siro.
The Frenchman has scored twice in his last five appearances with his second goal coming in victory at Wolves.
Konate has had the same number of attempts on goal as his skipper (six) but accumulated 0.81 expected goals (xG) to Van Dijk's 0.60, managing to get much closer to the goal and therefore on the end of higher-quality chances.
- CLICK HERE to back Virgil van Dijk to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Ibrahima Konate to score first e.w with Sky Bet
The option to back Konate each-way at 33/1 to score first with bet365, giving us the equivalent of his anytime price, is something I just cannot leave alone.
Team news
Liverpool remain without goalkeeper Alisson and midfielder Harvey Elliott.
Alexis Mac Allister went off injured at half-time against Crystal Palace but started for Argentina against Bolivia in midweek so should be available. Fellow midfielder Curtis Jones is available after returning to training following the birth of his daughter.
Italy forward Federico Chiesa missed the Reds' past two games and the international break, but could return to the squad.
Chelsea defenders Marc Cucurella and Wesley Fofana are suspended, with a combination of Tosin Adarabioyo, Axel Disasi and Renato Veiga likely to come in.
Full-back Reece James has returned to full training but is unlikely to feature.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool: Kelleher; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Diaz, Szoboszlai, Salah; Jota.
Chelsea: Sanchez; Gusto, Adarabioyo, Colwill, Veiga; Caicedo, Fernandez; Madueke, Palmer, Sancho; Jackson.
Match facts
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last six Premier League meetings with Chelsea, though five of these have ended level (W1).
- Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League away games against Liverpool (D5 L3), going down 4-1 in this exact fixture last season.
- Having lost three consecutive league games against Chelsea between 2013 and 2014, Liverpool have now lost just two of their last 19 against the Blues (W7 D10).
- Liverpool have conceded the fewest goals (2), kept the most clean sheets (5), and have the lowest expected goals against figure (5.2) of any side in the Premier League this season. Meanwhile, only
- Manchester City (17) have scored more goals than Chelsea (16) in the division this term, and only Tottenham boast a higher xG (15.0) than the Blues (14.7).
- Along with Liverpool, Chelsea are one of two sides with a 100% away win rate in the Premier League this season (3/3). Only in 2005-06 (4) and 2008-09 (8) have the Blues ever won their opening four away matches of a league season.
- In the 266 minutes Liverpool’s Premier League games have been level on the scoreline this season, the Reds have faced just 16 shots, an average of 5.4 per 90. This is both the lowest total faced and per 90 faced when drawing of any side in the competition this term.
- Chelsea’s Enzo Maresca is looking to become only the fifth manager to win each of his first four away Premier League games, with one of the previous four to do so being his counterpart in this match, Liverpool’s Arne Slot (also Bobby Gould, John Gregory, and Luiz Felipe Scolari).
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has four goals in 13 Premier League games against former side Chelsea, averaging a goal every 257 minutes against the Blues. Among opponents he has played 10+ times in the competition, only against Burnley (778) does he have a poorer mins-per-goal rate.
- Only Dominic Solanke (24) has made more targeted runs into the box in the Premier League this season than Liverpool’s Diogo Jota (22). The Portuguese forward has 11 goal involvements in his last 12 league starts (7 goals, 4 assists), and five in his last six at Anfield (4 goals, 1 assist).
- Chelsea pair Cole Palmer (11) and Noni Madueke (4) have created 15 chances for each other in the Premier League this season, the most of any duo. Indeed, Palmer’s four assists for Madueke is also the most from one player for a teammate so far this term.
Odds correct at 1120 BST (18/10/24)
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